China's oil and gas industry analysis and outlook series of blue books released

"Low carbon Economy Blue Book" pointed out that for a long time China's carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth to keep pace with the trend, at the same time, China's carbon price mechanism to promote low-carbon transition effect. By 2022, China's carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) has a cumulative turnover of 230 million tons, with a cumulative turnover of 10.475 billion yuan. From the time dimension, the carbon price of each pilot region in 2022 has increased compared with that of 2021. From a regional perspective, Beijing's carbon price is the highest in China, followed by Guangdong, and Fujian's carbon price is the lowest. The second compliance cycle of the national carbon market in 2022 has been successfully concluded, and the market has entered the third compliance cycle in 2023. With the continuous promotion of green and low-carbon development, carbon prices may continue to rise.

According to the Blue Book of Low Carbon Economy, China has built the world's largest clean power generation system, and the installed capacity of wind, light, water and biomass power generation ranks first in the world. At the same time, China's energy efficiency has been greatly improved. In 2022, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit of calcium carbide in key energy-consuming industrial enterprises will be reduced by 1.6%, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit of synthetic ammonia by 0.8%, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel by 1.7%, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit of electrolytic aluminum by 0.4%, and the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of thermal power generation will be reduced by 0.2%.

With the completion and production of new refining and olefin units, the scale concentration of China's petrochemical industry, the degree of cluster of petrochemical bases, the overall technical level of the industry and the core competitiveness have achieved a new leap. At present, China's 10 million tons and above refineries have increased to 32, and the aggregation effect of refining and chemical integration has become increasingly apparent. The Blue Book of Refined Oil Products and New Energy shows that in 2022, the growth of China's refining capacity will slow down, and the total refining capacity will rise to 924 million tons/year, ranking the world's largest refining country. Ethylene production capacity increased rapidly for the fourth consecutive year, and the total production capacity reached 49.53 million tons/year, surpassing the United States and rising to the first place in the world. In 2022, affected by the sharp rise in international oil prices and the sharp decline in demand for major oil products, a number of operating indicators of China's refining industry declined and entered the trough of the business cycle. Among them, domestic crude oil processing fell 5% to 680 million tons, the first decline since the 21st century; The average operating rate of refineries was 73.8%, down 4.8 percentage points from 2021, ending the positive growth trend since 2015; The profit of refining enterprises per ton of oil in the whole industry was about 140 yuan, a sharp decline of 63% from 2021. According to the Blue Book of Refined Oil and New Energy, in 2022, affected by multiple factors, domestic oil consumption declined year-on-year, crude oil and oil dependence fell, and refined oil consumption showed a gradual recovery trend throughout the year. In the future, the domestic oil refining industry will show the characteristics of large-scale, integration, base, park, digital and green.

The "Blue Book of Refined Oil and New Energy" takes the multi-equilibrium model as the framework, starts from the dual perspectives of geography and market, micro and macro, focuses on the development status and development direction of China's oil terminal and new energy industry, and tracks and interprets the fluctuations and the logic behind them. The blue book is jointly compiled by the China Petroleum Enterprises Association and the School of Economics and Management of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), and published annually to the whole society.

According to the Blue Book of Refined Oil Products and New Energy, in 2022, China's refined oil consumption was 345 million tons, an increase of 0.9%, of which gasoline was down 4.6%, diesel was up 11.8%, and aviation kerosene was down 32.4%. Driven by the rise in global commodities, China's gasoline and diesel prices in 2022 hit a new high since 2015, and the annual volatility of gasoline and diesel prices was 37.8% and 37.4%. It is expected that the demand for refined oil products in China will recover and rise in 2023, increasing by 9.1% year-on-year. With the continuous release of new production capacity, it is expected that crude oil processing volume and refined oil production will rebound, and the market supply is relatively adequate.

In terms of new energy, in 2022, China's new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation exceeded 120 million kilowatts, reaching 125 million kilowatts, exceeding 100 million kilowatts for three consecutive years, hitting a new record high; The installed capacity of renewable energy exceeded 1.2 billion kilowatts, reaching 1.213 billion kilowatts, accounting for 47.3% of the country's total installed power generation capacity, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over 2021. China has become an active participant and important contributor to the global response to climate change. In 2022, China's renewable energy generation is equivalent to reducing domestic carbon dioxide emissions by about 2.26 billion tons, and the export of wind power photovoltaic products will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 573 million tons for other countries, with a total reduction of 2.83 billion tons. It accounted for about 41% of the global renewable energy converted carbon reduction during the same period. It is expected that in 2023, China's new energy industry will maintain a good development trend, and production and sales will achieve stable growth. The oil and gas industry will accelerate the process of electrification, through the production of energy "electricity instead of oil" and "electricity instead of gas", it can replace a certain scale of oil and gas products, improve the industry's self-produced oil and gas commodity rate, and increase external supply capacity. According to the current level of domestic oil and gas production, if the electrification rate of terminal energy use is increased to 30%, it is equivalent to adding a large oil field with an annual output of 11 million tons of oil equivalent.