Downstream demand recovery, chemical fiber industry ushered in a cycle reversal

2.2, downstream demand gradually recovered, filament price spread continued to expand

The downstream application of polyester filament is mainly divided into three areas: industry, home textiles and textile and apparel, 2016-2020 polyester filament in the textile and apparel industry consumption of 53.95 million tons, accounting for 52% of the total downstream consumption, the textile and apparel industry demand changes have a significant impact on the demand pattern of polyester filament industry.

Domestic filament downstream recovery, overseas textile demand recovery. The demand terminal of China's textile and garment industry is mainly in the country, the epidemic attack in early 2020 led to a reduction in the demand for textile and garment and other daily necessities, a large number of textile and garment retail stores were closed, and the cumulative retail sales of daily necessities in February were negative for the first time in nearly seven years, and the cumulative export amount of textiles and kimono was reduced by 19% and 20% respectively. Affected by the textile and clothing industry, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament in January and February was only 19%. Since the second quarter, the domestic epidemic has been brought under control, and people's living consumption has gradually returned to normal. With the deterioration of the epidemic situation abroad, the demand for textile and clothing products, especially epidemic prevention materials, has increased sharply. Due to the shutdown of overseas factories due to the epidemic, a large number of foreign textile and clothing orders transferred to domestic enterprises, domestic downstream textile and clothing factories in strict observance of the epidemic prevention policy under the premise, the operating rate increased from 5% in early February to 65% in early March, and continued to maintain an upward trend, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament increased to 350% on November 10. Since the third quarter, the global epidemic has been under certain control, textile and clothing factories have resumed work and production, and China's polyester filament exports have continued to increase, gradually increasing from -32% in January to 1.6% in December. In 2020, the apparent consumption of polyester filament in China will be 30.47 million tons, an increase of 1.6%. Exports were 2.21 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year. Although the new coronavirus vaccine has been successfully developed and gradually put into use, it still takes a long time for the vaccine to reach global coverage, and the world will enter a normal situation of epidemic prevention and control in the next few years, and the steady growth of textile demand will drive the polyester filament industry to continue to improve.