Europe is the biggest victim of the gas war behind the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Recently, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has become the focus of the world's attention, and this local war is a microcosm of the confrontation between the United States and other Western countries in the military, economic, political and other fields, and will inevitably affect the development pattern of Europe and even the world in the future. Today, let's take a look at the economic strife behind this geopolitical clash, using natural gas as an example.

Energy hard power: Russia has the world's largest natural gas reserves

Natural gas refers to the mixture of hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon gases naturally stored in the formation. In petroleum geology, it usually refers to oil field gas and gas field gas. Its composition is mainly hydrocarbon, and contains non-hydrocarbon gas; Natural gas combustion produces much less atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions than coal and oil, in today's era of sustainable and renewable development, carbon neutral goals have been put on the development agenda of many countries, natural gas as the cleanest fossil energy in the energy system is gradually rising status.

According to the latest data released by the EIA, as of the beginning of 2021, the world's largest proven natural gas reserves are Russia, with a total of 47,798 cubic kilometers of proven natural gas reserves, followed by Iran and Qatar, and the United States ranked fourth with approximately 13,167 cubic kilometers of proven natural gas reserves.

Energy soft power: After the shale gas revolution, the United States surpassed Russia in natural gas production

Shale gas is natural gas extracted from shale rock, mainly composed of methane, and is an important unconventional natural gas resource. The formation and enrichment of shale gas has its own unique characteristics, and it is usually distributed in the shale source rock strata with large thickness and wide distribution in the basin. The research, exploration and development of shale gas resources in the world first began in the United States, relying on mature development and production technology and perfect pipeline network facilities, the United States has become the only country in the world to achieve large-scale commercial exploitation of shale gas. Since the "shale gas revolution", the United States natural gas production has been climbing, in 2009, the United States with 624 billion cubic meters of production for the first time surpassed Russia to become the world's largest natural gas producer, and then the gap is widening, by 2020, the United States natural gas annual production reached about 36.3 million terajoules, about 1.31 times the annual production of Russian natural gas.

The US-Russia energy battle: Europe becomes the main battleground

As a major producer of natural gas in the world, the United States and Russia produce natural gas in addition to supplying domestic demand, mainly for export to earn foreign exchange.

1. Comparison of the proportion of US and Russian natural gas exports to production

Although the United States has surpassed Russia in natural gas production, the demand for natural gas in the United States is much higher than that of Russia because of its developed industrial system and relatively large population. A large amount of natural gas is used for the domestic market, and only a small part of the natural gas is currently available for export. In 2020, the United States exported about 16 percent of its natural gas production, while Russia exported 33 percent of its natural gas production.

2. Changes in US-Russia natural gas exports

From the specific quantity point of view, from 2011 to 2020, the United States natural gas exports have been rising, and the gap with Russia's natural gas exports is getting smaller and smaller; In 2020, Russia exported about 9.13 million terajoules of natural gas, down 8.1% year-on-year, while the United States exported about 5.89 million terajoules of natural gas, up 15.5% year-on-year.

3. Comparison of distribution of US and Russian natural gas exports

At present, the most important natural gas exports of the United States are Mexico and Canada, mainly because these two countries are onshore neighbors of the United States, and the United States has established a very well developed natural gas transportation pipeline. In 2021, the United States exported about 46.5% of its total natural gas exports to Mexico and Canada. In addition, Northeast Asia is also an important market for US natural gas exports, and in 2021, the proportion of US natural gas exports to China, Japan and South Korea will be 6.76%, 5.34% and 6.82%, respectively.

The main market for Russia's natural gas exports is Europe, with about 52% of Russia's natural gas exports going to the European market in 2020, of which Germany, Italy and France account for 15%, 11% and 8% of Russia's total natural gas exports, respectively. Next to Europe are Turkey and China, which will account for 6% and 5% of Russia's total gas exports respectively in 2020.

4. Europe becomes the main battleground in the US-Russia gas war