Analysis of economic operation of China's chemical fiber industry in 2020

In 2020, due to the serious impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the operation of China's chemical fiber industry faces increased risks and tests, and the economic benefits and operation quality of the industry have dropped significantly year-on-year.

During the year, the collapse of international crude oil prices coupled with low market demand made the overall price of China's chemical fiber market run at a low level. The overseas epidemic situation is grim, and the number of China's import and export of chemical fiber products has decreased significantly.

However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation in China, the whole industrial chain has accelerated the resumption of work and production, the textile terminal demand has gradually picked up, the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry has also shown a rebound, the production growth rate has risen steadily, and the decline of the main economic operation indicators has continued to narrow.

However, on the whole, we still have to realize that the pressure on the production and operation of industry enterprises has not been completely alleviated, the development confidence is still insufficient, and the efficiency and investment have not reversed the negative growth trend.

Operation of the industry in 2020

The total production of chemical fiber increased by 3.4% year-on-year

From the perspective of the whole year of 2020, affected by the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the load rate of China's chemical fiber industry fell sharply in the first quarter, and then gradually recovered, and the second half of the year was basically unchanged from the same period of last year.

By product, the operating rate of polyester staple fiber industry gradually recovered from the minimum operating rate of 52% on February 7, 2020; From late April to November, the operating rate has remained above 86%; Starting in December, the operating rate has fallen slightly, but it is still above 85%.

The operating rate of the polyester filament industry gradually recovered from the minimum operating rate of 58% on February 14, 2020; From May to December, the operating rate has remained at around 80%.

The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry dropped to 64% on February 14, 2020; It has remained at around 60% since then; An upward trend appeared at the end of September; It rose to 72% at the end of October; The operating rate in the fourth quarter was basically maintained at about 75%.

From the total output point of view, in 2020, China's chemical fiber production is 60.251,200 tons, an increase of 3.4%.

Among them, the output of polyester, nylon, vinylon and spandex all achieved positive growth, increasing by 3.89%, 3.87%, 11.06% and 14.44% respectively. The output of viscose fiber and acrylic fiber showed negative growth, decreasing by 4.11% and 5.12% respectively.

Within the year, in terms of months, the year-on-year growth rate of China's chemical fiber production showed a rebound trend. Especially in the second half of the year, the production situation of chemical fiber enterprises continued to improve. From January to September, the year-on-year growth rate of chemical fiber production changed from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% was achieved throughout the year.

Both imports and exports fell

In 2020, the number of chemical fiber imported by China is 759,000 tons, a decrease of 17.3%. In all chemical fiber product categories, except for the import of spandex increased by 5.16% year-on-year, the import of other major chemical fiber products declined year-on-year.

In 2020, the total export volume of China's chemical fiber products was 4.660,600 tons, down 7.92% year-on-year, but the export volume of polyester filament, viscotic staple fiber, spandex and acrylic fiber all achieved positive growth year-on-year.

The market price center of gravity is generally low

From the raw material side, in the first quarter of 2020, the decline in demand caused by the crude oil "price war" combined with the epidemic has caused a slump in international oil prices. Oil prices fell below zero in April for the first time in history. Then it begins to shake upwards to repair; It was basically stable in the third quarter. In early November, it gradually began to rise, OPEC+ crude oil production reduction policy and additional Saudi crude oil production reduction, the new US government implemented a large-scale economic stimulus plan and demand improvement and other multiple factors, favorable international oil prices continued to rise. But for the whole year, in 2020, international oil prices are much lower than in 2019.

Affected by the decline in raw material prices and lack of demand, throughout the year, the overall price center of gravity of China's chemical fiber market is significantly lower than in 2019. In the first quarter, with the collapse of international crude oil prices, China's chemical fiber products lost cost support. After that, with the repair of crude oil prices, China's chemical fiber market gradually stabilized, but the lack of demand is still the biggest problem facing the industry. In the third quarter, China's chemical fiber market performance was basically stable. Since mid-September, due to China's economic recovery, the "La Nina" phenomenon led to an increase in cold winter demand, the "double 11" order demand was started in advance, and textile orders in India and other places were significantly transferred to the Chinese market, China's chemical fiber market appeared "gold nine silver ten". After that, the market experienced a brief correction. At the end of the fourth quarter, the market has pushed up costs, good demand, low inventory, etc., coupled with the price of chemical fiber products throughout the year at a low level, corporate efficiency is poor, and even losses, the market has a strong rebound demand, the price of China's chemical fiber products began to rebound.