Downstream demand recovery, chemical fiber industry ushered in a cycle reversal

The epidemic situation has become normal, and the prosperity of the chemical fiber industry has rebounded. At the end of 2019, the new production capacity of chemical fiber was basically completed, and the stock of chemical fiber was high due to the impact of the epidemic. The average inventory of chemical fiber in 2019-2020 has reached a historical high, and the industry's prosperity is depressed. At the beginning of 2020, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, domestic population migration was blocked, the operating rate of chemical fiber enterprises fell sharply, and the inventory of finished products was once high. 2020Q2 The domestic epidemic gradually stabilized, overseas textile and garment knitting demand picked up, textile and garment orders returned to domestic enterprises, chemical fiber enterprises significantly destocking, chemical fiber inventory at the end of 2020 has been at a low level, with downstream demand picking up, industry replenishment demand is strong.

1.2, downstream demand recovery, chemical fiber industry recovery

The export of downstream textile products increased significantly, which led to the recovery of the chemical fiber industry. In March 2020, the delivery value of chemical fiber outbound was 5.28 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year. Since March 2020, the overseas epidemic has intensified, a large number of textile and knitting orders have been transferred to the domestic market, the downstream textile and clothing exports of the industry have increased significantly, and the delivery value of chemical fiber exports has continued to rebound since the second quarter of 20 years.

In the second quarter, the operating rate of domestic chemical fiber enterprises increased rapidly. Affected by the epidemic in the beginning of 20 years, domestic enterprises are generally in a state of shutdown and production, the capacity utilization rate of chemical fiber manufacturing industry hit a new low of nearly 5 years in March, and the inventory of finished products in the chemical fiber industry was high. Since the second quarter of 2020, domestic enterprises have generally resumed production, with the recovery of overseas demand, good orders, and the operating rate of the chemical fiber industry has climbed rapidly.

The export demand for textile products has increased significantly, becoming the main force for the recovery of the chemical fiber industry. The epidemic abroad has led to the transfer of a large number of textile and garment processing orders to China, and the export of chemical fiber has declined year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for foreign epidemic prevention materials has increased sharply, and the export amount of textile and clothing in 2020 has reached a historic high of $31.29 billion, and the demand for textile and clothing continues to increase during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Among them, the cumulative equivalent ratio of textile yarns, textiles and products exports increased from -19.9% in February to 33.7% in September, and began to decline slightly in October, but still maintained a high level.

After the downstream demand picked up, the domestic loom operating rate increased significantly, and the textile and clothing trading volume continued to improve. In the first quarter of 2020, under the impact of the epidemic, domestic enterprises stopped production, and the downstream loom operating rate of polyester filament was only 7%, a record low, and the trading volume of the textile city fell to 1.16 million meters in the same period, a decrease of 65%. In the second quarter, the domestic epidemic prevention and control was effective, and enterprises gradually resumed work and production, while the deterioration of the foreign epidemic made the demand for protective materials break out, at the same time, affected by the supply limitation of the epidemic abroad, a large number of orders were transferred to the domestic, the domestic loom operating rate has increased rapidly since the second quarter, and the volume of textile city has rebounded significantly. Spinning and weaving enterprises are expected to resume work better than the same period in previous years, and the tight container problems that continued to restrict downstream and terminal exports in the early stage began to improve from the end of January 2021, providing a foundation for the execution of foreign trade orders in the later stage, and the sustained growth of the demand side has been strongly guaranteed.

Since the second quarter of 2020, retail sales of textile and clothing have rebounded rapidly year-on-year. In terms of domestic downstream textile and garment demand, the retail situation in the first quarter of 2020 was seriously affected by the epidemic, with a cumulative average decline of 30.7% year-on-year, downstream demand gradually recovered in the second and third quarters, and demand increased significantly in the fourth quarter. In 2020, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing, shoes, hats and needles, and textile products rebounded from -30.9% in February to -6.6% in December.