After the "double control of energy consumption" power limit production, how big is the impact of the chemical fiber textile industry?

In the national 145th "carbon peak - carbon neutral" background, energy consumption double control policy suddenly attacked, so that the entire industry is nervous, chemical fiber textile enterprises have always been a representative of high energy consumption, in the "double control" policy and environmental protection inspectors, many production enterprises have been affected, according to incomplete statistics, Dozens of textile and chemical fiber clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including Wujiang Shengze, Nantong, Changzhou, Jiangyin, Taicang and Shaoxing Keqiao, have carried out different degrees of double control stop and limit production actions.

01 The impact of dual control policy on polyester industry chain

Zhejiang area is China's main polyester production area, Zhejiang, Jiangsu two provinces polyester production capacity accounts for about 77% of the country's total polyester production capacity, Zhejiang is the largest production and marketing province, and Zhejiang is mainly concentrated in Huzhou, Xiaoshao, Ningbo area, polyester industry layout is relatively concentrated.

At present, the concentration of polyester industry chain in the provinces with limited production caused by double control is very high, PTA production capacity accounts for 93% of the national production capacity, MEG production capacity accounts for 70%, and polyester production capacity accounts for 94%.

The downstream of spinning and weaving is mainly distributed in Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places, these industries have higher energy consumption, and the corresponding provincial dual control policy is in the first level warning, so the actual terminal will be affected by more.

At present, for the polyester industry chain, PX and PTA have not been temporarily affected by double control, but it is not ruled out that there will be devices affected, the biggest impact is the polyester link, the polyester end due to the overall energy consumption intensity is higher, so the impact of double control is more obvious, from the distribution point of view, the polyester production capacity of the first warning province has 29.11 million tons. The polyester production capacity of the second-level warning provinces is 32.26 million tons, and the comprehensive proportion of the production capacity of the two reaches 94% of the country.

Since the specific impact of the dual control policy on various industries is unpredictable, the possible impact of the dual control is analyzed from the perspective of probability and the order of strength, and the results can be summarized as follows:

First-level warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 13 million tons (small-scale installation), MEG is expected to be affected by 1.65 million tons (coal), polyester 29.11 million tons, from a structural point of view, the most vulnerable in the industrial chain is polyester, followed by MEG, and finally PTA; From the perspective of capacity comparison, the impact on the demand side is greater than the impact on the supply side.

First/second warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 18 million tons (small-scale installations), MEG is expected to be affected by 4 million tons, polyester is expected to be affected by 61 million tons, the conclusion is basically unchanged.

02 Process characteristics determine that spandex manufacturers are less affected by dual control

For spandex manufacturers of continuous polymerization dry spinning, long-term parking is unrealistic, due to the characteristics of continuous polymerization process, after long-term parking, pipeline reactors, material storage tanks, etc., a large number of gel and stock solution caking phenomenon, the subsequent normal driving will be seriously affected, in fact, many continuous polymerization process spandex manufacturers, There will be no periodic parking maintenance at all, which is different from other chemical fiber textile products.

Relatively speaking, the downstream demand side is greatly affected by the dual control, which may have a negative impact on the spandex market in the short term, but after the end of the limit, the possibility of a concentrated outbreak of the demand side cannot be ruled out.

03 Textile chemical fiber light red, or will exacerbate the rise in prices

In some provinces, due to the dual control of energy consumption is still a red light warning, so there will be limited production measures for some energy-consuming industries to ensure the completion of the annual dual control indicators, and due to the tight time and heavy task, there may be relatively severe measures, which may further exacerbate the price rise of the entire textile industry chain.

On the other hand, in the future, it will become more and more obvious that energy consumption indicators will become the core bottleneck factor limiting the expansion of new capacity, because the textile chemical fiber industry is a number of energy consumption is relatively large industry, under this background if there are such strong constraints for the stock enterprises, especially the operating rate above the strong constraints, then you can imagine that if you want to add new capacity indicators, It's going to be harder.

For the downstream weaving end, it will seriously affect the subsequent supply of raw materials, for the response speed of demand, the time of short supply will be extended, the chemical impact of this wave of energy consumption dual control, at present, it is just beginning, for some areas with relatively fast growth, especially with the new energy demand related fields, it is possible that the upstream high energy consumption industry will become a continuous supply bottleneck.

