Solving the "multivariate equation" of renewable energy replacement



Wind, solar, hydro, biomass... In recent years, renewable energy has received more and more attention because of its green, low-carbon, renewable and other characteristics.

More than 1 billion kilowatts, equivalent to the installed capacity of more than 40 Three Gorges power stations - data released by the National Energy Administration shows that by the end of October 2021, China's cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has doubled from the end of 2015, accounting for 43.5% of the country's total installed power generation capacity. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power, solar power and biomass power generation ranks first in the world. Renewable energy sources emit neither pollutants nor greenhouse gases. The installed scale of these "zero carbon" energy sources has steadily expanded, providing strong support for the green and low-carbon energy transformation and the realization of the goal of carbon peak carbon neutrality.

 Data show that in 2020, China's renewable energy development and utilization scale reached 680 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to nearly 1 billion tons of alternative coal, reducing carbon dioxide emissions of about 1.79 billion tons. At the same time, the clean utilization of biomass energy such as urban and rural organic waste, the combination of power generation and planting and breeding, such as photovoltaic sand control models, also promote the development and utilization of renewable energy and ecological governance, agricultural income. At present, China's wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment manufacturing has formed the world's most complete industrial chain, and the average cost per kilowatt of onshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects has fallen by about 30% and 75% respectively in the past 10 years.

The large-scale wind power photovoltaic base project started in an orderly manner, the whole county roof distributed photovoltaic development pilot was promoted, and the fan was distributed to the sea and the plain area... Construction of a number of renewable energy projects is in full swing. Not long ago, the "Carbon peak Action Plan before 2030" issued by The State Council proposed: "vigorously implement renewable energy replacement" and "by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts." Policy enablement and implementation drive the Green progress bar that is accelerating energy supply. It should also be noted that vigorously implementing the replacement of renewable energy is not just a simple increase in installed capacity, which is behind a complex "multiple equation", which needs to comprehensively solve a variety of factors such as clean and low-carbon, safe and reliable, and economic and reasonable, and promote the smooth transition of low-carbon energy transition.

From the point of view of safety and reliability, electric energy cannot be stored on a large scale, and production and consumption need to be balanced in real time. And wind power, photovoltaic often "rely on the day to eat", with "extremely hot no wind", "late peak no light" and other volatility, intermittent shortcomings, the future large-scale, high proportion of access, will bring no small challenge to the stability of the power system and energy security. Therefore, the construction of a more flexible and more resilient new power system has become an urgent need. Among them, it involves strengthening the flexibility transformation of thermal power units on the power generation side, accelerating the construction of pumped storage power stations and the research and development and application of new energy storage technologies, and promoting the transformation and intelligent upgrading of the distribution network on the power grid side, and strengthening the demand-side response on the power side. Not only that, China's current energy resource endowment is still dominated by coal, based on the actual national conditions, how to adhere to safe carbon reduction in the future, give full play to the role of fossil energy in the process of security guarantee, and handle the relationship between development and emission reduction, short and medium term, also need to be balanced.

From an economic and reasonable point of view, with the large-scale use of photovoltaic and wind power, the technical cost will decrease significantly, and the increase in cost mainly lies in the balance cost and security cost of the power system. In order to further promote the replacement of renewable energy, on the one hand, costs can be reduced as much as possible and the economy of the construction of new power systems can be improved by accelerating the development and large-scale application of advanced and applicable technologies. On the other hand, it is also necessary to give full play to the role of the market mechanism, improve the electricity price mechanism, so that the auxiliary services such as coal and gas power can obtain reasonable benefits, so as to reflect the value of calming new energy fluctuations, and mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises to implement flexible transformation.

Solving the "multivariate equation" of renewable energy substitution is difficult to achieve overnight and requires hard work. We will be able to find safe, reliable, clean, low-carbon, and economically reasonable solutions under the premise of ensuring energy security to help achieve the goal of peak carbon neutrality on schedule.