Analysis of the status quo and future trends of the basic chemical industry in 2022 The chemical industry will usher in definite growth opportunities

2.2. Focus on segments with better revenue and profit growth, including polyurethane, spandex, carbon black, etc

From the sub-industry level, among the 29 third-level sub-industries we track, there are 28 sub-industries with positive year-on-year growth in revenue in the first three quarters, and only the growth rate of potash industry decreased by 20.93% year-on-year. Among them, the top five sub-industries are other chemical raw materials, spandex, polyurethane, carbon black, viscose, with a growth rate of 325.83%, 108.97%, 99.31%, 92.73% and 69.86%, in addition to potassium fertilizer, chlor-alkali, tires, phosphorus chemical and phosphate, daily chemical products growth rate is in the last five industries. The growth rates were 2.95%, 10.97%, 11.38% and 13.52%, respectively. There are 26 sub-industries with positive year-on-year growth in net profit, and the top five sub-industries with positive growth are carbon black, soda ash, other chemical raw materials, phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer, with growth rates of 1188.65%, 1065.03%, 1032.90%, 679.49% and 596.53%, respectively. The growth rate of net profit of modified plastics, tires, paint and ink manufacturing, spinning and weaving chemicals, and other rubber products is relatively backward, respectively -49.69%, -36.97%, -1.45%, 5.54%, 14.92%.

2.3. Select the best of the best, it is recommended to layout chemical fiber, agrochemical, chlor-alkali, soda ash and other plates

Based on the analysis of the valuation and profit growth of various chemical subsectors, we found that the current low valuation of chemical subsectors mainly include viscose, spandex, nitrogen fertilizer, soda ash, chlor-alkali, vinylon, textile chemical products, polyester, phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer, polyurethane, carbon black, glass fiber; The sub-sectors with relatively good profit growth rate include carbon black, soda ash, other chemical raw materials, phosphate fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer, other plastic products, phosphorus chemical and phosphate, daily chemical products, spandex, chlor-alkali, polyurethane, fluorine chemical and refrigerant, viscose, etc. In summary, the focus of the plate with low valuation and good performance growth can be summarized as chemical fiber (viscose, spandex, Vinylon), agrochemical (nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer), soda ash, chlor-alkali, polyurethane, etc. We believe that in this year's complex and volatile internal and external environment, the chemical sub-field with good profitability and low valuation will also have more attractive investment opportunities in 2022.

3. Look for investment opportunities in the chemical industry from the perspective of commodity prices

3.1. The prosperity of the industry has increased significantly, and the price of chemical products has generally increased

Since the beginning of the year, the price of chemical products has risen, urea and glyphosate have increased, and acetone and butadiene have decreased significantly. Of the 119 chemical products we track, 101 have seen their prices rise and 18 have seen their prices fall since the beginning of the year, with urea, glyphosate, international potassium chloride, yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid among the top five. The increase was 290.22%, 203.77%, 178.31%, 170.97%, 170.83%, and the bulk products that ranked after the increase mainly included butadiene international, acetone, raw rubber, DMC, soft foam polyether, etc. Since the beginning of this year, prices have fallen 48.78%, 38.01%, 20.59%, 19.70% and 18.64% respectively. Based on the analysis of commodity prices, we find that since commodity prices have generally reached a high level in 2021, we believe that we should look for investment opportunities in 2022 from the perspective of sustainable high commodity prices at the current point of view.

3.2. From the perspective of economic sustainability, it is recommended to pay attention to petrochemical, coal chemical and soda ash

Since the beginning of this year, the price of most chemical commodities has risen to a record high. We believe that the current point should be considered from the perspective of commodity boom sustainability and bottom reversal. At the level of boom sustainability, we recommend paying attention to the investment opportunities of petrochemical industry chain, coal chemical industry and soda ash, for the following reasons:

1) Oil industry chain: As can be seen from Figure 6 in the first chapter of this paper, the revenue of the petroleum and petrochemical sector in the chemical industry accounts for more than 60%, which is very high, which means that once the epidemic subside and the global economy recovers, the downstream demand is boosted, and the petroleum and petrochemical sector is expected to drive the demand of the entire crude oil industry chain due to its high demand volume in the downstream market. Regardless of the influence of geopolitical factors, crude oil prices are likely to maintain a higher price center in 2022. Once the oil price maintains a high price, products in the oil industry chain such as PTA, PX, toluene, chemical fiber and other fields are expected to maintain a high boom.