More than 70% of chemical industry companies have achieved positive growth in operating profit in 2022

1. Comprehensive price index: The CCPI index of chemical products in the first three quarters reached a historical high

The performance of the chemical industry has increased significantly across the board, and its core factor is the rise in prices. First of all, look at the price of the chemical industry, the price of chemical products in 2021 showed a significant growth trend, China's chemical products Price index (CCPI) increased from 4153 points at the beginning of 2021 to 6388 points on October 14, 2021. By December 15, 2021, it had retreated to 5158 points, up 24% for the year. From the beginning of this year to the middle of March, the CCPI index experienced a continuous rising process. From mid-March to early July, the CCPI index continued to fluctuate around 5100 points. From July to August, the CCPI index stabilized around 5200 points. The CCPI began another rapid rise, from October to December, the CCPI index began to correction.

A rough analysis of the reasons can be found that the first half of the rise is driven by demand, and the second half of the rise is a contraction of supply. The price increase before March 2021 is mainly the continuation of the rising demand in 2020, and the vaccination rate in foreign countries continues to increase, the demand recovery is faster than the recovery of production, the increase in import orders in China is clear, the demand-driven chemical prices continue to rise, and the Delta strain from mid-March to July led to repeated outbreaks in some parts of the world. CCPI index turned into a volatile trend; However, after July, due to the impact of energy consumption dual control, some parts of China began to limit production and power, and in September, the power supply was more tight, leading to a serious shortage of products in energy-consuming industries, and the supply crunch pulled up product prices. After the release of electricity supply in October, the CCPI index began to decline to the level close to the beginning of the year.

2, chemical raw materials

Basic chemical raw materials in most of this year showed a significant rise, such as acetic acid rose 123%, pure benzene rose 98%, only ethanol, butadiene and other a few varieties of prices did not rise, showing strong resilience on the demand side, but from October there was a significant price correction.

3, chlor-alkali, titanium dioxide, soda ash

Titanium dioxide: Prices picked up in the first half of this year, the price of upstream titanium ore remains high, the completed area of real estate remains stable, and the recovery of the automotive industry, the demand side margin continues to be obvious, the inventory is obvious, at a historical low, and the release of new capacity takes time, from July to September the industry entered the traditional off-season, the price has been adjusted back. After September, demand entered the peak season and prices increased slightly.

Chlor-alkali: calcium carbide production capacity is affected by carbon neutrality and energy consumption dual control policy, calcium carbide inventory and supply continue to decline, driving up the price; Downstream PVC is driven by the global resumption of production and work, real estate completion area warming, film, pipe, profiles and other building materials demand warming, exports increased, superposition upstream calcium carbide prices rose, PVC prices have also increased significantly. Caustic soda prices rose slightly before August, mainly due to the downstream alumina and paper industry boom, driving caustic soda prices, later calcium carbide prices transmitted to caustic soda, and in the energy consumption dual control policy under the operating rate decline, the price began to rapidly pull up. In mid-October, the operating rate increased, and the price of the chlor-alkali industry chain began to adjust back.

Soda Ash: Soda ash prices have been in an upward trend this year, before September mainly due to the soda ash medium capacity increment is limited, photovoltaic glass production plan to bring the demand increment determination, push up the soda ash price, after September due to energy consumption double control, power limit led to soda ash production decline, soda ash prices rose rapidly, into mid-October after the supply gradually relaxed, The price began to fall, influenced by the lower price of futures.

4. Fluorine chemical industry

The overall price increase of the fluorine chemical industry chain is low, and the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has support at the cost end due to the rise in the price of sulfuric acid, compared with all the prices in 2020, but the overall trend is stable. Refrigerant due to the downstream demand for white electricity is relatively weak, and because the third generation refrigerant reached the capacity quota base period time, the major manufacturers in the early expansion of production led to oversupply, the overall continuation of the low price trend in 2020, after September due to the decline in energy consumption dual control operating rate, and the demand side of the white electricity demand to stabilize, refrigerant prices into the rising channel. In the first half of the year, the price of fluorine resin was maintained at a high level driven by demand, but the subsequent cost support weakened, and the operating rate of downstream cable and small household appliance manufacturers declined, and the downstream procurement was depressed, resulting in a continued decline in prices in July-August, and since September, energy consumption dual control led to a decline in operating rates, market supply was reduced, and prices rose again.

