Europe is the biggest victim of the gas war behind the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Europe is relatively short of fossil energy resources, and only Norway is rich in natural gas reserves among the major countries. From 2011 to 2020, the EU28's natural gas production has remained below half of its consumption for many years, and in recent years, it has declined all the way due to factors such as the shutdown of Norwegian gas fields. By 2019, the EU28's natural gas production is about 4 million terajoules, accounting for only about one-third of its total natural gas consumption.

The lack of its own natural gas resources leads to the European region's natural gas resources are very dependent on imports, for the United States and Russia, the European energy market is a fat meat. As U.S. natural gas production continues to increase, it is bound to expand the market for natural gas sales, and an energy war over natural gas is quietly unfolding on the European continent.

5. The battle for natural gas is also a battle for political supremacy

In recent years, European countries have reached a series of cooperation with Russia to ensure energy supply, among which Germany, despite the opposition of the United States, insists on jointly building the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline project with Russia. If this project is successfully put into operation, it will not only guarantee the energy supply of European countries, but also ease the tension between European countries and Russia and promote regional peace. This is not something the US wants to see; Thus, we saw that the United States repeatedly stirred up regional tensions at the beginning of the year and imposed sanctions on companies related to Nord Stream 2, which eventually led to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

For the United States, the natural gas war in the European market is not only to seize the energy market to obtain foreign exchange, but more importantly to enhance the influence of the United States on the European and even the world energy market and prices to achieve the purpose of controlling other countries and maintaining hegemony.

Behind the gas war, Europe is the biggest victim

1. Natural gas - one of Europe's energy lifeblood

According to data from the European Union's energy Directorate, the proportion of natural gas in the EU's energy consumption has reached 25%, second only to oil's 32%, and the proportion of natural gas in Europe's energy consumption is likely to rise further in the future as governments gradually reduce the use of coal and nuclear power. Dependence on imports for so much of their energy needs is a big concern for European countries.

2, the European natural gas market, Russia is the main source of imports

At present, the main sources of natural gas imports in Europe include Russia, Norway, Algeria and other countries, of which Russia has the largest natural gas reserves and the cheapest price, so it deserves to occupy the largest share of the European natural gas market. According to the data released by the Economic Commission for Europe, Slovenia and other 10 countries all natural gas imports from Russia, the EU 27 countries overall dependence on Russian natural gas imports reached 41%, of which Germany reached 49%, France is 22%.

According to data from the International Energy Agency, Germany's total gas imports in 2020 will be about 3,092,300 terajoules, France's total gas imports will be about 1,920,800 terajoules, and the EU28's total gas imports will be about 17,038,900 terajoules. Combined with data published by the Economic Commission for Europe, it can be calculated that the total gas imports of the EU 28 countries from Russia in 2020 will be about 6,985,900 terajoules, which is about a quarter of China's total electricity consumption in 2019.

3. Supply is short, prices are soaring, and Europe is in an energy crisis

Since the beginning of 2021, affected by factors such as winter heating demand and rapid economic recovery, European energy demand has soared, but due to the decline in wind speed in the North Sea, wind power generation is much lower than in previous years, and there is a huge supply gap in the European energy market. In order to ease the energy shortage, European countries once asked Russia to increase short-term natural gas supply, but Russia refused Europe's request because Germany and other countries repeatedly delayed the approval of Nord Stream 2 under the pressure of the United States, and even reduced the natural gas supply of Yamal-Europe, one of the main pipelines of Russian natural gas to Europe, to zero at the end of 2021. Other gas suppliers to Europe, such as Qatar and Algeria, are unable to make up such a huge energy gap in a short period of time, and Europe has fallen into a serious energy crisis. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, regional stocks of gas in Europe fell to 74.71% of full load levels in 2021, the lowest level in nearly a decade.

The huge energy supply gap has led to soaring energy prices. Since March 2021, European natural gas prices have begun to increase rapidly. The TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, which is regarded as the bellwether of European natural gas prices, has risen from 19.17 euros/megawatt hour in March to 180.27 euros/megawatt hour at its highest. The risk of power outages due to rising gas and electricity prices is clouding the skies over Europe's economic recovery.