Under the big goal of carbon neutrality, why does our country still develop natural gas?

2. Not at the cost of significantly increasing the cost of energy use

In the process of energy transformation, cost reduction should be taken as the internal drive to promote non-fossil energy to replace fossil energy. From the perspective of the full cost of energy supply, the development scale and rhythm of renewable energy should be considered, and the cost advantages of renewable energy and fossil energy should be integrated. The simulation results show that the absorption cost of renewable energy will increase with the increase of penetration ratio. When the penetration ratio is 30%, the absorption cost accounts for about 17% of the average electricity sale price in China, and the absorption cost ratio will be as high as 30% under the higher percentage penetration scenario. Therefore, the development of renewable energy in China should also fully consider the maturity and development scale of energy storage peaking technology to avoid a sharp rise in power absorption costs and terminal costs.

3. Not at the expense of energy efficiency

A study by the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that the cumulative carbon reduction contribution from energy efficiency improvements between 2020 and 2070 will be about 40%. China's energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2020 will be about 0.49 tce/ 10,000 yuan, 1.4 times the world average and 2.1 times that of developed countries. Improving energy efficiency is an important support and leading direction for China to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

Third, China's natural gas development opportunities and advantages

(1) Having the resources and infrastructure for leapfrog development

1. World gas supply is abundant

The world's natural gas reserves are extremely rich, especially with the advent of the shale gas revolution, which has greatly improved the exploitation level of natural gas resources. The world natural gas resources, storage production and reserve-production ratio are shown in Table 1. The total remaining recoverable resources of conventional and unconventional natural gas in 2019 are 8.03×1014 m3, and the remaining proved recoverable reserves in 2020 are 1.881×1014 m3. Based on 2020 production (3.85×1011 m3), the global gas storage and production ratio is estimated to be 48.8, which remains at a high level and has a sustainable resource and reserve base.

In recent years, with the continuous development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, the number of LNG exporting countries in the world has exceeded 50, and the volume of LNG trade has continued to grow rapidly. The average annual growth rate in the past ten years is 6.8%, much higher than the 1.8% growth rate of pipeline gas. In 2020, LNG trade volume will reach 4.879×1011 m3, accounting for 51.9% of the world's total natural gas trade, surpassing pipeline gas for the first time. In the future, global gas production will grow at an average annual rate of 1.4%, and production is expected to reach 5.4×1012 m3 in 2040. The abundant reserves of global natural gas resources, the continuous growth of production and the continuous improvement of natural gas infrastructure have laid a good foundation for China to utilize overseas natural gas resources.

2. China's natural gas exploration and development is booming

China is rich in natural gas resources, low in exploration and development, and has great potential for development. According to relevant estimates, the technical recoverable resources of conventional gas, shale gas and coal-bed gas in China are 3.33×1013 m3, 1.285×1013 m3 and 1.25×1013 m3 respectively, with a total of 5.865×1013 m3. By the end of 2019, the cumulative proved technically recoverable reserves of conventional gas, shale gas and coal-bed gas in China were 7.69×1012 m3, 4.334×1011 m3 and 3.285×1011 m3, respectively, with proven rates of 23%, 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively, and they were in the early stage of exploration.

Since 2000, China's natural gas industry has ushered in great development, and conventional gas and unconventional gas have been simultaneously developed, and 28 large gas fields with geological reserves of over 100 billion cubic meters have been discovered successively, such as Sulige, Anyi, Kelasu, Fuling and Puguang, and the newly proved geological reserves have exceeded 5×1011 m3 for 18 consecutive years (see Figure 1). The four atmospheres of Ordos, Sichuan, Tarim and South China Sea have been built, and natural gas production has increased from 2.44×1010 m3 in 2000 to 1.888×1011 m3 in 2020 (see Figure 2), with an average annual growth rate of 10.8%. Comprehensive resource base, exploration and discovery and production characteristics forecast, through the parallel development of normal and non-normal, sea and land and other measures, China's natural gas production is expected to reach 3.0×1011 m3 in 2035, natural gas development still has great potential.

3. Natural gas infrastructure is improving

Natural gas infrastructure is an important basis for the rapid development of natural gas. Since the construction of the West-East natural gas transmission project began in 2000, China has built an infrastructure network that runs from east to west, from north to south, and from home to abroad. It has built domestic pipeline systems such as West-east natural gas transmission, Sichuan-East natural gas transmission and Shaanxi-Beijing Line, and a natural gas pipeline network with Central Asia, China-Russia and China-Myanmar transnational pipelines as the main bodies. It has formed four major natural gas import supply patterns of west-east gas transmission, north gas southbound, Myanmar gas eastbound and sea gas landing, and a domestic natural gas pipeline network structure of "three horizontal and three vertical".