5. Dyes

The dye industry showed a weak operation trend in 2021, mainly because the production demand of the textile industry continued to decline after the epidemic, but after September, due to the dual control of energy consumption in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the operating rate of dye enterprises was affected, and the cost of raw materials increased, and the price recovered, but it still did not reach the level of 2018.

6. Chemical fiber

The chemical fiber plate has shown a large differentiation, the price of spandex has risen significantly this year, mainly due to the increase in the market demand for elastic fabrics such as sportswear and underwear, and the rise in the price of PTMEG at the cost end also supports the price of spandex. The price of other sectors rose in a narrow range, but the subsequent upward trend fell back, mainly because the total demand of the downstream textile and clothing industry continued to be low.

7. Silicone

Silicone industry chain increased significantly in 2021, the silicone market from January to August slowly and steadily upward, mainly driven by the industry operating rate and downstream demand, DMC price from the beginning of the year about 20,000 yuan/ton rose to about 30,000 yuan/ton, after September by the impact of energy consumption double control, Yunnan and other places to limit the production capacity of raw metal silicon, raw material prices soared. The price of silicone middle and downstream products rose rapidly, as of October 15, 2021 DMC price 60,000 yuan/ton, entering November after the opening rate, the price returned to 30,000 yuan level.

8. Fertilizers and pesticides

Due to the rising prices of agricultural products, the increase of global planting area, the strong global demand for fertilizer, the rise in the prices of compound fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer, and China's phosphorus industry chain from 2016 to 2020 in a state of capacity contraction for five consecutive years, phosphate ore production continued to decline, phosphate fertilizer is the most important downstream demand for phosphate ore. Therefore, in 2020, the price of phosphate ore rose from 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfuric acid rose, as well as the demand for downstream fertilizers, and the prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate continued to increase. In terms of nitrogen fertilizer, urea is supported by demand and raw material coal and natural gas prices, and prices show an upward trend. In terms of potash, affected by the strong international demand for potash, the international price of potassium chloride continues to rise, and the domestic supply of potash fertilizer continues to be tight, and the domestic price of potassium chloride also shows an upward trend. Fertilizer prices are subject to policy control because of the national economy and people's livelihood, and the supply side is not greatly affected by power rationing, and fertilizers enter the off-season after entering September, so prices remain stable after September.

In terms of pesticides, the rising price of yellow phosphorus-phosphoric acid at the cost side supports the price of glyphosate. At the demand side, with the upgrading of the global food security strategy, the global demand for glyphosate continues to increase, and China's demand for glyphosate for self-use and export continues to increase. In addition, the rising price of agricultural products stimulates farmers' willingness to use pesticides. The rapid stretching of glyphosate price is mainly caused by the rapid rise in the price of yellow phosphorus, and the limited production of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan has driven the price of yellow phosphorus to more than 60,000 yuan/ton, affecting the downstream glyphosate operating rate.

9, rubber, plastic

In terms of plastics, although the demand for polyethylene is still strong, the price of more new production capacity has been adjusted in the first half of the year, and the price center under the price addition of oil and coal at the cost side is still higher than the same period last year. Polypropylene is not as good as polyethylene due to supply and demand, and the price trend is weak. After the production limit in September, the price of polyethylene and polypropylene has significantly increased. PA66 first quarter raw material adipdinitrile supply shortage, adiponic acid prices continue to rise, driven by the cost of rapid price increase, after the demand into the weak season prices have rebounded.

10. Polyurethane

MDI is subject to global pricing, and price rises and falls this year are mainly influenced by supply and demand. Take pure MDI as an example, the first quarter of this year rose better, MDI from 21900 yuan/ton the highest growth to 28750 yuan/ton, mainly due to foreign manufacturers production equipment force majeure and shutdown maintenance led to a decline in industry supply, MDI prices rose clearly, from mid-March began to increase market supply, but the demand gradually weakened. The price continued to adjust back, the lowest back to 193 million yuan/ton; After July, MDI inventory was at a historical low, the supply side was reduced, overseas equipment was shut down for maintenance, and the downstream demand for construction increased, and the price began to rebound, the highest rebound to 24,500 yuan/ton. After the epidemic, the downstream demand was repeatedly weak, the inventory continued to rise, and the price fell again. After entering September, due to the dual control of energy consumption, the operating rate was affected. Prices rebounded slightly. The price trend of aggregate MDI and TDI is similar to that of pure MDI.