"14th Five-Year Plan" new energy industry development has a long way to go

Data from the National Energy Administration press conference on February 13 show that in 2022, China's wind power and photovoltaic power generation exceeded 1 trillion KWH, reaching 1.19 trillion KWH, which is close to the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's renewable energy will further lead the mainstream direction of energy production and consumption revolution, play a leading role in green and low-carbon energy transformation, and provide the main support for achieving the goal of carbon peak carbon neutrality.

"14th Five-Year Plan" new energy development shows new features

On June 1, 2022, nine departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). The plan proposes to develop and efficiently use renewable energy on a large scale, and accelerate the cultivation of new models and new forms of business. By 2025, the total consumption of renewable energy will reach about 1 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for about 18% of primary energy consumption. Annual renewable energy generation reached 3.3 trillion KWH, and wind and solar power generation (5.260, 0.03, 0.57%) doubled; The weight of total renewable energy power and non-hydropower consumption responsibility reached about 33% and 18% respectively, and the utilization rate was kept at a reasonable level. The scale of non-electric utilization of solar thermal energy, geothermal energy heating, biomass heating and biomass fuel has reached more than 60 million tons of standard coal. "Planning" for the first time in the form of joint issuance of nine departments, reflecting that the use of renewable energy to achieve "both large-scale development, but also a high level of consumption, more to ensure the stable and reliable supply of electricity", must rely on energy, finance, natural resources, ecological environment, housing, agriculture and rural departments between the coordination mechanism.

Under the background of "double carbon", the task of high-quality development of new energy is arduous, and new and higher requirements are put forward for detailed investigation of resources, land and sea use, meteorological services, ecological environment, finance and other aspects of finance and finance, and it is urgent to improve the land, finance and other support policies related to the development of renewable energy, and strengthen policy coordination.

"14th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of new energy will show new characteristics: first, large-scale development, on the basis of leapfrog development, further accelerate the increase in the proportion of installed power generation; Second, high-proportion development, from the incremental supplement of energy and electricity consumption to the incremental main body, the proportion of energy and electricity consumption increased rapidly; Third, market-oriented development, from subsidy-supported development to affordable and low-cost development, from policy-driven development to market-driven development; Fourth, high-quality development, both large-scale development, but also a high level of consumption, more to ensure the stable and reliable supply of electricity.

Renewable energy underpayment problem is expected to usher in "living water"

From 2021, newly approved onshore wind power projects and photovoltaic projects will be fully connected to the Internet at parity, and the state will no longer subsidize them. Since 2022, the newly approved offshore wind power project countries will no longer subsidize, and the total demand for wind power photovoltaic state subsidies will basically close. With the accumulation of time, the renewable energy subsidy gap continues to expand, and the issue of subsidies has become a chronic disease that hinders the high-quality development of the renewable energy industry. According to the rough calculation of the wind energy Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, by the end of 2021, the total amount of arrears in subsidies is about 400 billion yuan.

Since 2022, the issue of renewable energy subsidies has repeatedly appeared in the policy documents of relevant state departments, and the problem of renewable energy subsidies arrears is expected to usher in a turnaround. The Announcement of the State Grid Co., Ltd. on the allocation of the first renewable energy Price Additional subsidy funds in the 2022 annual budget shows that the Ministry of Finance is expected to allocate about 33.9 billion yuan of the annual budget of the company's renewable energy price additional subsidy funds. Among them, wind power generation is about 10.5 billion yuan, solar power is about 26 billion yuan, and biomass power is about 3.35 billion yuan. In August 2022, the grid company led the establishment of two major settlement companies in order to unlock the "knot" of subsidy arrears. With the issuance of subsidies, renewable energy underpayment ushered in "living water", and the pressure on related "scenery" companies' accounts receivable will be eased.

In the future, as the problem of subsidy funding gap is gradually solved, the operating conditions of renewable energy power generation enterprises will be improved, the cash flow pressure will be alleviated, the long-term investment ability of enterprises will be enhanced, and the development of the industry will form a virtuous circle.

In May 2022, The General Office of the State Council forwarded the Implementation Plan of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in the New Era, focusing on the difficulties and blocking points of the development of new energy. Improve policy measures in seven aspects: innovating development and utilization models, building new power systems, deepening the reform of "discharge and management services", supporting and guiding the healthy development of industries, ensuring reasonable space demand, giving full play to the benefits of ecological and environmental protection, and improving fiscal and financial policies. Put forward fiscal and financial measures to support the development of new energy.

Distributed photovoltaic development prospects are broad, but still need to solve the phased problems

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the "whole county promotion" and "big base" will largely determine the scale and competitive pattern of photovoltaic development, and countless enterprises will compete fiercely around these two key words. Under the background of "dual carbon", photovoltaic development prospects are broad.

On June 29, 2022, the "Action Plan for Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments proposed to support qualified industrial enterprises and industrial parks to build industrial green microgrids, accelerate the development and operation of integrated systems such as distributed photovoltaic, distributed wind power, efficient heat pump, waste heat and pressure utilization, and smart energy management and control, and promote the efficient and complementary use of multi-energy. Encourage the purchase of green electricity through the electricity market, and use renewable energy at a large scale and in a high proportion nearby. Promote the innovation and upgrading of smart photovoltaic and the application of industry characteristics, innovate the "photovoltaic +" model, and promote the diversified layout of photovoltaic power generation. In order to accelerate the development of rooftop distributed PV, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on submitting the Pilot Program for the development of rooftop distributed PV in the whole county (city, district) in June 2021. On September 14 of the same year, the National Energy Administration officially issued the "Notice on the announcement of the whole county (city, district) roof distributed photovoltaic development pilot List", there are 676 whole counties (city, district) in the country, which is listed as the roof distributed photovoltaic development pilot. At present, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hainan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangxi and other places have officially issued the entire county (city, district) roof distributed photovoltaic policies.

According to the "2022 China Distributed Photovoltaic Industry Development White Paper" released in November 2022, under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, China's distributed photovoltaic market will develop more strongly in 2022. From January to September 2022, China's new installed installed capacity of distributed PV was 35.3 GW, an increase of 115% compared with the same period in 2021. From the perspective of the development model, the "whole county promotion" has a far-reaching impact on the domestic distributed photovoltaic market in 2022, prompting more enterprises and funds to enter the field of distributed photovoltaic. From the perspective of market players, more and more central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have established energy investment companies, using existing resources and capital advantages to enter the national distributed photovoltaic market.

However, the whole county to promote the overall outbreak of distributed, not only bright prospects, in the industry to vigorously promote the development of distributed photovoltaic into the fast lane at the same time, the industry is still facing many difficulties, challenges and even hidden dangers. How to balance the game between the government and the market economy is still a problem, and the balance of the rights and interests of the government, users, investors, installers, equipment manufacturers, operation and maintenance providers, financing providers and millions of practitioners is still the biggest difficulty in policy implementation. To this end, the National Energy Administration put forward five principles: voluntary no coercion, pilot no approval, in place no offside, competition no monopoly, work no suspension. With the implementation of relevant policies and regulatory measures, distributed photovoltaic is expected to crack the phased problems and enter a new stage of high-quality development.