The rise of independence is unstoppable, and intelligence will become an important winner and loser

The share of independent brands is likely to increase to more than 60% by 2025

From the perspective of market share, the share of independent brands has fluctuated between 30% and 45%, and has basically stabilized at about 40% in the last three years. In 2020, the market share of independent brands in the Chinese market will be 38.4%, the market share of German brands will be 23.8%, the market share of Japanese brands will be 23.4%, the market share of American brands will be 9.4%, the market share of Korean brands will be 3.5%, and the market share of French brands will be 0.3%. From the perspective of long-term data, the share growth of independent brands often occurs in the upward cycle of automobile sales growth, while the share decline of independent brands generally occurs in the downward cycle of automobiles. This and the overall price of the independent brand is low, and the audience is mainly related to the low and middle income people: for the low and middle income people, the "electability" of automobile consumption is stronger, so the share of the independent brand is more than usual reflected in the amplifier of the prosperity of the automobile industry. However, in the next five years, independent brands may open the trend of unilateral increase in share.

In the field of intelligent electric vehicles, Chinese companies with the leading product layout are already achieving corner overtaking at the share end. Taking the data of June this year as an example, the independent brand accounted for 60.8% in the pure electricity market and 60.3% in the PHEV market, but the current share in the HEV market is 9.7%.

In 2025, the total share of independent brands in the passenger car market is expected to reach 60%. We have calculated the pattern according to the model planning of various car companies, and it is expected that in the sales volume of 30 million vehicles in 2025, the market share of independent brands is expected to increase to 60%, of which Weilai Ideal Xiaopeng is expected to account for 6.1% of the share, and other independent brands are expected to account for 54.9%. Overseas brands will have a market share decline, but Tesla's share increased to 4.6%. Combined with our forecast of 9 million new energy vehicles in 2025, Tesla and the three new forces of NIO, Ideo and Xiaopeng are expected to occupy 36% of the new energy passenger car market share.

The meaning of consumption upgrading is about to change, and intelligence will become synonymous with high-end

After experiencing a relatively long period of hesitation from 2011 to 2019, the average price of passenger vehicles has entered a period of fluctuation and rise since the second half of 2019. In 2021, the price of passenger cars in China stabilized at more than 150,000 yuan (based on MSRP), with the highest monthly average price reaching 163,000 yuan. We expect that due to the changes in the core competitiveness of automobile enterprises and the driving force of the development of the industry, the unit price of passenger cars will benefit from the trend of consumption upgrading and automobile intelligence and electrification in the future, and the average price of passenger cars will enter the stage of continuous rise in the next 5-10 years.

Since 2016, although the total volume of the automotive industry continues to be under pressure, luxury brands rely on their own strong product cycle and the ability to explore products to maintain hot sales and increasing penetration, but also indirectly help to improve the average level of passenger car prices. We expect that in 2025 as a whole, the proportion of high-priced cars of 300,000 yuan and above will increase, which is expected to increase from the current 9.9% to 14.1% in 2025, and the share of low-priced cars of 80,000 yuan and below will be significantly reduced to less than 5%. While the waist market remains largely unchanged, the price belt segment will have the opportunity to shift upward as a whole.

"Science and technology configuration" and "intelligent driving" have become synonymous with "high-end" in the era of intelligent electric vehicles. We summarize the selling points of the high-end C-class cars sold in the market in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020, and we can see that the definition of high-end demand is constantly shifting. The 2005 model focused on space, interior and exterior luxury and ride comfort, while the luxury car of the year, the benchmark Audi A6 technology configuration is limited to a set of difficult to use MMI multi-function control system. Since 2010, consumers' demand for exterior interior has further increased, and the black technology of powertrain has also begun to be applied on a large scale (electronic throttle, direct injection in cylinder, dual vortex tube and other technologies), while the car has begun to load a variety of optional driving modes, and the sense of science and technology has also improved; 2015 BBA in luxury comfort and power train these two items have been difficult to open the gap, in addition to competing in the appearance of the primary function of auxiliary driving, the cabin sense of science and technology and interactive interface has become the main points of BBA differentiation competition. The high-end models launched in 2020, such as Xiaopeng P7, NIO EC6, and Ideal ONE, have transferred the core definition of "high-end demand" from the past interior appearance, powertrain, chassis adjustment, etc., to "intelligent driving", "intelligent network connection", "intelligent cockpit", "OTA upgrade" and other fields that Chinese car companies are good at.