Where is the future global renewable energy development "high ground"?

The Sunnylands Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to address the Climate Crisis issued by China and the United States (hereinafter referred to as the "Sunnylands Statement") states that in the critical decade of the 2020s, the two countries support efforts to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy globally by 2030, as outlined in the G20 Leaders' Declaration. It also plans to fully accelerate the deployment of renewable energy in both countries between now and 2030 at 2020 levels to accelerate the replacement of coal and oil generation, so that a meaningful absolute reduction in emissions from the power sector can be expected after peaking.

In the view of the industry, "tripling global renewable energy installed capacity by 2030" is a difficult but achievable goal that requires countries to work together to eliminate development bottlenecks and contribute to achieving this goal. Under the guidance of this goal, in the future, the world's new energy based on wind power and photovoltaic will enter the fast track of development.

●● "Is a difficult but achievable goal"

According to the report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency, by the end of 2022, the global installed capacity of renewable energy was 3,372 GW, an increase of 295 GW, a growth rate of 9.6%. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower accounted for the highest, reaching 39.69%, the installed capacity of solar power accounted for 30.01%, the installed capacity of wind power accounted for 25.62%, and the installed capacity of biological energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy accounted for about 5%.

"World leaders have been pushing to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030. This target is equivalent to increasing the installed capacity of renewable energy to 11TW by 2030." "This is a difficult but achievable goal" and is necessary to achieve net zero emissions, according to a report published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. While the last tripling of renewable energy capacity took 12 years (2010-2022), this tripling must be done in eight years, requiring concerted global action to remove bottlenecks.

Zhang Shiguo, executive director and secretary general of the New Energy Overseas Development Alliance, pointed out in an interview with China Energy News: "This goal is very encouraging, in the current critical period of global new energy development, from a macro perspective to expand the total amount and scale of global new energy installed capacity, for promoting global response to climate change, especially low-carbon development, it is of great significance."

In Zhang Shiguo's view, the current global development of renewable energy has a good technical and industrial foundation. "For example, in September 2019, China's first 10 MW offshore wind turbine officially went offline; In November 2023, China's largest 18MW direct drive offshore wind turbine with fully independent intellectual property rights was successfully offline. In just over four years, technology has advanced by leaps and bounds. At the same time, China's solar power generation technology is also developing at an unprecedented speed. These technologies are the physical basis for achieving the triple goal."

"In addition, our industrial supporting capacity is also constantly improving, and the world has been working hard to promote the high-quality development of new energy equipment manufacturing in the past two years." In addition to the installed quality, the efficiency indicators and energy consumption indicators of wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen and other equipment have also been greatly improved, creating good conditions for supporting the rapid development of renewable energy." Zhang Shiguo said.

●● Different regions contribute differently to the global goals

According to the report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency, the increase in global renewable energy installed capacity in 2022 is mainly concentrated in a few countries and regions such as Asia, the United States and Europe. According to the data, nearly half of the new installed capacity in 2022 will come from Asia, with China becoming the largest contributor with 141 GW of new installed capacity. Africa will add 2.7 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in 2022, bringing the total installed capacity to 59 gigawatts, accounting for only 2% of the global total.

In a related report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance pointed out that the contribution of different regions to the goal of tripling global renewable energy installations varies. "For regions that are early adopters of renewable energy, such as China, the United States and Europe, tripling renewable capacity is a reasonable target. Other markets, particularly those with a smaller renewable energy base and higher electricity demand growth, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, will need to more than triple their installed capacity by 2030. In these markets, the use of cheap renewable energy is not only critical to the energy transition, but also to delivering electricity to millions of people. At the same time, there are markets that already generate the majority of their electricity from renewables or other low-carbon sources, and these markets are likely to contribute less to the tripling of global renewables installations."

Zhang Shiguo believes: "In the next five years, the main battlefield of renewable energy installed capacity growth is still China, India, Europe, North America, Brazil as the representative of Latin America will also have some important opportunities." Renewable energy installations in places like Central Asia, Africa, and even South America may not grow as fast because of natural endowments, grid systems, industrialization and other factors. New energy resources in the Middle East, especially the light conditions are very good, how to convert these resource endowments into real renewable energy installed capacity, is an important factor to achieve the triple goal, which requires industrial innovation and supporting measures to support the development of renewable energy."

●● Need to eliminate development bottlenecks

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that compared with photovoltaic power generation, wind power installation targets require more joint action by multiple sectors to achieve. Reasonable installation structure is very important. If there is too much reliance on PV, the amount of electricity and emissions reductions achieved by tripling the installed capacity of renewable energy will be very different.

"Barriers to grid connection for renewable energy developers should be removed, competitive bidding should be supported, and companies should be encouraged to enter into power purchase agreements. Governments also need to invest in the grid, streamline the project approval process, and ensure that the market for electricity capacity and ancillary services promotes the flexibility of the power system to better absorb renewables." Bloomberg New Energy Finance pointed out in the report.

Specifically to China, Lin Mingche, director of the China Energy Transition Project of the Natural Resources Defense Association, pointed out to the reporter of China Energy News: "At present, China's wind power and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing capacity and installed capacity rank first in the world, and it is also significantly increasing production capacity." The goal of tripling renewable energy installations is one of China's best opportunities to reduce carbon emissions, as it allows for rapid roll-out of renewable energy-related technologies and continues to reduce costs as economies of scale emerge. "But authorities need to build more infrastructure, such as transmission lines and storage, for renewable energy to absorb a high proportion of volatility, and introduce more favorable policies, sound market mechanisms, and increase system flexibility."

"There is still a lot of room for the development of renewable energy in China, but there will also be some challenges, such as energy security challenges, and how to coordinate traditional energy and new energy challenges, which need to be addressed," Zhang said.