In the great era of green electricity infrastructure, nuclear power will take off again

1 The present and future of nuclear power

1.1 The fundamentals of nuclear power are improving

The number of new nuclear power projects approved in 2022 exceeded expectations, and the position of nuclear power as the main force of energy supply was stable. The executive meetings of The State Council held on April 20 and September 13, 2022 pointed out that nuclear power should be developed in an orderly manner under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring absolute safety. Five new nuclear power plant projects that have been comprehensively evaluated and reviewed and have been included in the state plan, and a total of 10 units were approved. We believe that the nuclear power inflection point signal has appeared, and multiple dimensions have established the basis for the development of advantages.

Tianshi: The policy is oriented well, and the general direction of actively developing nuclear power is established. In the 2021 government Work report, it is clearly proposed to "actively and orderly develop nuclear power under the premise of ensuring safety", which is the first time since 2017 that the government work report uses "positive" to mention nuclear power. After that, a series of policy documents clarified the important position of nuclear power in "carbon neutrality", especially in the two important documents of "Action Plan for carbon Peak before 2030" and "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System", which once again emphasized the "positive and safe and orderly development of nuclear power".

Geographical location: China has a vast territory, there is a mismatch between power generation and power consumption, nuclear power as a base load energy at the same time with green electricity attributes, open the long-term development of nuclear power space. In the process of accelerating the realization of the dual carbon goal, there are problems such as abandoning wind and light, long-distance transmission, and impact on the power grid caused by the increase in the proportion of new energy, and the power shortage caused by the thermal power decline, which requires long-term sustained investment in UHV, energy storage, distribution network and other fields to solve these problems. Because nuclear power is the only power generation method with the stability of traditional energy and the cleanliness of new energy, it has become the best choice to solve the current energy problems. The power shortage occurred in the summer and autumn of 2021 and 2022 for two consecutive years, which proves that energy supply and clean are equally important, and nuclear power has become an ideal alternative energy because it has the attributes of green electricity and stability at the same time, and has received strong support from the policy side.

Renhe: At present, the fund holdings of companies in the nuclear power sector are still at the bottom, and the company's valuation is also at a historical low. We selected some companies in the nuclear power sector to observe the proportion of fund holdings, and found that after the collective increase after 2019, it has shown a downward trend since 2021, and is currently at a historical low. From the perspective of the valuation of companies in the nuclear power sector, it has been in a slow decline in recent years and is currently at a historical low. We believe that with the support of the above "favorable conditions, geographical conditions and people" factors, the nuclear power plate has a large upward space.

1.2 Technology leapfrogs to the fourth generation to significantly improve security

After more than half a century of development since the commissioning of Shippingport, the world's first commercial nuclear power plant, in 1957, The 422 nuclear power units in operation (statistics by the end of 2022 of the CNNC Strategic Planning Research Institute) include boiling water reactor (BWR), pressurized water reactor (PWR), heavy water reactor (PHWR), water-cooled graphite reactor (LWGR), fast reactor (BWR), high temperature gas cooled reactor (GCR) and other reactors. Nuclear power technology is characterized by diversification and continuous improvement of safety. As a late entrant in the field of nuclear power, China has fully mastered the third and fourth generation nuclear power technology through introduction, absorption and independent research and development, and has reached the world's leading level of nuclear power.

Before 2000, the global mainstream was dominated by second-generation nuclear power technology, with the highest proportion of pressurized water reactors. During this period, after 30 years of nuclear power design and construction work, China has completed the whole process of "introduction - digestion - absorption - re-innovation", and has developed second-generation nuclear power technology with independent intellectual property rights. The Qinshan Phase I CNP300 is the first nuclear power unit designed, built and operated by China. On this basis, CNPC launched CNP650 and applied it in Qinshan Phase II, Hainan Changjiang, Pakistan Qasima and other projects. Based on the French Famatong M310 unit, CGN launched the CPR1000 and applied to Lingao, Hongyanhe, Ningde, Yangjiang, Fangchenggang and other projects, while CNN launched the second-generation improved M310+ and applied to Fuqing, Fangjiashan, Tianwan and other projects. Through mass construction, the second-generation nuclear power project has created a complete, mature and efficient nuclear power supply chain, laying the foundation for the development of the nuclear industry. And by continuously reducing costs and optimizing construction period, the competitiveness of nuclear power is continuously improved.