Under the big goal of carbon neutrality, why does our country still develop natural gas?

1. Large scale of energy system and heavy task of emission reduction

China has the world's largest energy production, transformation, transmission and distribution system, the total energy production in 2020 will be 4.08×109 tce, the total energy consumption will be 4.98×109 tce, accounting for about 25% of the global total energy consumption; The installed capacity of thermal power, hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic ranks first in the world. China is still in the late stage of industrialization, and the demand for energy use will continue to grow in the short term. The forecast results of many institutions at home and abroad show that China's total energy consumption will peak around 2035 (about 5.7×109 tce).

In terms of carbon emissions, the historical peak of the United States is 5.7×109 t, the historical peak of the European Union is 4.4×109 t, and the peak of China's carbon emissions may exceed 1.04×1010 t before 2030. It can be seen that the task of optimizing and adjusting China's energy structure and carbon emission reduction is arduous and onerous.

2. Short energy transition time

The EU countries have reached the carbon peak in the 1990s, and the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries have also reached the carbon peak around 2010. According to the global net zero emissions target of 2050, the time interval between carbon peak and carbon neutrality is mostly 40 to 70 years, with an average cycle of about 50 years. China's carbon peak, carbon neutral interval is only 30 years, in the case of sustainable economic development, sustainable growth of energy to promote the realization of carbon peak, carbon neutral goals will face the double pressure of development and emission reduction.

Therefore, in the case of less than 10 years from the realization of the carbon peak goal, it is urgent to coordinate short - and medium-term development, grasp the window period and critical period of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and build a solid foundation for the realization of short-term peak and medium - and long-term neutral goals.

3. High cost of energy transition

According to estimates, the total investment to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China is about 136 to 300 trillion yuan, accounting for 1/3 of the total investment cost to achieve net zero emissions in the world before 2030. The cost of energy transition is high, and while fully introducing social capital and maximizing market regulation mechanisms to promote the development of renewable energy, it is also necessary to properly solve the cost waste problem caused by the grounding of fossil energy infrastructure.

For example, the average service life of coal power units in Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries and regions is about 40 years, and they are currently in a period of large-scale retirement, and the coal development cycle is consistent with the trend of low-carbon transition. Due to the late start of China's industrial development, the average operation life of coal power units is only 12 years, and the "one-size-fits-all" coal power unit withdrawal mechanism will bring great asset stranded cost.

Therefore, in the process of achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, we should not only prevent the transition lag under the pretext of practical problems, but also prevent the transition without considering the reality. We should promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in an orderly manner at our own pace, properly handle the relationship between development and emission reduction, short and medium term, and take into account the development needs of different energy varieties at different stages, in different fields and in different regions, adapt to local conditions, and explore the optimal plan for the energy transition path in the context of the overall transition.

(3) The principle of energy transition development under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

1. Not at the expense of energy security

Fossil energy will remain the main body of China's energy supply for a long period of time in the future, in view of China's current energy consumption continues to grow, oil and gas dependence on foreign countries, renewable energy early insufficient power and other practical problems, energy security risks in the process of energy transformation gradually appear. In terms of coal, due to the global policy and investment restrictions, the sharp compression of production capacity and the rapid rise in prices have directly led to the "power cut" crisis in many places in China.

In terms of oil and natural gas, China's dependence on foreign countries is as high as 70% and 40%, respectively, under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China's oil import quota is constantly tightened, superimposed on international oil and gas price fluctuations and other factors, domestic oil and gas supply is facing severe challenges. In terms of renewable energy, global extreme climate events occur frequently, and the instability defects of wind and light energy supply gradually appear. Therefore, China's energy transformation in the short-term domestic demand to adhere to the "first to break" principle, priority to stabilize the supply of fossil energy; In the medium and long term, we will vigorously develop renewable energy, gradually get rid of the excessive dependence on imported energy, and support China's economic and social development with cleaner, low-carbon, safe and independent energy.