Supply and demand are still tight, and the new ship market is booming

LNG carrier market outlook: in 2023, the LNG carrier market is still expected to maintain a high prosperity

The hot market of LNG carrier market in 2023 May cool down, but the market heat will still be better than most previous years. Based on the expectation of the continued tight supply and demand of LNG shipping in the past two years, ship owners are strongly willing to place orders for new ships, and the new orders received by LNG carriers in 2020-2022 are 6.75 million and 14.15 million CGT, respectively, continuing to hit a record high. LNG new ship prices have also continued to rise since 2021, and the recent correction in freight rates has not had much impact on the LNG carrier market, and new ship prices have continued to hit new highs. In 2022, a total of 71 new shipbuilding orders for the first phase of Qatar's 100 Ships Program will come into effect, with deliveries expected to start in 2024 and peak in 2026. According to the shipping industry of wechat public number, it is expected that the second phase of Qatar's "100 ships plan" new shipbuilding orders will take effect from 2023. According to the disclosure of Hudong Zhonghua, its LNG carrier orders have been scheduled to 2028, the shipyard capacity will continue to be tight, it is expected that the cost of LNG carriers may continue to rise, but with the correction of freight rates and ship prices continue to rise, it is expected that the large LNG carrier market in 2023 is difficult to continue the high boom in 2022. But orders are still pouring in for some projects.

In 2022, China made a historic breakthrough in the field of LNG carriers, capturing about 30% of the market share. Due to high technology, high difficulty and high added value, large LNG carriers are regarded as the "crown jewel" of the shipbuilding industry, which has long been monopolized by South Korean enterprises. In 2022, the global shipyard capacity continues to be tight, and China has made a historic breakthrough in the field of LNG carriers. In 2022, Chinese shipyards won nearly 30% of the global LNG transport new ship orders, of which Hudong Zhonghua accounted for 70% of the orders. Some ship companies such as Jiangnan Shipbuilding and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Group have also achieved zero breakthroughs in large orders. Overall, in 2022, the global LNG carrier orders totaled 316, 52.281 million cubic meters. New ship orders are mainly undertaken by Chinese and South Korean shipping companies, Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, Samsung Heavy Industries, Hudong Zhonghua, Hyundai Heavy Industries to undertake more than 90% of the world's LNG ship orders. In terms of capacity, more than 90 percent of the newly delivered ships are from South Korean shipping companies. The global energy transition combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed LNG shipping into an incremental era. Looking forward to 2023, it is expected that the LNG shipping market and construction market will remain hot, and Chinese shipyards are expected to win more market shares with their increasing technical strength and manufacturing capacity.

Car ro-ro shipment: The hot market in 2023 will continue

Automobile shipping market outlook: In 2023, the supply and demand relationship can not be effectively alleviated, and freight rates are expected to remain high

The rapid growth of China's automobile export volume has led to an increase in global automobile shipping turnover. In recent years, with the comprehensive improvement of China's global comparative advantage in supporting the new energy automobile industry chain and the product competitive strength of Chinese automobile brands, China's automobile export volume has increased significantly. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association in January 2023, in 2022, due to the lack of overseas supply and the substantial strengthening of the export competitiveness of Chinese automobile enterprises, automobile exports exceeded 3 million, reaching 3,111,000, an increase of 54.4%. With the growth of China's automobile export volume, especially the significant increase of automobiles shipped to Europe, the global automobile maritime turnover has grown rapidly. According to Clarksons' forecast, the growth rate of global automobile shipping turnover in 2023-24 will reach 5.1% and 5.6% respectively.

The growth of vehicle ro-ro shipping capacity in recent years has been weak, and the growth of capacity in 2023 has remained low. From 2016 to 2020, there are almost no new orders for global RO-ro ships, resulting in weak growth of RO-RO ship capacity in recent years. According to Clarksons data, capacity growth is negative in 2019-2020, and there is a small increase in 2021-2022. With the sharp growth of China's automobile exports and global automobile shipping turnover in the past two years, shipping supply and demand continue to be tight, and freight prices have soared. There is a significant increase in new ship orders in 2021-22, but this will not translate quickly into capacity, and capacity growth is expected to remain low in 2023.