Commercial vehicles enter the new energy circuit

As a major carbon emitter and the main force of transportation in China, commercial vehicles are a powerful starting point to promote the automobile industry to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System Planning" to actively promote the application of new energy vehicles in urban public transportation and other fields, and by 2025, new energy vehicle sales will account for about 20%.

Driven by the policy, the pace of implementing carbon peak carbon neutrality in the commercial vehicle industry will be further accelerated, and the rapid growth of new energy, increased penetration, intelligent development and full coverage of models have become new trends in the development of the commercial vehicle market.

The growth rate is high but the penetration rate is still low

At the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held recently, Yutong Bus's autonomous driving hydrogen fuel buses appeared in the exhibition area, attracting the attention of the guests.

"This new product, developed through three generations of iterative research and development, can fully meet the needs of diverse environments such as plains, mountains and plateaus." Yutong Group new energy Research Institute president Li Gaopeng introduced.

The promotion and application of new energy vehicles is considered by the industry to be an important way for commercial vehicles to promote "dual carbon". Commercial vehicle sales have continued to decline, but new energy commercial vehicles stand out, production and sales are booming, showing a good situation of market size and development quality. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 197,000, an increase of 51.4%, and the penetration rate reached 4.2%.

Many car companies are competing to layout and deep cultivation of the new energy commercial vehicle market. Byd delivered more than 85,000 pure electric commercial vehicles globally in 2021. In 2014, Geely Holding Group established Geely Commercial Vehicles, and in 2016, officially established a commercial vehicle brand focusing on the new energy field - Remote vehicles.

Liu Hanru, chief scientist of Geely Commercial Vehicle Group, introduced that remote vehicles quickly seized the market in 2021, and quickly established the head position of the new energy commercial vehicle industry through product and business model innovation, and the overall sales volume increased by 288% year on year.

Xu Honglei, deputy director of the Planning and Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, said that the penetration rate of new energy models in the field of commercial vehicles is still low compared with passenger cars. Pure electric commercial vehicles have become the mainstream model of new energy commercial vehicles, and the sales volume of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles has declined year by year, mainly for three reasons: First, the technical bottleneck, the existing battery energy density can not meet the actual needs of commercial vehicles for long-distance and heavy-duty transportation; At present, the purchase cost of pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles is significantly higher than that of diesel trucks, and the use cost of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles is generally higher than that of diesel trucks. Third, there is no carbon emission standard at present, and carbon emission reduction of commercial vehicles cannot be controlled from the source.

There is still a certain gap in the development of new energy commercial vehicles compared with passenger cars, but it also indicates potential and future. CAI Tuanjie, director of the Department of Transport Services of the Ministry of Transport, said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the new promotion goals of new energy vehicles will be further clarified, and by the end of 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the field of urban bus, taxi and logistics distribution will reach 72%, 35% and 20% respectively.

Heavy goods vehicles are key to reducing emissions

Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have been continuously raised, driving the rapid growth of sales of new energy commercial vehicles, especially new energy heavy trucks. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks were 3,223, an increase of 1076%, of which pure electric heavy trucks accounted for more than 99%. It is understood that new energy heavy trucks are currently in short supply, and some companies have placed orders until May.

Heavy goods vehicles are the key to reducing emissions from commercial vehicles. Xu Honglei introduced that in the calculation of carbon emissions of commercial vehicles, the carbon emissions of all commercial vehicles account for nearly 65% of all vehicle carbon emissions, of which the carbon emissions of heavy goods vehicles account for 83.5%, which is the key model of all vehicles in carbon reduction.

The hot sale of new energy heavy trucks began with the "Notice on the Confirmation of National six emission Products for Heavy diesel vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The "Notice" requires that from July 1, 2021, all enterprises to stop the production and sales of heavy-duty diesel vehicles that do not meet the requirements of National six standards. This means that emissions have become an important limiting indicator for the production of heavy trucks. Two months later, the new energy heavy truck ushered in the development of the inflection point.

Liang Linhe, director of Sany Group and chairman of Sany Heavy Truck, said that over the years, the concentration of the domestic heavy truck market has been high, and the five state-owned automobile enterprises at the head account for more than 80% of the market share. New energy has changed the original pattern, in 2021, the new energy heavy truck sales of the traditional five strong OEM Oems are only 17%, and 83% of the share is dominated by new energy and new forces. He expects that new energy heavy trucks will maintain high growth in the next few years.

"With the gradual improvement of the new energy goods system and the continuous maturity of the three power technology, more and more users will choose new energy models." Beijing heavy truck dealer Ma Xinlei believes that in the context of the continuous acceleration of the new energy process of commercial vehicles, dealers should seize the opportunity to change their business ideas and actively explore the new energy truck market.

Promote the reduction of carbon across the industrial chain

To achieve carbon reduction in commercial vehicles, it is necessary to build an energy-saving and carbon reduction ecosystem based on green energy. Only by achieving carbon reduction in the whole industrial chain can we truly achieve the goal of "double carbon".

Wu Xibin, general manager of Beiqi Foton Automobile Co., LTD., said that commercial vehicles are different from passenger cars, and the technical routes for carbon reduction under different use scenarios are different. At present, Foton Automobile can achieve based on the customer's use scenario and working conditions, combined with the product functions and characteristics of commercial vehicles, through different technical routes - pure electric, fuel cell, hybrid power, etc., to promote the development of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the commercial vehicle industry.

To build green ecology of the whole value chain of commercial vehicles, component remanufacturing is an indispensable part. Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out that compared with the original manufacturing, auto parts remanufacturing can save more than 70% of materials and energy consumption, and reduce manufacturing costs by 30% to 50%; Compared with manufacturing new products, the adverse impact on the environment is significantly reduced. Vigorously developing the parts remanufacturing industry is of great significance to the emission reduction and cost reduction of the automobile industry, as well as to promote the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.

However, at present, China's auto parts remanufacturing industry has small, scattered and weak problems. Ye Shengji suggested that relevant departments should not only continue to cultivate and tap market demand, but also promote the establishment of a sound policy and regulatory system, and relevant regions should promote the construction of industrial bases to form an industrial agglomeration effect. From the enterprise level, we should further strengthen the scientific and technological innovation of the auto parts remanufacturing industry, improve the equipment and production capacity of dismantling, cleaning, manufacturing, assembly, etc., at the same time, further standardize the evaluation and certification system of remanufactured products, and actively promote the digital transformation of remanufacturing technology and equipment.

"In addition to deep electrification, there is also intelligent efficiency." Xu Honglei said that the high efficiency of wisdom means that in the future development process of commercial vehicles, the use of intelligent technology to achieve the automatic driving of commercial vehicles and the interaction between vehicle networks to further improve energy efficiency.

"The opportunity to realign the supply chain is here." Liang Linhe believes that energy change, technological change, and industry change have leveled the starting line of the brand, and traditional brands no longer have an inherent advantage. The brand of new energy commercial vehicle has also ushered in a reshuffle, and a new head enterprise will be born.