Gas "natural gas power generation ② : Is natural gas enough? What is the solution to high gas prices?

To discuss the lack of natural gas resources, we can't get around two words - "gas shortage". In the winter heating season of 2017, there was a shortage of natural gas supply in some parts of northern China, affecting the heating of some residents, causing widespread attention from social public opinion, and so far, I have been afraid. Will the "gas shortage" return? Is there enough natural gas to support the development of gas and electricity?

Is the gas enough?

In fact, the "gas shortage" at the end of 2017 is not a real shortage of resources. Thepaper.cn (www.thepaper.cn) At that time visited Hebei Province, which had the greatest pressure of natural gas supply guarantee, and found that the most direct reason for the unexpected gap in natural gas supply in the province was that the strong promotion of coal to gas exceeded expectations, coupled with the concentrated release of gas demand after the arrival of the heating season, which seriously exceeded the original design of the winter supply guarantee plan. In addition to the increase in terminal natural gas consumption, a series of unexpected occurrences, including the reduction of gas transmission from upstream Central Asia pipelines and the failure of Tianjin LNG terminal to put into operation as scheduled, also put pressure on natural gas supply.

Zhu Xingshan, deputy chief economist of the Planning Department of China National Petroleum Group and Secretary-General of the Special Committee of Petroleum Economy of China Petroleum Society, has relieved doubts on many occasions about whether gas is enough and the dependence of natural gas on foreign countries continues to rise.

According to the forecast of the China Petroleum Exploration Institute, if the development of deep-water natural gas and natural gas hydrate is not taken into account, domestic natural gas production will reach 210 billion to 245 billion square meters in 2025, and can reach 330 billion to 410 billion square meters in 2050, and domestic natural gas can meet the "bottom line demand" including people's livelihood, public service and key industrial gas for a long time.

As the largest oil and gas importer, China's foreign dependence on natural gas climbed to 43% in 2020. According to the research of China Petroleum Research Institute of Economics and Technology, before 2040, China's natural gas dependence on foreign countries increased year by year, reaching a peak of about 53% in 2040, and then began to decline. If the underground coal gasification, deep sea gas and gas hydrate breakthroughs, China's natural gas dependence on foreign countries is expected to further reduce.

Zhu Xingshan believes that as long as proper measures are taken, the risk of supply security is controllable. From the global point of view, natural gas resources are sufficient, the global proven reserves of natural gas is 197 trillion cubic meters, according to the current production can be exploited for more than 50 years, the estimated recoverable resources is 783 to 900 trillion cubic meters, can be exploited for more than 200 years. From the perspective of consumption, developed countries have basically reached the peak of natural gas consumption, and the increase in global demand mainly comes from developing countries such as China and India. China is the country with the largest increase in future gas demand, "it can be said that most of the world's exported natural gas resources are prepared for China." From this point of view, China's utilization of international natural gas resources favorable conditions, medium - and long-term supply security risks are controllable.

"The key is domestic security." Zhu Xingshan suggested that domestic natural gas production to maintain the bottom line demand, production capacity is much greater than production, if a certain import channel supply interruption, domestic production can quickly top, when the import gas is cheap, domestic production down; Continue to improve the diversification of import deployment, but not rely on a single import channel, reduce import risks; Establish an emergency support mechanism.

"Importing natural gas is not scary, but not prepared." 'he said.

This is not one person's opinion.

Luo Zuo County, director of the Research Office of the Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute, who has been engaged in energy economics and strategy research for a long time, wrote that China is the main driver of the increase in natural gas demand in the future for a long time, and more than one-third of the increase in global natural gas demand will come from China by the middle of this century, and China has the right to demand. At present and in the future, the situation of oversupply of natural gas will always exist, and international sellers generally have the desire to strengthen natural gas trade with China, which is generally good for China's use of natural gas. "In the buyer's market has existed for a long time, the natural gas power generation industry should evaluate the situation and moderately accelerate development."