The dilemma of China's natural gas price mechanism

Guo Jiaofeng believes that the current marketization has entered the third step, that is, the establishment of a benchmark price system, the first to establish LNG futures market, supporting the spot market, so as to form a national market price and regional market, and finally the formation of a benchmark price system that can reflect the relationship between China's natural gas supply and demand.

At the 10th China International Petroleum Trade Conference held on November 8, Wang Fenghai, general manager of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, introduced that in the face of the increasingly strong demand for risk management in the natural gas industry, the exchange continued to promote the research and development of natural gas futures. In August this year, LNG futures officially received the approval of the CSRC project and are speeding up the listing work.

Industry insiders interviewed by interface news said that through the futures market, enterprises can hedge and hedge risks; Help to form more transparent market prices.

However, some industry experts believe that although the domestic natural gas industry chain has formed an "X+1+X" pattern, the actual effect is not ideal.

In terms of resource suppliers, about 80% of natural gas resources are still supplied by "three barrels of oil", and private and foreign enterprises have a weak sense of participation; Due to the lack of effective incentives and supervision, the national pipe network group, which is expected to have high expectations, is not ideal in the fair and open service. Downstream urban fuel enterprises have a higher degree of marketization and fierce competition, but their right to speak in the whole production chain is weak.

The senior energy expert, who declined to be named, said that although the upper, middle and lower reaches are not satisfactory, market reforms cannot be stopped. The most realistic way is that the natural gas market can learn from the reform experience of the domestic refined oil market.

Until 1998, the country enjoyed low oil prices. In 1998, the foreign dependence of domestic crude oil was about 18%.

With the continuous increase of crude oil dependence on foreign countries, the price of refined oil products has initially begun to meet the international standards, and the impact on the domestic refined oil market is also increasing, and the price mechanism of refined oil products has gradually improved.

Until 2013, the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism was basically finalized, the refined oil pricing and price adjustment cycle was shortened from the current 22 working days to 10 working days, the upper and lower 4% range limit was canceled, and the "ceiling price" and "floor price" were set. The problem of the price mechanism of refined oil products, which has been puzzling for many years, has been basically solved.

"Now the domestic natural gas dependence has exceeded 40%, and the domestic gate station price has not been in line with international standards, which is not conducive to the development of the domestic natural gas industry." The energy experts said.

The person believes that the international natural gas market has changed from the regional development in the past to the current global market, and the three major natural gas markets are more connected and interactive. This provides conditions for domestic natural gas to connect with the international market.

However, there are also industry insiders close to the market told the interface news that the natural gas price mechanism should reasonably reflect China's own supply and demand situation, and establish a price signal reflecting the domestic supply and demand relationship, rather than simply "outside the set".

"If, in line with international standards, domestic prices are determined by a weighted average of the world's three major natural gas markets, this cannot reflect the real supply and demand of domestic resources." The industry insiders said that China should establish its own natural gas futures market as soon as possible, and cooperate with the spot market to form an influential natural gas benchmark price system, so as to influence the international gas price.