What is the development logic of the global chemical industry after 100 years?

China has become the world's largest chemical supply market and consumer market, which is inseparable from the globalization of the chemical industry. Although there has always been a wave of "anti-globalization" counter-attack, and even now it is intensifying, the globalization pattern of the chemical industry has been set, and the globalization layout of leading enterprises has been basically formed, Pingtou Brother believes that the current globalization trend of the chemical industry is difficult to shake.

Under this development trend, the consumer market driven by demographic dividend gradually has the influence of consumption, such as China and Southeast Asia, especially the former, and this influence is also driving its progress in the direction of technology. The technology-driven technology market is leading the upgrading of chemical technology, such as Europe and North America. The development characteristics of the global chemical industry are evolving into a unique industrial structure by virtue of their own advantages.

1) How has the global chemical industry developed?

2) What laws does the development of the global chemical industry follow?

3) What development trends and directions will the global chemical industry have in the future?

In the future, Pingtou Brother will launch the "Global Chemical Industry Development Analysis" and "China Chemical Industry Development Analysis" series of articles, aiming to show the development direction of the chemical industry through the macro perspective of the development of the global chemical industry, and offer suggestions for the high-quality development of China's chemical industry.

As of 2022, the global chemical industry has developed for hundreds of years, in this long time, the global chemical industry has experienced several ups and downs of the cycle, from the initial original form of chemical production mode, gradually evolved into the current refined, high-end production mode; From the initial single product production, it has gradually developed into a complex ecological model of tens of thousands of chemical products. From the early stage to serve a specific group of production mode, has developed into a global production mode. According to relevant statistics, the current global chemical sales have exceeded 5 trillion euros, is an important pillar industry for global economic development.

There have been many significant moments in the development of the global chemical industry for hundreds of years, and this article will review and refine the landmark events that have had a huge impact on the industry.

1. Embryonic stage

The global chemical industry originated from the mid-18th century to the 20th century, from the early alchemy to the formal chemical production, which is also a typical event in the global chemical industry. The lead chamber sulfuric acid plant established in Britain in the 1740s is known as the first truly large-scale chemical plant.

Figure 1 The earliest chemical plants in the world

Later, based on the development of the textile industry, natural dyes can no longer cope with the growth of demand for dyes, began to appear organic dye production factories, in Europe, North America and Asia and other regions appeared a large number of dye processing plants.

In addition, with the development of iron and steel industry and coking industry, the use of by-product coal tar has also promoted the chemical industry of separating aromatics from coal tar. In 1856, the British W.H. Perkin synthesized aniline purple dye from aniline. After analysis, the structure of natural alizarin was determined to be dihydroxyanthraquinone, and the anthracene in coal tar was used as raw material. After oxidation, substitution, hydrolysis, rearrangement and other reactions, the product was imitated exactly the same as that of natural alizarin.

The development of the coal tar industry also promoted the development of the pharmaceutical industry at that time.

2. Scale stage

In 1920, the United States produced isopropyl alcohol from propylene, which was the starting point of large-scale petrochemical development. In 1939, the Standard Oil Company of the United States developed the hydrocatalytic reforming process, which became an important source of aromatics. In 1941, the United States built the first set of pipe furnace cracking to produce ethylene with refinery gas as raw material, which became the key to the downstream extension of the chemical industry chain.

At the same time, Japan, Western Europe and other regions also use crude oil as a raw material for basic chemical industry production. In the 1980s, more than 90% of organic chemical products, from the petrochemical industry, such as vinyl chloride, acrylonitrile, such as calcium carbide acetylene as raw materials of chemical products, have gradually turned to petroleum as raw materials production.

At this stage, the landmark chemical events are: in 1937, the German Farben company successfully developed styrene butadiene rubber; 1937 American W.H. Carothers successfully synthesized nylon 66; 1939 High voltage polyethylene used in submarine cables and radar; The development of low pressure polyethylene isotactic polypropylene was successful. In 1951, the United States cracked natural gas as raw materials to obtain carbon monoxide and hydrogen, which is the beginning of the development of global carbon chemistry, and also the chemical industry gradually attached importance to the beginning of low-carbon science.