In 2017 and 2018, due to the tightening of environmental assessment and safety assessment, with the discharge of sewage, solid waste, waste gas and other emissions per unit of output value as the core indicator, small scattered pollution enterprises have been shut down in a large area, many of which are concentrated in the fine chemical industry, including a batch of fine chemical industries such as dyes at that time, there was a relatively large boom market. And the effect continues to this day.

Energy consumption double control will affect the operating rate of many industries in the short and medium term, while in the medium and long term will limit the expansion of a number of energy-consuming industries, restrict the current supply, making the energy-consuming industry gradually become a license industry, so the industry analysis, this large-scale limit production or will once again build momentum for price increases.

04 Order delay, increase the price, printing and dyeing industry to become the vanguard of price increases

Although the peak of electricity consumption in previous years has also been the situation of power rationing, but "open two stop five", "limit production 90%", "thousands of enterprises stop limited production" are unprecedented, if the long term electricity, production capacity is certainly not up to demand, can only further reduce orders, making the demand side supply more tight.

Now the traditional peak season of gold nine silver ten this supply is very scarce, superimposed double control of energy consumption will lead to a reduction in the supply of high-energy products, and as the middle link of the entire textile industry chain printing and dyeing factory is in an awkward position, in the context of the three traditional energy "water, electricity, gas" continued to rise in price, at the same time by dyes, additives, large chemicals and other types of chemical prices. This makes textile and printing and dyeing enterprises face huge operating pressure, and the situation is more severe.

05 State control

1. Is there a "deviation" phenomenon in large-scale power rationing and production reduction?

In the face of the inevitable new round of raw material shock, electricity gap and possible "deviation" phenomenon, the state has also done some measures to ensure the supply of stable prices.

2. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly carried out supervision of energy supply and price stabilization

The supervision work is mainly on-site supervision, focusing on the implementation of policies on increasing coal production and supply in relevant provinces, regions and enterprises, the verification and release of advanced production capacity, the completion of procedures for the construction and operation of relevant projects, the implementation of full coverage of medium and long-term contracts for coal for power generation and heating, the performance of medium and long-term contracts, and the implementation of pricing policies for coal production, transportation, trading and sales. Implementation of the market-based pricing mechanism of "benchmark price + fluctuation" for coal-fired power generation.

In view of the difficulties and problems encountered by enterprises in the release of advanced production capacity, the supervision work will go deep into enterprises and relevant departments, promote the implementation of the requirements of the "discharge service", help enterprises coordinate to solve the outstanding problems affecting the release of production capacity, and strive to increase the supply of coal and ensure the demand for coal for production and life of the people by taking measures such as parallel handling of relevant procedures.

3. National Development and Reform Commission: The Northeast heating coal will be 100% of the implementation of long-term contract prices

The National Development and Reform Commission organized relevant provincial and regional economic operation departments, major coal production enterprises in the Northeast region, guaranteed supply coal mines and key power generation and heating enterprises in the Northeast region to focus on the signing of medium and long-term contracts for coal in the heating season, increasing the proportion of medium and long-term contracts for power generation and heating enterprises to 100%.

In addition, in order to effectively ensure the implementation and effectiveness of a series of measures issued by the State to maintain energy supply and stabilize prices, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly sent a supervision team to focus on the implementation of the policy of increasing coal production and increasing supply, nuclear increase and release of advanced production capacity, and project construction and operation procedures. And the implementation of price policies in all aspects of coal production, transportation, trading and sales, and strive to increase coal supply and ensure the demand for coal for production and life of the people.

4. National Development and Reform Commission: Hold the 7-day coal storage safety bottom line

Learned from the National Development and Reform Commission, in order to do a good job of ensuring the supply of coal and stable prices, ensure the safe and stable supply of coal and coal power, the relevant departments require the improvement of the coal safety storage system for coal-fired power plants, reduce the coal storage standards for peak season power plants, and hold the 7-day coal safety bottom line.

The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have established a special class for power coal supply, and the power plants that implement the differential coal storage system in the off-peak season are included in the key guarantee scope to ensure that the power plant's 7-day safe coal storage bottom line is firmly held. When the days of power coal inventory availability are less than 7 days during the operation of the power plant, the key guarantee mechanism will be immediately launched, and the relevant departments and key enterprises will focus on coordinating the guarantee in terms of coal source and transport capacity.