Operation analysis of China's chemical fiber industry in 2021 and outlook in 2022

In 2021, the global economy has gradually recovered, and China's economy has also achieved sustained recovery and development, and its economic growth rate is among the highest in the world. Domestic and foreign demand for Chinese textiles and clothing has rebounded, and the advantages of the complete industrial system have been fully leveraged. This year, the development of China's chemical fiber industry and "double cycle", consumption upgrading, energy consumption "double control", industrial safety, etc., accompanied by the industry operation showed gratifying characteristics: thanks to the in-depth promotion of supply-side structural reform, the industry supply and demand pattern improved; With the development of refining and chemical integration, the industrial chain is more perfect, and the profit distribution of the industrial chain is more balanced; The competitiveness and anti-risk ability of integrated leading enterprises have been significantly enhanced; Industry product development continues to strengthen, product differentiation and high quality has been able to meet the domestic and international market demand...

In 2021, China's chemical fiber industry has entered the recovery stage of the post-epidemic era, and the overall situation shows that prices have risen, profits have increased, and inventories have stabilized, achieving a good start of the "14th Five-Year Plan". However, it is worth noting that with the gradual weakening of the low base effect in 2020, the growth momentum of the industry has gradually slowed down, and the growth rate of the main economic operation indicators has shown a clear "high before low" trend.

First, the basic operation of the chemical fiber industry in 2021

(1) Production situation

In 2021, the output of chemical fiber was 65.24 million tons, an increase of 8.29% (Table 1). Among them, in addition to the viscose filament and acrylic fiber production decreased by 2.42% and 11.87%, respectively, the output of other main products achieved positive growth, especially the polyester filament increased by 10.77% and spandex increased by 10.08%.

(2) Import and export information

In 2021, international trade in the chemical fiber industry has basically returned to normal, and the number of imports and exports of chemical fiber products has shown a growth trend. Chemical fiber imports were 834,500 tons, up 9.92% year-on-year, but still down 9.10% compared with 2019. Except for polyester staple fiber imports decreased by 12.68% year-on-year, imports of other major products increased year-on-year (Table 2). The export volume of chemical fiber was 5.1991 million tons, an increase of 11.55% year-on-year, which has returned to the level of 2019 before the epidemic. Among them, except for the export volume of viscose staple fiber and acrylic fiber decreased by 13.16% and 26.98%, respectively, the export volume of other major products achieved positive growth.

(3) Market conditions

In 2021, under the logic of cost support and better demand, the overall price focus of the chemical fiber market will return to the pre-epidemic level (Figure 1 to Figure 5). Polyester, although the market price is fluctuating upward trend, but the increase is less than the raw material, at the end of December compared with the beginning of the year, the raw material PTA increase of 34%, polyester filament (POY) and polyester staple fiber increase of 21% and 17% respectively; In terms of nylon, at the end of December, compared with the beginning of the year, raw material CPL increased by 22%, and nylon (POY) increased by 18%; In terms of viscose staple fiber, the market price reached a peak in early March, and then fell significantly, to the end of September to about 11800 yuan/ton, basically falling to the level at the beginning of the year, although the fourth quarter rose slightly, but soon fell, to the end of December the price basically maintained at 12000 yuan/ton level; In terms of spandex, the market price increase is the most obvious, 40D products from the beginning of the year 39,000 yuan/ton rose rapidly to 65,000 yuan/ton in early March, and then rose to 80,000 yuan/ton in early August, after a slight decline, but the overall still maintained at about 75,000 yuan/ton.

There are two main reasons for the apparent rise in spandex. From the cost side, PTMEG is the most important raw material of spandex, accounting for about 80% of the raw material consumption of spandex. Another application area of its raw material BDO, PBAT (a degradable material), has seen a sharp increase in demand under the favorable policy of "plastic limit order", resulting in a sharp rise in the price of BDO, which in turn has pushed up the price of PTMEG and spandex. From the demand side, with the technological progress and product development of the spandex industry, spandex is not only an elastic material, it can also bring changes in fabric style, application scenarios and consumption have increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for home wear, sportswear, elastic fabrics, and medical spandex has increased, and the proportion of spandex content in some fabrics has increased, and spandex has become a main raw material from "monosodium glutamate" in textile products. For example, the amount of spandex added in some yoga clothing sportswear fabrics has increased from 10% to 20%, and some have increased to 15% to 25%, and even some sports underwear fabrics have spandex content of more than 50%, surpassing nylon as the main material; The demand for spandex used in masks and protective clothing during the epidemic has also contributed greatly.

