Analysis of the prospect of natural gas power generation under the background of "carbon neutrality"

1. Prospect analysis of natural gas power generation in the context of "carbon neutrality"

In order for China to achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality", the proportion of renewable energy in the energy supply side should not be less than 80%[3]. The high proportion of renewable power system means a huge demand for peak regulation, and natural gas power generation has been widely concerned because of its advantages in peak regulation and frequency regulation.

Cogeneration and peaking are two main forms of natural gas power generation. Compared with gas-electric peaking, natural gas cogeneration has obvious economic advantages, but it loses some flexibility. Yin Jianping et al. [43] compared and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of cogeneration and gas-electric peaking, and believed that gas-electric peaking should be taken as the main development direction of natural gas power generation. The Global Energy Internet Development and Cooperation Organization released the Research Report on China's Carbon Neutrality before 2060 [13], pointing out that the main role of gas and electricity in China's power system is peak regulation, and the total installed capacity of gas and electricity is expected to be 1.85×108 kW in 2030 and 3.3×108 kW in 2050, respectively. The proportion in the power system is 4.9% and 4.4%, respectively.

Shan Tongwen [44], Chen Rui et al. [45] and Zhu Xingshan et al. [46] all believe that natural gas power generation has obvious advantages over coal power in terms of environmental protection and flexibility, and that the integration of natural gas power generation and renewable energy will be the best path for China's energy transformation. However, it is also pointed out that natural gas power generation still faces problems such as unclear policy and positioning, environmental protection and peak load balancing value can not be fully manifested, and core technology is missing. Hong Tao [1] believes that although natural gas power generation faces the challenge of energy storage, it is still the best backup power supply in the power industry. Chen Zongfa [47] believes that under the background of "dual-carbon" goal and "building a new power system with new energy as the main body", gas-fired power generation faces both challenges and opportunities.

Based on the above research, the author believes that under the goal of "carbon neutrality", the development of natural gas power generation, especially the development of natural gas power peaking, needs full attention. By the end of 2020, China's total installed gas power capacity is about 1×108 kW, accounting for about 4.5% of the total installed power generation capacity, far lower than the average level of developed countries. From the perspective of "carbon peak", China's electricity demand will continue to increase rapidly, and it is difficult to rely only on renewable energy generation to meet the growth of China's electricity demand in the next ten years. Replacing high-carbon coal with low-carbon natural gas is the best choice to achieve the peak of the power industry as soon as possible. From the perspective of power security, with the continuous increase of the installed proportion of renewable energy, the moment of inertia of the power system will continue to decrease, and the challenge of safe and stable operation of the power system will become more severe [48], and the demand for peak regulation and frequency modulation will become more urgent. However, from the current technology and basic conditions, chemical energy storage and hydrogen energy are difficult to undertake the heavy task of maintaining power grid security in the short term: the most advantageous large-scale energy storage technology - chemical energy storage, and the operation scale is extremely low. By the end of 2020, the scale of domestic chemical energy storage is less than 3.5GW, while hydrogen energy is still in the initial stage, and the "Road to Hydrogen energy Parity" issued by the China Hydrogen energy and fuel cell Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance pointed out that hydrogen energy is expected to become a competitive low-carbon solution by 2030. It is expected that gas power will be the most effective means to meet the demand of peak and frequency regulation and maintain the security of power grid in the next ten years. In addition, in terms of policy, a number of ministries and commissions issued a special deployment, requiring strict control of coal power projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, deepening the reform of the power system, and promoting natural gas power generation.

2 Related Suggestions

2.1 High awareness of the important role of natural gas in achieving the goal of "carbon neutrality"

Promoting gas instead of coal is not only a weapon to control environmental pollution, but also the only effective choice to achieve "carbon peak" as soon as possible in the short term, but also the most effective means to absorb a high proportion of renewable energy under the current technical conditions. This should be fully recognized, vigorously publicized, and clearly reflected in national or regional energy planning.

