Under the big goal of carbon neutrality, why does our country still develop natural gas?

I. Introduction

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a major national strategy, aiming to promote high-quality economic and social development through the transformation of the energy system, and promote the transformation and development of the energy system from fossil energy to renewable energy. At present, China's energy structure has the characteristics of coal-based, large-scale energy system, short transition time and high transition cost; At the same time, in order to solve the problem of energy security and stable supply caused by multi-scale, volatility and uncertainty of renewable energy, it is urgent to explore the feasible path of energy transformation and development.

As a low-carbon fossil energy, natural gas has a solid development foundation and huge development potential, and has unique comparative advantages in various fields of supply and consumption. It can not only play an important role in calming the power grid peak adjustment, low-carbon development in the transportation field, industrial emission reduction, urban environmental pollution control, etc., but also win time for disruptive technological breakthroughs such as energy storage, high-permeability green hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization and storage, and smooth transformation of the energy system.

Therefore, it is of great significance for the high-quality development of China's natural gas industry and the smooth realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals to clarify the role positioning of natural gas in different stages of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, and to appropriately play the unique advantages of natural gas in a clean, low-carbon, efficient and stable manner.

Domestic and foreign institutions have carried out research on China's carbon neutral roadmap, analyzed China's carbon neutral development path and predicted energy demand. According to the forecast results of these institutions, by 2060, the proportion of fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption in China will be 7% to 30%; Natural gas consumption is 1.0×1011~4.9×1011 m3, accounting for about 3%~16% of the total primary energy consumption. There are significant differences in the research conclusions of different institutions on the future development of fossil energy, especially natural gas, reflecting the obvious differences in the understanding of carbon peaking, carbon neutral transition path and the role of natural gas in the transition path.

In view of this, on the basis of scientific understanding of the development stage of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, development challenges, and development principles, this paper systematically studies the development basis of natural gas and opportunities and advantages of both supply and demand, analyzes the development constraints, and puts forward goals and suggestions for natural gas development, with a view to further building consensus and clarifying the development status of natural gas. It provides a basic reference for the country to formulate a carbon peak and carbon neutral development path.

2. Scientific understanding of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

(a) Carbon peak, carbon neutrality is an organic whole composed of two stages

The overall development direction of the two stages of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is the same, but there are some differences.

① Different stages of development. Carbon peaking is the necessary stage and prerequisite basis of carbon neutrality, and carbon neutrality is the ultimate goal and reverse constraint of carbon peaking.

② Different development bases. Carbon peaking is the gradual peaking and carbon control process of high-carbon fossil energy under the background of increasing energy consumption and large-scale introduction of non-water renewable energy. Carbon neutrality is the accelerated growth process of non-fossil energy in the context of peak energy consumption and gradual decommissioning of fossil energy facilities.

(3) Different development priorities. By 2030, focus on carbon control to buy time for the mature development of renewable energy; After 2030, we will focus on building a renewable energy system and promote a revolutionary transformation of the energy structure. On the whole, neither can we separate the two stages to formulate the energy transformation path, nor can we combine the two stages into one stage; To achieve the goal of carbon peak before 2030 is the focus of China's recent energy transformation development.

(2) Challenges facing energy transition development under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

The essence of energy transformation is the upgrading and optimization of energy use structure in various fields, the upgrading and transformation of energy supply and demand system and massive infrastructure. At present, China is the world's largest energy consumer, energy consumption will continue to grow, the proportion of fossil energy is high, the fossil energy infrastructure stock is large, high degree of novelty, energy transformation and development is faced with heavy tasks, short time, high cost multiple challenges.