The trade pattern is reconstructed, and the natural gas price center is rising

1. The global natural gas trade is active, and China continues to promote the development of the industry

The distribution of global natural gas reserves is relatively concentrated, and the Middle East and the CIS countries account for relatively large reserves. From a global perspective, the proven reserves of global natural gas in 2020 will be 188.1 trillion cubic meters, mainly distributed in the Middle East, CIS countries, the Asia-Pacific region, North America and Africa, accounting for 40.3%, 30.1%, 8.8%, 8.1% and 6.9%, respectively, with Central and South America and Europe accounting for relatively small natural gas reserves. They accounted for 4.2% and 1.7% respectively. From the perspective of national production, in 2021, the United States natural gas production ranks first in the world, accounting for 23.1%, Russia ranked second, accounting for 17.4%, Iran, China and Qatar followed, accounting for 6.4%, 5.2% and 4.4%, the five countries accounted for about 56.4%, the global gas supply is more concentrated.

North America and Asia Pacific have a large consumption of natural gas, and the uneven distribution of production and sales has contributed to the active global natural gas trade. In terms of regional consumption, North America and Asia Pacific have the largest consumption, and the natural gas consumption in North America and Asia Pacific in 2021 will be 1034.11 billion cubic meters and 91.83 billion cubic meters, respectively, accounting for 25.6% and 22.7% of the total global consumption. The consumption of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Middle East region was 61.083 billion cubic meters and 57.543 billion cubic meters, respectively, accounting for 15.1% and 14.3% of the global total consumption. Due to the geographical mismatch of global natural gas supply and demand, global natural gas trade continues to be active.

The main global natural gas trading regions are North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. The Americas mainly receive natural gas transported by pipeline, and export a lot of LNG (liquefied natural gas); East Asia receives pipeline natural gas and LNG, mainly LNG; Europe is the world's second largest natural gas importer, almost no exports, mainly from Russia, the Middle East and other neighboring regions imported pipeline gas, and imported some LNG from around the world.

Pipeline natural gas can be large-scale gas transmission, LNG auxiliary peak balancing. LNG is the natural gas to remove impurities after cooling to -162°C to make it into a liquid, liquefied LNG volume can be reduced by 600 times, liquid, LNG will not burn, enhance the safety of transportation and storage. At the consumption terminal, LNG is gasified into a gas. In terms of transportation, LNG is mostly transported by gas ship and gas truck, and pipeline gas is transported by pipe network, which is limited by the construction conditions of pipe network. Therefore, pipeline gas plays the role of large-scale transportation, and LNG can solve the problem of peak regulation. In terms of cost, LNG, LNG gasification station needs to be built in the early stage, generally speaking, the total cost of LNG before reaching the consumption network is about 4-5 US dollars/million British thermal units. In terms of pipeline gas, the laying cost of large-caliber natural gas onshore pipelines is about 3.5 million US dollars/km, and the laying cost of submarine pipelines is about 10 million US dollars

1.1.LNG: Global trade is active, and China is the largest importer

LNG carriers and receiving stations play an important role in the industry chain. From the perspective of the LNG industry chain, in the upstream, after the exploration and exploitation of natural gas, it needs to go through purification, liquefaction and other processes. The midstream link includes storage, loading, transportation, and storage at the receiving station. In the storage process, the required equipment is a thermal storage tank and the air pressure is close to atmospheric pressure. In terms of transportation, transportation vehicles include LNG carriers and tank trucks, and the natural gas evaporating during transportation can be used as fuel for the ship. The receiving station is required to provide storage tanks and regasification units, after which the LNG is regasified and transported to the user terminal through the transmission pipe.

Global LNG trade volume is on a rapid upward trend, and trade is active. Natural gas has significant advantages as a clean energy attribute. As the demand for natural gas continues to increase, the trade volume of natural gas has increased significantly. In terms of LNG, according to Statista data, the global LNG trade volume in 2021 was 51.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5.31%, and the global LNG trade volume from 2000 to 2021 increased from 137 billion cubic meters to 516 billion cubic meters, with a CAGR of about 6.52%.

Global LNG capacity is increasing at a high speed. According to Clarkson data, the total capacity of the global LNG Marine fleet in 2021 will reach 505 million tons deadweight. In 2021, the global LNG fleet will reach 700, an increase of 9.03%. From 2010 to 2021, the global LNG fleet will grow from 360 to 700 at a CAGR of 6.88%. With the continuous increase of LNG demand and the continuous development of global LNG trade, LNG shipping capacity has shown a rapid increase trend.