China's chemical fiber industry migration path and chemical fiber industry development trend panorama

Global chemical fiber industry migration path

Chemical fiber industry chain overview: There are many kinds of products, mainly used in clothing and home textiles

From the product type analysis, textile fiber can be divided into natural fiber and chemical fiber two categories, natural fiber mainly includes plant fiber, animal fiber and mineral fiber; Chemical fiber refers to the use of natural or synthetic polymer substances as raw materials, through chemical and physical processing and made of fiber.

According to the latest "Classification of National Economic industries", chemical fibers in the bio-based chemical fibers as a separate sub-industry, that is, chemical fibers include: cellulose fibers (man-made fibers), synthetic fibers and bio-based chemical fibers three categories. Artificial fiber is the use of cellulose or protein and other natural polymers as raw materials, chemical and mechanical processing, such as rayon cotton, rayon silk; Synthetic fibers are processed from by-products in the petrochemical and coking industries, including polyamide, polyester, polyamide, polypropylene, spandex, etc. In addition, according to the fiber length, each chemical fiber product can be divided into two categories: short fiber and filament.

From the downstream application of the product, the chemical fiber after prevention and control into cloth, mainly used in the field of clothing and home textiles; In addition, some materials can be used for industrial purposes, such as automobile tire cord fabric.

The development process of the global chemical fiber industry: From scratch, chemical fiber gradually replaced cotton

From the perspective of demand analysis, according to Fiber Organon and Japan Chemical Fiber Association statistics, since the beginning of the 20th century, the world fiber growth has mainly experienced three stages: the first stage (1900-1937), the growth of the fiber industry mainly relies on cotton, chemical fiber industry is still in the initial stage of development; In the second stage (1937-1995), cotton and chemical fiber jointly supported the growth of fiber industry, and chemical fiber gradually replaced cotton; In the third phase (1995-2030), fiber demand is supported by chemical fibers.

From the perspective of supply, the development of chemical fiber industry is mainly concentrated in the above second stage (chemical fiber gradually replacing cotton), 1978, chemical fiber in the initial stage of development, China's chemical fiber production of 285,000 tons, accounting for only 3% of the world; By 1986, many countries began to focus on the development of chemical fiber industry, China's Taiwan production capacity ranked third in the world; 1994 is the turning point of the development of the global chemical fiber industry, the world chemical fiber production increased by 5.8% over 1993, reaching 19.679 million tons; Due to wind, flood and insect pests, cotton production decreased, the demand gradually shifted to chemical fiber, chemical fiber rapidly increased production; In 1998, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer of chemical fiber.

Chemical fiber has the highest status in the global fiber, accounting for more than 70%

According to the statistics of the Japan Chemical Fiber Association, the world's total fiber production and chemical fiber production as a whole are on the rise, and the chemical fiber production growth rate is almost higher than the total fiber production growth rate. In 2017, the world's total fiber output reached 93.71 million tons, breaking through the 90 million tons mark for the first time and reaching a record high. Among them, the chemical fiber was 66.94 million tons (excluding polyolefin fiber and acetate tow), maintaining the ninth consecutive year of increase. Based on the current development status of the chemical fiber industry and the textile industry, it is estimated that the total output of the world fiber in 2018 will be about 97.5 million tons, and the total output of chemical fiber will be about 71 million tons (follow the official data released by the Japan Chemical Fiber Association).

From 2005 to 2018, the proportion of chemical fiber production in global fiber production changed from 57.2% to 72.8%, that is, the status of chemical fiber continues to rise globally, and chemical fiber gradually replaces natural fiber.

Analysis of migration path of global chemical fiber industry

From the above analysis, it can be seen that 1994 is the turning point of the development of the global chemical fiber industry, and 2010 is the highest growth rate of chemical fiber production, so 1994, 2010 and 2017 are selected (2018 official data has not been released yet). In order to ensure the accuracy of the migration path, the migration path of the global chemical fiber industry is explored based on the distribution of global chemical fiber output at three time nodes (2017).

 In 1994, all countries were in the initial stage of development, and the production distribution was relatively uniform, with the United States ranking first (accounting for 17.39%). By 2010, China's chemical fiber production ranks first in the world, accounting for up to 64.10%; The proportion of Taiwan and South Korea decreased, but the absolute volume of output did not change much, and the industrial transfer was not obvious. In Western Europe, the United States and Japan, both absolute and relative volumes have fallen sharply, and industries have shifted.