After the "double control of energy consumption" power limit production, how big is the impact of the chemical fiber textile industry?

In the national 145th "carbon peak - carbon neutral" background, energy consumption double control policy suddenly attacked, so that the entire industry is nervous, chemical fiber textile enterprises have always been a representative of high energy consumption, in the "double control" policy and environmental protection inspectors, many production enterprises have been affected, according to incomplete statistics, Dozens of textile and chemical fiber clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including Wujiang Shengze, Nantong, Changzhou, Jiangyin, Taicang and Shaoxing Keqiao, have carried out different degrees of double control stop and limit production actions.

01 The impact of dual control policy on polyester industry chain

Zhejiang area is China's main polyester production area, Zhejiang, Jiangsu two provinces polyester production capacity accounts for about 77% of the country's total polyester production capacity, Zhejiang is the largest production and marketing province, and Zhejiang is mainly concentrated in Huzhou, Xiaoshao, Ningbo area, polyester industry layout is relatively concentrated.

At present, the concentration of polyester industry chain in the provinces with limited production caused by double control is very high, PTA production capacity accounts for 93% of the national production capacity, MEG production capacity accounts for 70%, and polyester production capacity accounts for 94%.

The downstream of spinning and weaving is mainly distributed in Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places, these industries have higher energy consumption, and the corresponding provincial dual control policy is in the first level warning, so the actual terminal will be affected by more.

At present, for the polyester industry chain, PX and PTA have not been temporarily affected by double control, but it is not ruled out that there will be devices affected, the biggest impact is the polyester link, the polyester end due to the overall energy consumption intensity is higher, so the impact of double control is more obvious, from the distribution point of view, the polyester production capacity of the first warning province has 29.11 million tons. The polyester production capacity of the second-level warning provinces is 32.26 million tons, and the comprehensive proportion of the production capacity of the two reaches 94% of the country.

Since the specific impact of the dual control policy on various industries is unpredictable, the possible impact of the dual control is analyzed from the perspective of probability and the order of strength, and the results can be summarized as follows:

First-level warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 13 million tons (small-scale installation), MEG is expected to be affected by 1.65 million tons (coal), polyester 29.11 million tons, from a structural point of view, the most vulnerable in the industrial chain is polyester, followed by MEG, and finally PTA; From the perspective of capacity comparison, the impact on the demand side is greater than the impact on the supply side.

First/second warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 18 million tons (small-scale installations), MEG is expected to be affected by 4 million tons, polyester is expected to be affected by 61 million tons, the conclusion is basically unchanged.

02 Process characteristics determine that spandex manufacturers are less affected by dual control

For spandex manufacturers of continuous polymerization dry spinning, long-term parking is unrealistic, due to the characteristics of continuous polymerization process, after long-term parking, pipeline reactors, material storage tanks, etc., a large number of gel and stock solution caking phenomenon, the subsequent normal driving will be seriously affected, in fact, many continuous polymerization process spandex manufacturers, There will be no periodic parking maintenance at all, which is different from other chemical fiber textile products.

Relatively speaking, the downstream demand side is greatly affected by the dual control, which may have a negative impact on the spandex market in the short term, but after the end of the limit, the possibility of a concentrated outbreak of the demand side cannot be ruled out.

03 Textile chemical fiber light red, or will exacerbate the rise in prices

In some provinces, due to the dual control of energy consumption is still a red light warning, so there will be limited production measures for some energy-consuming industries to ensure the completion of the annual dual control indicators, and due to the tight time and heavy task, there may be relatively severe measures, which may further exacerbate the price rise of the entire textile industry chain.

On the other hand, in the future, it will become more and more obvious that energy consumption indicators will become the core bottleneck factor limiting the expansion of new capacity, because the textile chemical fiber industry is a number of energy consumption is relatively large industry, under this background if there are such strong constraints for the stock enterprises, especially the operating rate above the strong constraints, then you can imagine that if you want to add new capacity indicators, It's going to be harder.