Downstream demand recovery, chemical fiber industry ushered in a cycle reversal

Industry prosperity recovery, chemical fiber industry valuation is expected to gradually repair. In the first quarter of 2020, the valuation of the chemical fiber industry is still at a historical low, with the gradual recovery of downstream demand for chemical fiber in the second quarter, the industry boom is picking up, the PPI of the chemical fiber manufacturing industry has improved significantly year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, and the industrial added value of the chemical fiber manufacturing industry has shown a growth trend. Under the background of high certainty of performance growth in the past 21 years, the market attention of the chemical fiber industry has increased, and the industry valuation has entered the continuous repair channel.

2, polyester filament demand bottomed out and rebounded, and the industry ushered in a turning point

2.1. Basic introduction of polyester filament

Polyester filament is made of polyester (namely polyethylene terephthalate, referred to as PET) by spinning and finishing the length of more than kilometers of fiber. Polyester, commonly known as "polyester", is made from refined terephthalic acid (PTA) or dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) and ethylene glycol (MEG) as raw materials by esterification or transesterification and polycondensation. Polyester filament has the advantages of high strength, good crease recovery, good wear resistance, and not easy to stain, and is widely used in various clothing and decorative materials.

Polyester filament is located in the middle and lower reaches of the entire industrial chain. Upstream for the petrochemical industry, the main production of PX, ethylene, naphtha and other chemical products; The middle reaches is the chemical fiber manufacturing industry, mainly producing PTA, MEG, PET, polyester film, polyester fiber, polyester chip, etc. Downstream mainly related to polyester filament and staple fiber and its spinning clothing, automotive applications. According to the difference of production process and performance, polyester filament can be divided into three categories: primary silk, stretched silk and deformed silk. Primary silk mainly includes POY (pre-oriented silk); The drawing filament mainly includes FDY (full drawing deformed filament); The textured silk mainly includes DTY (stretched textured silk) and other products, which are mainly used in the civil textile and textile garment industry.

The polyester filament industry has developed rapidly and has a variety of production processes. According to the spinning speed, polyester filament can be divided into conventional spinning process, medium-speed spinning process and high-speed spinning process. According to polyester raw materials can be divided into melt direct spinning and slice spinning; According to the process flow, it can be divided into three steps, two steps and one step. With the development of China's polyester filament industry, the small production capacity has been gradually eliminated, the production scale of the filament device has been upgraded, the leading enterprises in the industry have a significant advantage, and China's polyester filament has also achieved effective results in the production process development.

2.2, downstream demand gradually recovered, filament price spread continued to expand

The downstream application of polyester filament is mainly divided into three areas: industry, home textiles and textile and apparel, 2016-2020 polyester filament in the textile and apparel industry consumption of 53.95 million tons, accounting for 52% of the total downstream consumption, the textile and apparel industry demand changes have a significant impact on the demand pattern of polyester filament industry.

Domestic filament downstream recovery, overseas textile demand recovery. The demand terminal of China's textile and garment industry is mainly in the country, the epidemic attack in early 2020 led to a reduction in the demand for textile and garment and other daily necessities, a large number of textile and garment retail stores were closed, and the cumulative retail sales of daily necessities in February were negative for the first time in nearly seven years, and the cumulative export amount of textiles and kimono was reduced by 19% and 20% respectively. Affected by the textile and clothing industry, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament in January and February was only 19%. Since the second quarter, the domestic epidemic has been brought under control, and people's living consumption has gradually returned to normal. With the deterioration of the epidemic situation abroad, the demand for textile and clothing products, especially epidemic prevention materials, has increased sharply. Due to the shutdown of overseas factories due to the epidemic, a large number of foreign textile and clothing orders transferred to domestic enterprises, domestic downstream textile and clothing factories in strict observance of the epidemic prevention policy under the premise, the operating rate increased from 5% in early February to 65% in early March, and continued to maintain an upward trend, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament increased to 350% on November 10. Since the third quarter, the global epidemic has been under certain control, textile and clothing factories have resumed work and production, and China's polyester filament exports have continued to increase, gradually increasing from -32% in January to 1.6% in December. In 2020, the apparent consumption of polyester filament in China will be 30.47 million tons, an increase of 1.6%. Exports were 2.21 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year. Although the new coronavirus vaccine has been successfully developed and gradually put into use, it still takes a long time for the vaccine to reach global coverage, and the world will enter a normal situation of epidemic prevention and control in the next few years, and the steady growth of textile demand will drive the polyester filament industry to continue to improve.