China's new energy and renewable energy development: opportunities, constraints

The cost is obviously high. The high cost and high price of new energy is an important obstacle to its promotion and application. Due to the complex technology and small scale, the cost of new energy infrastructure and unit investment is generally higher than that of conventional energy, resulting in the unit cost of new energy products is also difficult to decrease. At present, the product cost is lower than conventional energy or comparable only solar thermal utilization, geothermal direct utilization, biogas, all kinds of new energy power generation costs are higher than coal-fired power generation and hydropower. Assuming that the cost of coal-fired power generation is 1, the cost of nuclear power generation is slightly higher than that of coal power, the cost of biomass power generation is 1.5, the cost of wind power is 1.7, and the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation is 11-18. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel also cost more than gasoline and diesel. High cost will inhibit the expansion of new energy market capacity; On the contrary, the small market will cause obstacles to the cost reduction of new energy, forming a vicious circle. The market itself cannot break this vicious circle, it must rely on the government's preferential policies and incentives.

Pricing model affects the development of new energy. Although the "Electricity price Reform Plan" in 2003 has designed a scientific electricity price pricing model, the current income of grid enterprises is still all from the "price difference" between the power generation link and the terminal sales link. Wind power, photovoltaic power generation costs are high, the Internet price is high, but according to the unified terminal price sales, resulting in small profit margins of grid enterprises, do not want to accept new energy power. This restricts the development of new energy to a certain extent.

Third, the development of new energy and renewable energy should handle several relations

In order to successfully achieve the goals of the 12th Five-Year Plan and international commitments on energy conservation and emission reduction, the following relations should be properly handled in the future development of new and renewable energy sources:

The relationship between clean utilization of traditional energy and development of renewable energy. In Europe and the United States, new energy has developed rapidly in recent years, because the total energy consumption has no longer grown, or the growth is very small, and the new energy is mainly to supplement and gradually replace the increased part of fossil energy. China's resource endowment and development stage determine that China's coal-based energy structure and thermal power pattern will be difficult to change for a long time, and new energy can only be used as a supplement to traditional energy in a long period of time. At present, the world's energy consumption is still in the transition stage from the traditional coal era to the oil and gas era, and the clean new energy era has not yet arrived, and China is no exception. Therefore, at this stage, China should correctly evaluate the market development potential and application prospects of new energy, and actively explore the development and utilization of new energy sources at the same time, seek truth from facts, scientific planning, further increase the clean transformation of traditional energy, and increase the development of oil and gas resources, especially unconventional oil and gas resources. We will establish a pattern of energy consumption with traditional energy as the mainstay and new energy as the supplement.

The relationship between economy and advanced nature. The development potential of new energy is large, the environmental impact is small, most can be sustainable use, is an important direction to develop future energy, but also in line with human energy use clean, quality, high efficiency requirements, its advanced nature is self-evident. However, the current new energy is still in the preliminary development stage, the technical level is not high, the development cost is high, and the lack of economy is also an indisputable fact. From the perspective of sustainable development, in the case that the new energy economy is not mature, we should adhere to the basic principle of "technically feasible and economically reasonable", do what we can, develop moderately, and not rush forward, regardless of the cost, so as to avoid losses caused by "haste without speed". At this stage, sufficient policy support can be given to the research and experiment of new energy in terms of policy, and strive to make new energy compete with traditional coal-fired power generation in terms of technology and economy.

The relationship between small-scale distributed and large-scale centralized. New energy has the characteristics of low energy density, randomness and intermittence, and cannot be commercially stored, according to technical and economic constraints, it is appropriate to adopt a decentralized and distributed development method, and use it locally and nearby." The transmission mode of "large-scale, high-centralization, long-distance and high-voltage transmission" not only requires a lot of investment, but also affects the operation security of the power grid. Therefore, the new energy and renewable energy should be adapted to local conditions, and the model of centralized development and decentralized development should be adopted. According to the distribution of renewable energy resources and electricity market, the development and construction of renewable energy in resource-rich areas will be intensified, and the advantages of centralized, contiguous and large-scale development of renewable energy areas will be built. At the same time, give full play to the advantages of wide distribution of renewable energy resources and diverse forms of products, encourage all regions to develop and utilize various types of renewable energy locally, vigorously promote the application of distributed renewable energy, and form a centralized development and decentralized development and distributed utilization of renewable energy development model.