3. Globalization stage

From the 1960s to the 1970s, it was the beginning of the global modern chemical industry. At this stage, the global chemical industry competition is fierce, on the one hand, due to the deepening of the understanding of the global chemical industry, the improvement of chemical reaction raw materials has stimulated the fierce discussion and progress of chemical production process design; On the other hand, new technologies continue to emerge, which put forward new possibilities for the development of the current chemical industry.

In 1963, Kellogg Company of the United States designed and built the first set of 540 tons per day of synthetic ammonia single series equipment, which is a sign of large-scale chemical production equipment. During this time, the ethylene production scale has also expanded from the initial annual production capacity of 50,000 tons to about 680,000 tons. Ethylene industry is known as the key industry to determine the level of the chemical industry, the growth of ethylene scale, led to a series of supporting chemical scale growth.

FIG. 1 Construction stage of synthetic ammonia

Since the 1960s, the global electronics industry has set off a wave of development, large-scale integrated circuits and electronics industry rapid development, gave birth to the development of many fine chemicals and new materials industry, representative products are optical fiber, nylon, polyformaldehyde, polycarbonate, ABS resin, as well as the electronics industry needs related electronic chemicals. At this stage, demand drives the development of technology, resulting in numerous high-end new material products.

Gang head brother believes that the global chemical industry after hundreds of years, there have been countless influential events in the middle, the development logic of the global chemical industry in the past hundreds of years can be summarized in the following aspects:

First, consumption-driven upgrading is the embodiment of core competitiveness

The consumption-driven upgrading of the chemical industry has been the main development logic for the past several hundred years. From the perspective of the development history of the global chemical industry, every development process of the formalization, scale and refinement of the global chemical industry, and the logic of endogenous growth are all consumption-driven. For example, the increase in chemical production efficiency brought about by the Black Death in Europe in the 18th century was driven by consumption based on a large decrease in population. The development of the global chemical industry after World War II was based on the consumption-driven demand for materials for post-war reconstruction. Several of the post-twentieth century economic crises were based on consumption-driven shifts in capital from financial products to chemicals. The current consumption drive brought about by the upgrading of industrial products has driven the rapid development of the current chemical industry.

The development of the global chemical industry is based on the endogenous growth forces brought about by different modes of consumption, which are large and small, active and passive, positive and occasionally negative.

Second, the logic of the value, the track miracle, raw materials to ensure profits

Flathead brother believes that in the development model of the past hundreds of years, the chemical industry is to win by scale, and seize the global chemical industry market through the continuous expansion of scale advantages. Because the refinement rate of the chemical industry chain was not high at that time, there were not many product types, and the differentiated competition was not obvious. In this context, the global chemical industry competition, more in the competition for raw materials, who master raw materials, who has the dominant power in the global chemical industry.

It can be said that in the development history of the global chemical industry for hundreds of years, most of the time has been dominated by raw material competition, and it is also based on this logic, which has evolved into the current crude oil is the pricing benchmark of global commodities. In this context, the development of China's chemical industry is slower than that of the European and American chemical industries, in addition to historical reasons, China's unbalanced energy structure is also an important reason.

Third, a stable supply of raw materials and a large amount of capital investment in research and development is the key to ensure the rapid development of the chemical industry

According to Pingtou Brother observation, in the current global chemical industry, the chemical industry in Europe and the United States has a large scale and a high level of technology, which is directly related to their maturity of development, and also has a direct relationship with their raw material supply and a large amount of capital investment in research and development.

Basf, the world's largest chemical company, has sales of $93 billion in 2021, and it has invested 900 million euros in agricultural technology, accounting for 11% of the annual business revenue of the agricultural solutions division. Wanhua Chemical's investment in technology research and development in 2021 reached 3.168 billion yuan, accounting for 13% of the total profit of the year.

From a rough point of view, the international giant companies that have emerged in the global chemical industry are all supported by a large number of high-quality technology research and development, and have developed rapidly on the premise of stable raw material supply.