Operation analysis of China's chemical fiber industry in 2021 and outlook in 2022

In 2021, the global economy has gradually recovered, and China's economy has also achieved sustained recovery and development, and its economic growth rate is among the highest in the world. Domestic and foreign demand for Chinese textiles and clothing has rebounded, and the advantages of the complete industrial system have been fully leveraged. This year, the development of China's chemical fiber industry and "double cycle", consumption upgrading, energy consumption "double control", industrial safety, etc., accompanied by the industry operation showed gratifying characteristics: thanks to the in-depth promotion of supply-side structural reform, the industry supply and demand pattern improved; With the development of refining and chemical integration, the industrial chain is more perfect, and the profit distribution of the industrial chain is more balanced; The competitiveness and anti-risk ability of integrated leading enterprises have been significantly enhanced; Industry product development continues to strengthen, product differentiation and high quality has been able to meet the domestic and international market demand...

In 2021, China's chemical fiber industry has entered the recovery stage of the post-epidemic era, and the overall situation shows that prices have risen, profits have increased, and inventories have stabilized, achieving a good start of the "14th Five-Year Plan". However, it is worth noting that with the gradual weakening of the low base effect in 2020, the growth momentum of the industry has gradually slowed down, and the growth rate of the main economic operation indicators has shown a clear "high before low" trend.

First, the basic operation of the chemical fiber industry in 2021

(1) Production situation

In 2021, the output of chemical fiber was 65.24 million tons, an increase of 8.29% (Table 1). Among them, in addition to the viscose filament and acrylic fiber production decreased by 2.42% and 11.87%, respectively, the output of other main products achieved positive growth, especially the polyester filament increased by 10.77% and spandex increased by 10.08%.

(2) Import and export information

In 2021, international trade in the chemical fiber industry has basically returned to normal, and the number of imports and exports of chemical fiber products has shown a growth trend. Chemical fiber imports were 834,500 tons, up 9.92% year-on-year, but still down 9.10% compared with 2019. Except for polyester staple fiber imports decreased by 12.68% year-on-year, imports of other major products increased year-on-year (Table 2). The export volume of chemical fiber was 5.1991 million tons, an increase of 11.55% year-on-year, which has returned to the level of 2019 before the epidemic. Among them, except for the export volume of viscose staple fiber and acrylic fiber decreased by 13.16% and 26.98%, respectively, the export volume of other major products achieved positive growth.

(3) Market conditions

In 2021, under the logic of cost support and better demand, the overall price focus of the chemical fiber market will return to the pre-epidemic level (Figure 1 to Figure 5). Polyester, although the market price is fluctuating upward trend, but the increase is less than the raw material, at the end of December compared with the beginning of the year, the raw material PTA increase of 34%, polyester filament (POY) and polyester staple fiber increase of 21% and 17% respectively; In terms of nylon, at the end of December, compared with the beginning of the year, raw material CPL increased by 22%, and nylon (POY) increased by 18%; In terms of viscose staple fiber, the market price reached a peak in early March, and then fell significantly, to the end of September to about 11800 yuan/ton, basically falling to the level at the beginning of the year, although the fourth quarter rose slightly, but soon fell, to the end of December the price basically maintained at 12000 yuan/ton level; In terms of spandex, the market price increase is the most obvious, 40D products from the beginning of the year 39,000 yuan/ton rose rapidly to 65,000 yuan/ton in early March, and then rose to 80,000 yuan/ton in early August, after a slight decline, but the overall still maintained at about 75,000 yuan/ton.

There are two main reasons for the apparent rise in spandex. From the cost side, PTMEG is the most important raw material of spandex, accounting for about 80% of the raw material consumption of spandex. Another application area of its raw material BDO, PBAT (a degradable material), has seen a sharp increase in demand under the favorable policy of "plastic limit order", resulting in a sharp rise in the price of BDO, which in turn has pushed up the price of PTMEG and spandex. From the demand side, with the technological progress and product development of the spandex industry, spandex is not only an elastic material, it can also bring changes in fabric style, application scenarios and consumption have increased significantly. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for home wear, sportswear, elastic fabrics, and medical spandex has increased, and the proportion of spandex content in some fabrics has increased, and spandex has become a main raw material from "monosodium glutamate" in textile products. For example, the amount of spandex added in some yoga clothing sportswear fabrics has increased from 10% to 20%, and some have increased to 15% to 25%, and even some sports underwear fabrics have spandex content of more than 50%, surpassing nylon as the main material; The demand for spandex used in masks and protective clothing during the epidemic has also contributed greatly.