2.2 Strengthen cooperation in the upper, middle and lower reaches to jointly promote the healthy development of the natural gas industry

The establishment of the National pipeline network company basically breaks the storage and transportation restrictions of China's natural gas industry, and the goal of "carbon neutrality" provides additional opportunities for the rapid development of the natural gas industry. The next decade will be an opportunity period and window period for the development of China's natural gas industry, and participants in the natural gas industry need to jointly seize the development opportunities: While upstream enterprises continue to increase domestic natural gas exploration and development efforts, they actively "go out" to obtain high-quality overseas resources, and provide high-quality, stable and economic natural gas resources for downstream enterprises. (2) Midstream enterprises should strengthen infrastructure and emergency peaking capacity construction to provide safe and reliable storage and transportation facilities for the development of the natural gas industry. ③ Downstream enterprises to establish a good sense of service, to create high-quality natural gas use experience for users.

2.3 Fully release the natural gas market dividends brought about by the reform of the pipeline network system

We should continue to promote innovation in operating models and fully release the reform dividends brought by the new system. The first is to do a good job in the preparation of the two parts of the price of natural gas infrastructure, can take the pilot first, gradually promote the way to change to the two parts of the price; Second, at present, China does not have the conditions for market-oriented distribution of pipe and capacity, we can consider the incremental pilot first, and then gradually promote; Third, after the establishment of the pipeline network company, more and more upstream enterprises will enter the field of upstream exploration and development and LNG import, which will lead to the diversification of natural gas supply resources at the same time, but also lead to the dispersion of supply guarantee responsibilities, it is recommended to further clarify the division of natural gas supply guarantee responsibilities. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation Price Management Measures (Interim)" and "Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation Price supervision and Examination Measures (interim)" only stipulated the cost supervision and transportation price of cross-provincial pipeline networks, and it is recommended to further clarify the rules for determining the transportation price of provincial natural gas pipeline networks, and appropriately reduce the permitted rate of return. Further reduce the transportation cost of natural gas.

2.4 Continue to promote the reform of the natural gas industry in a coordinated manner

Natural gas market reform is a systematic project that needs overall consideration and cannot be accomplished overnight. At present, there are some problems in China's natural gas market, such as lack of competition in the upstream, obvious shortfalls in the midstream infrastructure, "one national network" has not been completed, and no influential benchmark price has been formed, which affect the strategic opportunities of China's natural gas market under the vision of carbon neutrality. The following suggestions are put forward: First, study and implement effective measures to encourage and guide diversified capital into the upper and midstream links, and promote the rapid development of upstream exploration and development and midstream infrastructure construction. Second, vigorously promote the independent operation of regional and provincial pipe networks or voluntary integration into national pipe network companies according to market-oriented principles, and completely open up the midstream transport link. The third is to speed up the construction of price trading centers and form influential benchmark prices as soon as possible. Fourth, according to the progress of the reform in the upper and middle reaches, the price control of the market is relaxed in an orderly manner, and the gate station price is gradually abolished by region to promote the market price of natural gas.

2.5 Vigorously solve the constraints of natural gas power generation

Natural gas power generation is not only the best choice for China to achieve "carbon peak" as soon as possible, but also an effective means to adjust the peak frequency and maintain the safe operation of the power grid, which needs to be paid full attention to. It is suggested that efforts should be made to clear the obstacles of natural gas power generation from the following aspects: First, compared with coal power generation, natural gas power generation has the advantages of environmental protection, low-carbon and flexible, and the externalities of coal power generation should be internalized through policy means to create a fair development environment for the development of natural gas power generation; The second is to speed up the market-oriented reform of electricity price, establish a peaking trading mechanism, so that the value of natural gas power generation peak and frequency regulation is fully reflected in the price; The third is to break the policy bottleneck of the direct supply of natural gas to the gas power plant, reduce the intermediate link cost, and effectively reduce the raw gas cost of the gas power company; Fourth, increase scientific and technological innovation, strive to realize the localization of natural gas power generation equipment as soon as possible, and reduce the cost of natural gas power generation equipment.