(4) Operation quality and efficiency

In 2021, the economic benefits of the chemical fiber industry increased significantly. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the operating income of the chemical fiber industry entered the trillion yuan level for the first time, reaching 1,026.283 billion yuan, an increase of 27.83% year-on-year; The total profit reached 62.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.19%, and the chemical fiber industry contributed nearly 25% of the profits of the textile industry; The loss of the industry was 17.3%, narrowing by 11.42 percentage points compared with 2020, and the loss of loss-making enterprises was reduced by 8.84% year-on-year (Table 3).

The total profit growth rate of the chemical fiber industry ranked first in the whole textile industry chain, and the average growth rate in two years reached 45.5%, which was significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level. By industry, polyester and spandex industries contributed 40% and 22% of the total profit of chemical fiber, respectively. In addition, after more than ten years of accumulation in the carbon fiber industry, the technical level has been improved, and the production and sales of domestic carbon fiber have exceeded 10,000 tons in 2021, and the whole industry has achieved profit.

In 2021, the operation of the chemical fiber industry will be gradually repaired, and the operation quality indicators will be significantly improved compared with 2020 (Table 4). The profit margin of operating income was 6.13%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, the second highest since the economic crisis in 2008 (Figure 6); The growth rate of operating income increased by 38.24 percentage points year on year. Operating capacity improved compared with the same period in 2020. In addition to the turnover of finished products, which decreased slightly year-on-year, the turnover of accounts receivable, current assets and total assets all increased year-on-year; The proportion of three expenses decreased year-on-year, of which management expenses decreased by 0.31 percentage points year-on-year.

(5) Fixed assets investment

Improved performance of enterprises has led to a gradual recovery of investment confidence. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in fixed assets of the chemical fiber industry in 2021 increased by 31.8% year-on-year (Figure 7). Industrial enterprises have actively carried out investment activities focusing on upgrading technology and equipment, extending industrial chains and adjusting regional layout. The average growth rate of fixed asset investment in the past two years has been 3.1%, and the investment scale has exceeded the pre-epidemic level.

Ii. Operation outlook of chemical fiber industry in 2022

In 2022, the global economic growth is expected to slow down, the international political and economic pattern is accelerating, the growth of external demand may slow down, the recovery of domestic consumption is still facing many difficulties, and the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, but the fundamentals of China's economy are strong and long-term good will not change.

In the first quarter, the operation of the chemical fiber industry has encountered difficulties. Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the local logistics of the chemical fiber industry cluster is blocked, the downstream demand is depressed, the international oil price continues to rise, the cost of chemical fiber is high, and it is difficult to smoothly transfer to the downstream, the operating rate of the chemical fiber industry has declined, and the economic benefits have been greatly reduced. Looking forward to the whole year, the operating pressure and risk of the chemical fiber industry will increase. From the supply side, with the improvement of industrial integration, in order to digest the growth of refining and chemical production capacity, downstream supporting projects continue to expand significantly, so raw materials and chemical fiber are still in the capacity expansion period; From the perspective of the terminal market, China's textile and apparel market is expected to decrease, domestic sales as a whole may maintain low speed and steady growth, and external demand will gradually fall under the influence of factors such as "weak demand, high base, and order outflow". Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of the chemical fiber industry is expected to weaken in 2022, while the energy consumption "double control" may exist for a long time, and the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to be basically maintained or slightly lower. The wide fluctuation of crude oil and the uncertainty of the trend will increase the risk of the chemical fiber market. In addition, the high base in 2021 has a restraining effect on the growth rate of various indicators in the chemical fiber industry in 2022.

2022 is an important year for the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan", along with the adjustment of the policy and the transformation of the economic structure, the contribution of scientific and technological innovation to the economy will gradually increase, and the "specialty and special new" will also develop rapidly. Chemical fiber enterprises should grasp this development opportunity, continue to strengthen independent innovation, enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. At the same time, chemical fiber enterprises should also adhere to the road of green sustainable development, vigorously promote the promotion and application of energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies, actively promote clean production transformation, extensively carry out the construction of green factories, green products, and green supply chain, strengthen the comprehensive utilization of waste resources, and accelerate the mutual promotion and deep integration of low-carbon transformation and industrial development.