Global orders for new ships increased by nearly 300%, and the shipbuilding market cycle has turned around.

Han Jun said that since the second half of last year, the rise in ship rentals has not yet reached a turning point, which has also made the freight rate center continue to increase. At the same time, the container ship new build price index increased by only 24% year on year in September 2021, so many shipowners are placing orders in the hope of replacing higher-cost charter vessels with new capacity.

According to the analysis of Everbright Securities, since the second half of last year, the container ship, bulk carrier transport market has significantly improved, the downstream demand for energy-saving and environmentally friendly new ship products continues to rise, ship prices, freight rates rise, good ship leasing industry; It is expected that China's ship leasing companies will further grow on the basis of the subsequent annual investment level of $15 billion.

But as Han Jun said, although the ship leasing market is hot, the two sides of the transaction also have a game. The reporter noted that when COSCO Sea Control signed the latest shipbuilding contract, it said that OOCL and its subsidiaries can benefit from the optimization of the fleet structure and reduce the dependence on the ship leasing market. It can be seen that the shipowner company also hopes to seize the initiative in the case of a better market.

Shipbuilding cycle market is not clear

Since last year, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the balance of the global supply chain, and some cyclical industries have gone into reverse against the backdrop of supply-demand imbalance, with crude oil, coal, steel, nonferrous metals and other bulk markets performing in turns. The shipping market has also changed its decline, and the profitability of the head enterprises has returned to the peak level around 2008.

At this time, whether the shipbuilding market, which is closely related to the shipping market, can get rid of the cycle constraint has attracted much attention, in particular, the shipbuilding market has been Mired in the bottom for many years, and the recovery of the three major shipbuilding indicators has given market participants expectations.

Zhang Chao, chief analyst of the military industry of AVIC Securities, said in an interview with e company reporters of the Securities Times that at present, the shipbuilding market has increased the number of new signs and the price of new ships. From January to July, the shipping boom rose, and the global new orders signed increased by 180% year-on-year; The new orders are mainly for container ships, and the price of new ships has increased by about 15%.

Zhang Chao judged that the shipping industry is entering a new round of big cycle, with the recovery of maritime trade after the epidemic, superimposing the old ship type and environmental protection rules on the ship type renewal demand, the shipbuilding industry will usher in a steady increase in orders and prices.

At present, China's shipbuilding capacity utilization monitoring index (CCI) is also in a rebound trend, but has not yet reached a high point, the second quarter of this year, CCI 706 points, an increase of 24.3%, an increase of 8.3%. The shipyard personnel told reporters that in the third quarter of this year, the international shipping market will remain active, and the capacity utilization of backbone shipbuilding enterprises will continue to be at a normal level.

For the current positive changes in the shipbuilding market, Han Jun believes that the order tide this year is generally very restrained, especially for container ships. He is based on the fact that in 2007, the proportion of hand-held orders in the container industry was once as high as 60% of the capacity scale, and the current level of corporate profitability is much higher than in 2007, but the proportion of hand-held orders is only 20%. In addition, he also mentioned that the order driver is not mainly for market share, but for the upgrading and optimization of its own fleet.

Another data shows that shippers hold new ship orders for about 20% of the existing capacity, of which super Panamax ships (15,000 +TEU) accounted for about 60%, new Panamax ships (12,000-14999TEU) accounted for about 20%, the waterfall effect of large ships continues to exist. Han Jun believes that this further shows that the new ship orders mainly come from the demand for ship type structure upgrades.

So, at what point do new ship orders come primarily from expanding demand from shipping companies? In this regard, the judgment of the Korean Army is that the shipbuilding capacity in 2023 and 2024 is basically in a saturated state, and if there are many new ship orders after 2023, it means that more is from the expansion of demand.

The reporter noted that in the description of the stage of the civil ship, China Heavy Industry mentioned that the new shipbuilding market appeared "repair growth", meaning that the shipbuilding market is far from reaching a climax. Zhang Chao added to reporters that the development logic of the shipbuilding industry is around the development trend of global trade volume, with reference to the current global economic development situation, the shipbuilding market will not necessarily usher in a similar cycle in 2007-2008.