What is the development logic of the global chemical industry after 100 years?

3. Globalization stage

From the 1960s to the 1970s, it was the beginning of the global modern chemical industry. At this stage, the global chemical industry competition is fierce, on the one hand, due to the deepening of the understanding of the global chemical industry, the improvement of chemical reaction raw materials has stimulated the fierce discussion and progress of chemical production process design; On the other hand, new technologies continue to emerge, which put forward new possibilities for the development of the current chemical industry.

In 1963, Kellogg Company of the United States designed and built the first set of 540 tons per day of synthetic ammonia single series equipment, which is a sign of large-scale chemical production equipment. During this time, the ethylene production scale has also expanded from the initial annual production capacity of 50,000 tons to about 680,000 tons. Ethylene industry is known as the key industry to determine the level of the chemical industry, the growth of ethylene scale, led to a series of supporting chemical scale growth.

FIG. 1 Construction stage of synthetic ammonia

Since the 1960s, the global electronics industry has set off a wave of development, large-scale integrated circuits and electronics industry rapid development, gave birth to the development of many fine chemicals and new materials industry, representative products are optical fiber, nylon, polyformaldehyde, polycarbonate, ABS resin, as well as the electronics industry needs related electronic chemicals. At this stage, demand drives the development of technology, resulting in numerous high-end new material products.

Gang head brother believes that the global chemical industry after hundreds of years, there have been countless influential events in the middle, the development logic of the global chemical industry in the past hundreds of years can be summarized in the following aspects:

First, consumption-driven upgrading is the embodiment of core competitiveness

The consumption-driven upgrading of the chemical industry has been the main development logic for the past several hundred years. From the perspective of the development history of the global chemical industry, every development process of the formalization, scale and refinement of the global chemical industry, and the logic of endogenous growth are all consumption-driven. For example, the increase in chemical production efficiency brought about by the Black Death in Europe in the 18th century was driven by consumption based on a large decrease in population. The development of the global chemical industry after World War II was based on the consumption-driven demand for materials for post-war reconstruction. Several of the post-twentieth century economic crises were based on consumption-driven shifts in capital from financial products to chemicals. The current consumption drive brought about by the upgrading of industrial products has driven the rapid development of the current chemical industry.

The development of the global chemical industry is based on the endogenous growth forces brought about by different modes of consumption, which are large and small, active and passive, positive and occasionally negative.

Second, the logic of the value, the track miracle, raw materials to ensure profits

Flathead brother believes that in the development model of the past hundreds of years, the chemical industry is to win by scale, and seize the global chemical industry market through the continuous expansion of scale advantages. Because the refinement rate of the chemical industry chain was not high at that time, there were not many product types, and the differentiated competition was not obvious. In this context, the global chemical industry competition, more in the competition for raw materials, who master raw materials, who has the dominant power in the global chemical industry.

It can be said that in the development history of the global chemical industry for hundreds of years, most of the time has been dominated by raw material competition, and it is also based on this logic, which has evolved into the current crude oil is the pricing benchmark of global commodities. In this context, the development of China's chemical industry is slower than that of the European and American chemical industries, in addition to historical reasons, China's unbalanced energy structure is also an important reason.

Third, a stable supply of raw materials and a large amount of capital investment in research and development is the key to ensure the rapid development of the chemical industry

According to Pingtou Brother observation, in the current global chemical industry, the chemical industry in Europe and the United States has a large scale and a high level of technology, which is directly related to their maturity of development, and also has a direct relationship with their raw material supply and a large amount of capital investment in research and development.

Basf, the world's largest chemical company, has sales of $93 billion in 2021, and it has invested 900 million euros in agricultural technology, accounting for 11% of the annual business revenue of the agricultural solutions division. Wanhua Chemical's investment in technology research and development in 2021 reached 3.168 billion yuan, accounting for 13% of the total profit of the year.