The global shipbuilding pattern is concentrated, and the benefits of China's leading ships are remarkable

Core views: Long construction cycle, expansion difficulties make the industry continue to focus on leading enterprises, this round of shipbuilding upward cycle China is expected to continue the previous round of South Korea, leading the development of the global shipbuilding industry. In 2022, China's three major shipbuilding indicators will occupy about 50% of the global market share, and Chinese ships will account for about 20% of China's market share and about 10% of the global market share. On the whole, the company's income side, rising demand superimposed new shipbuilding prices, civil ship construction and repair is expected to achieve volume and price rise; At the cost end, the price of shipbuilding board has fluctuated downward since 2H21, and the company's cost pressure has weakened, and its profitability is expected to improve. In addition, the company actively distributes high-value ship types such as LNG and large cruise ships, which is expected to continue to promote the upgrading of the company's product structure and enhance the company's core competitiveness.

1. Shipbuilding capacity is gradually cleared, and the Chinese market leads the world

The decade of downturn has accelerated the consolidation of shipyards around the world, with the number of active shipyards gradually decreasing and capacity gradually being cleared. Since 2008, the Marine market has entered a downturn, and the number of active shipyards worldwide has decreased, according to Clarksons data, the number of active shipyards worldwide has dropped from 1,014 in 2008 to 373 in 2022. At the same time, the consolidation of shipyards around the world is accelerating to absorb excess capacity. For example, in 2016, COSCO Shipping merged its subordinate shipyards to set up COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., LTD., in 2017, China Merchants and SinoOverseas merged their subordinate shipyards, in 2019, China North-South Shipbuilding merged, Japan United Shipbuilding and Imaji Shipbuilding merged to set up a new company "Japan Shipbuilding", and in 2021, Korea Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine restructuring. According to Clarksons data, as of 2M23, the global Top2 shipbuilding group to undertake orders accounted for 25% of the world's orders, Top5 shipbuilding group accounted for 50% of the world's orders, and Top12 shipbuilding group accounted for 75% of the world's orders.

At present, the competition pattern of the global shipbuilding industry presents the form of "three pillars" between China, Japan and South Korea, and China's shipbuilding strength plays a pivotal role. In recent years, China, Japan and South Korea have accounted for more than 90% of shipbuilding completions. Among them, in 2022, China ranked first in the world in the three major indicators of shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders, accounting for about 50% of the world's share. According to Clarksons data and China Shipbuilding Industry Association data show that in 2022, China's new orders, orders in hand and shipbuilding completions in 10,000 DWT accounted for 55.2%, 47.3% and 49.0% of the global total, respectively. From the historical data, the global new orders as a whole show a trend of substantial growth in China and gradual contraction in Japan.

From the point of view of the single ship, the three countries have their own strengths. South Korea's overall industrial concentration is higher, the local ship distribution product loading rate is higher, the product structure is mainly high-end ship types, China, Japan to the traditional three ship types. Chinese shipping enterprises take bulk carriers, container ships, chemical tankers, refined oil tankers, general cargo ships and tugs as the main single ship types, the ship type changes are not obvious, the average tonnage has increased to a certain extent, and the construction capacity of large ships such as the three main ship types has been greatly improved, but the current LNG, LPG and other high-end ship types are still weak. The single ship type of Japanese ship enterprise is mainly bulk carrier, liquid carrier and general cargo ship, and passenger roll ship is also the focus of its order. In recent years, Japanese shipping companies have adjusted their order acquisition strategy, trying to recover their market share in the container ship field by receiving orders from Taiwan shipowners and domestic shipowners. In addition, Japanese shipping companies have twice tried to build luxury cruise ships, but both ended in failure. South Korea's high value-added ship types account for a relatively high proportion of new ship orders in the field of civil ships and offshore industry have a strong ability to receive orders, in the three main ship types, its container ships and oil tankers receive orders much higher than bulk carriers. South Korean shipping companies attach great importance to the management and maintenance of customer relations, and pay special attention to the application of new technologies such as environmental protection and energy saving on liquid cargo ships. In the field of offshore engineering, high value-added offshore equipment such as FLNG ships is mostly monopolized by South Korean shipping companies.