More than 70% of chemical industry companies have achieved positive growth in operating profit in 2022

1. Comprehensive price index: The CCPI index of chemical products in the first three quarters reached a historical high

The performance of the chemical industry has increased significantly across the board, and its core factor is the rise in prices. First of all, look at the price of the chemical industry, the price of chemical products in 2021 showed a significant growth trend, China's chemical products Price index (CCPI) increased from 4153 points at the beginning of 2021 to 6388 points on October 14, 2021. By December 15, 2021, it had retreated to 5158 points, up 24% for the year. From the beginning of this year to the middle of March, the CCPI index experienced a continuous rising process. From mid-March to early July, the CCPI index continued to fluctuate around 5100 points. From July to August, the CCPI index stabilized around 5200 points. The CCPI began another rapid rise, from October to December, the CCPI index began to correction.

A rough analysis of the reasons can be found that the first half of the rise is driven by demand, and the second half of the rise is a contraction of supply. The price increase before March 2021 is mainly the continuation of the rising demand in 2020, and the vaccination rate in foreign countries continues to increase, the demand recovery is faster than the recovery of production, the increase in import orders in China is clear, the demand-driven chemical prices continue to rise, and the Delta strain from mid-March to July led to repeated outbreaks in some parts of the world. CCPI index turned into a volatile trend; However, after July, due to the impact of energy consumption dual control, some parts of China began to limit production and power, and in September, the power supply was more tight, leading to a serious shortage of products in energy-consuming industries, and the supply crunch pulled up product prices. After the release of electricity supply in October, the CCPI index began to decline to the level close to the beginning of the year.

2, chemical raw materials

Basic chemical raw materials in most of this year showed a significant rise, such as acetic acid rose 123%, pure benzene rose 98%, only ethanol, butadiene and other a few varieties of prices did not rise, showing strong resilience on the demand side, but from October there was a significant price correction.

3, chlor-alkali, titanium dioxide, soda ash

Titanium dioxide: Prices picked up in the first half of this year, the price of upstream titanium ore remains high, the completed area of real estate remains stable, and the recovery of the automotive industry, the demand side margin continues to be obvious, the inventory is obvious, at a historical low, and the release of new capacity takes time, from July to September the industry entered the traditional off-season, the price has been adjusted back. After September, demand entered the peak season and prices increased slightly.

Chlor-alkali: calcium carbide production capacity is affected by carbon neutrality and energy consumption dual control policy, calcium carbide inventory and supply continue to decline, driving up the price; Downstream PVC is driven by the global resumption of production and work, real estate completion area warming, film, pipe, profiles and other building materials demand warming, exports increased, superposition upstream calcium carbide prices rose, PVC prices have also increased significantly. Caustic soda prices rose slightly before August, mainly due to the downstream alumina and paper industry boom, driving caustic soda prices, later calcium carbide prices transmitted to caustic soda, and in the energy consumption dual control policy under the operating rate decline, the price began to rapidly pull up. In mid-October, the operating rate increased, and the price of the chlor-alkali industry chain began to adjust back.

Soda Ash: Soda ash prices have been in an upward trend this year, before September mainly due to the soda ash medium capacity increment is limited, photovoltaic glass production plan to bring the demand increment determination, push up the soda ash price, after September due to energy consumption double control, power limit led to soda ash production decline, soda ash prices rose rapidly, into mid-October after the supply gradually relaxed, The price began to fall, influenced by the lower price of futures.

4. Fluorine chemical industry

The overall price increase of the fluorine chemical industry chain is low, and the upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has support at the cost end due to the rise in the price of sulfuric acid, compared with all the prices in 2020, but the overall trend is stable. Refrigerant due to the downstream demand for white electricity is relatively weak, and because the third generation refrigerant reached the capacity quota base period time, the major manufacturers in the early expansion of production led to oversupply, the overall continuation of the low price trend in 2020, after September due to the decline in energy consumption dual control operating rate, and the demand side of the white electricity demand to stabilize, refrigerant prices into the rising channel. In the first half of the year, the price of fluorine resin was maintained at a high level driven by demand, but the subsequent cost support weakened, and the operating rate of downstream cable and small household appliance manufacturers declined, and the downstream procurement was depressed, resulting in a continued decline in prices in July-August, and since September, energy consumption dual control led to a decline in operating rates, market supply was reduced, and prices rose again.