Carbon emission reduction path of coal chemical industry

b. Improved fertilizer efficiency: Without affecting yields, we project that annual nitrogen fertilizer use per hectare in China has the potential to decline by 30% by 2050 (see Figure V). The per capita arable area of Chinese farms is much lower than that of Western countries, and small farmers lack the knowledge of scientific use of chemical fertilizers, leading to the problem of excessive and blind use of chemical fertilizers in China. The average amount of nitrogen fertilizer used in China's crop hectares is 306 kilograms, much higher than the world average and more than twice that of the United States. The problem has improved in recent years, and during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the government actively controlled fertilizer use through farmer education and local supervision. In the future, with the integration of land ownership, large farms are expected to gradually replace individual farmers as the mainstream farming model. Large farmers use far less nitrogen fertilizer per hectare than small farmers; At the same time, large farmers are also more willing to adopt optimized farming techniques, such as the use of organic fertilizers, slow-release fertilizers and other new fertilizers, to further improve the efficiency of fertilizer use.

2. Existing carbon reduction technologies: Emerging gasifier and fuel electrification technologies are mature and, if widely applied in the industry, can effectively reduce carbon emissions by more than 50%, but will incur additional capital expenditures and operating costs. Due to the low overall profit level of the coal chemical industry, external thrust is needed to internalize the external cost of carbon emissions in order to improve the application space of these two technologies in the industry.

a. Emerging gasifiers: China's existing gasifiers are still dominated by old fixed beds, and their single-furnace production capacity is low and pollution treatment is difficult, which has been generally eliminated by modern coal chemical industry abroad. With the increase of carbon emission requirements, coal chemical enterprises need to actively replace production capacity, eliminate and upgrade the old fixed bed gasification technology with high coal consumption, and use new high-efficiency pulverized coal gasification and other technologies. It is estimated that by 2030, by upgrading gas equipment, the industry has the potential to reduce coal consumption per unit by 30%, thereby reducing carbon emissions by about 15%.b. Fuel electrification: Coal-fired electrification, which can eliminate carbon emissions from coal (50% of the total), is a mature technology, but it significantly increases operating costs in high-temperature processes, and is estimated to cost more than $100 to reduce 1 ton of CO2.

3. Emerging carbon emission reduction technologies: CCUS and electrolytic hydrogen, two emerging technologies, are the starting points to solve the last mile of carbon emission reduction in the synthetic ammonia industry. Both of these technologies can reduce carbon emissions in the production process of synthetic ammonia by more than 80%, but they are still in the stage of technological exploration.

A. Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) : CCUS has a good coupling with the development of coal chemical industry, because the carbon dioxide concentration is high, the capture cost is much lower than other industries. According to our estimates, the cost of CO2 capture per ton in the synthetic ammonia industry is about 80 yuan, while in other industries (e.g., cement, electricity) it is more than 200 yuan. This technology can be preferentially used in North China, Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places close to oil fields to reduce carbon emission costs through carbon dioxide flooding. In the next 30 years, if the development of CCUS is improved, the construction of transport pipelines and storage facilities, and the formation of industrial synergies with other high-carbon industries, it is expected to further expand the application of the industry.

b. electrolytic hydrogen: The use of electrolytic hydrogen to produce synthetic ammonia instead of coal to produce hydrogen, this technology has been mature, but due to the current high cost, has not been applied in the synthetic ammonia industry. According to our calculation, assuming that the industrial electricity price is 6 yuan per degree, the cost of electrolytic hydrogen to synthetic ammonia is more than 3 times that of coal to hydrogen. With the further improvement of the efficiency of electrolytic hydrogen conversion and the reduction of the price of new energy, in some areas with surplus renewable energy, the future cost of electrolytic hydrogen can be lower than that of coal to hydrogen. If the cost advantage is obvious, the ammonia industrial plant cluster may gradually transfer to this area, and the carbon dioxide required for downstream urea production can be obtained from the carbon dioxide captured by the surrounding high-carbon enterprises.Inspiration to coal chemical enterprises

Turn crisis into opportunity, lock downstream demand in advance, and look for future business opportunities: Evaluate the demand changes of major downstream customers in a low-carbon environment, and find low-carbon growth points. In the face of new growth opportunities, analyze potential revenue to identify key development directions and develop entry plans. For example, the agricultural demand of the synthetic ammonia industry will decline significantly, and the impact of carbon emission reduction on future earnings can be reduced by entering the downstream fertilizer industry or alcohol and ammonia co-production.