Analysis of investment sensitivity in China's chemical fiber industry

Carbon fiber: with the implementation of the "double carbon" strategy, further stimulate the market demand for carbon fiber, at the same time, the level of domestic carbon fiber technology and equipment and product quality improvement, promote the realization of domestic substitution in many fields, carbon fiber enterprises continue to invest for many years and finally see profit. It is worth noting that with the improvement of the carbon fiber industry boom, many places in the country began to lay out carbon fiber and the upstream and downstream industry chain, and there have been some low-level repeated construction phenomena, which is not conducive to the improvement of the overall level of the industry. According to public information, in the next few years, leading enterprises in the industry will still accelerate the expansion of production, there are also some new investors outside the industry eager to try, and the carbon fiber industry stage excess risk is rapidly accumulating. Enterprises in the new project, should carry out sufficient scientific demonstration, avoid blind investment and low-level duplication of construction.

Lycel fiber: Lycel fiber as one of the new fiber materials, because of its green environmental protection properties and excellent product performance, in recent years has become a hot investment in the chemical fiber industry, resulting in rapid growth of its production capacity, and the downstream for the emerging Lycel fiber still needs time to accept, so the capacity utilization rate of Lycel fiber in the past two years is seriously insufficient. In 2021, the overall operating rate of the Lyocell fiber industry is less than 50%. In 2022, despite the delay of some new projects affected by benefits, the overall operating rate of the industry is still at a low level of 50-55%. In the long run, Lyocell fiber is promising, but from the current point of view, whether from the fiber technology, application technology level, or market cultivation, Lyocell fiber industry is still in the initial stage of development, in a short period of time, too fast capacity growth will lead to increased industry competition, resulting in insufficient enterprise construction or even long-term production, is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry.

Iv. Suggestions and Initiatives

1. Avoid blind expansion and maintain reasonable growth

Whether it is a large amount of traditional fields, or high-performance, bio-based and other new fiber materials, production capacity growth should not be too fast. It is suggested that enterprise investment projects should focus on upgrading existing production capacity, and new production capacity projects should fully consider resource endowment, market capacity, environmental capacity and industrial base, avoid blind expansion, but also avoid low-level repetitive construction. In particular, high-performance fibers and bio-based fibers, we do not deny their broad development prospects, but the market still needs a long time to cultivate and expand, so there should be a rational investment in rhythm, orderly development, new production capacity should be reasonable schedule, phased implementation, so as not to miss the dividends brought by technological progress.

2. Strengthen technological innovation and expand market demand

The supply-side structural reform of the chemical fiber industry will be further dominated by technological innovation and market drive. The chemical fiber market is a fully competitive market, the competitiveness of enterprises from technology, products, brands, talents and other aspects to improve, simple volume of scale growth can not create rich profits for enterprises, and may make the industry into a passive situation of vicious competition. It is suggested that enterprises take the initiative to promote the upgrading of chemical fiber technology and equipment, increase investment in research and development, enhance independent innovation ability, and lead demand and create demand with high-quality supply.

3. Strengthening research and development in applied technologies

In addition to strengthening their own technical research and product development, chemical fiber enterprises should also strengthen application technology research and development, especially in some small varieties, high-performance fibers and bio-based fibers and other fields, the lack of application development is one of the bottleneck problems that urgently needs to be solved. It is suggested that fiber enterprises should take the initiative, actively cooperate with downstream enterprises of the industrial chain, strengthen research and development of applied technology, and expand market demand.

The year 2023 is the first year for fully implementing the spirit of the Party's 20 National Congress, and it is also a key year for implementing the 14th Five-Year Plan. Chemical fiber industry enterprises must keep in mind that "high-quality development as the theme, to deepen the supply side structural reform as the main line, to scientific and technological innovation as the driving force, to meet the needs of the textile industry and strategic emerging industries as the purpose, overall economic and security of the industrial chain supply chain, accelerate the key core technology and equipment research, promote the high-end intelligent green transformation of the industry, to achieve high-quality development." "