Challenges and countermeasures of high-quality development of nuclear energy under the background of "dual carbon"

Nuclear energy has the characteristics of clean and low carbon, stable output, low marginal cost, and the development of coastal nuclear power deployment and China's economic layout in depth, is the energy supply side, especially the new non-fossil energy is the most expected to take into account the "low carbon, economic, security" triangle of energy forms, can replace fossil energy through large-scale development, And form strong complementary development with new energy. This paper takes the "dual carbon" goal (carbon peak, carbon neutral) and "two constructs" (building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, building a new power system with new energy as the main body) as the criterion, and summarizes the challenges and countermeasures of nuclear energy under the future "dual carbon" strategic goal, in order to promote the high-quality development of nuclear energy in the future.

I. Introduction

 The strategic goal reflects China's firm determination to work with the world to actively respond to the great challenge of global climate change, and demonstrates China's responsibility as a major country in building a community with a shared future for mankind. All these have injected strong confidence in global green development and coordinated win-win results after the COVID-19 epidemic. It has been pointed out that the smooth realization of China's "dual carbon" strategic goal will effectively promote the change of the global temperature rise trend, making the global temperature lower than expected by 0.3℃ or even higher [1].

Since entering the 21st century, China's economy has developed rapidly, and China's carbon emissions have also risen rapidly. Relevant research data [2] show that China's carbon emissions in 2019 are about 11.5 billion tons, accounting for about 30% of the global total emissions, ranking first in the world, and about 168% higher than China's carbon emissions in 2000.

At present, relevant research fields in China have generally reached a certain consensus on the carbon emission limit in the context of "carbon neutrality" in 2060 [3]. According to the prediction of relevant research institutions [2], if China wants to achieve the emission reduction target under the benchmark "1.5℃ scenario", the allowable carbon emission value after 2050 is only 15% to 25% of the current carbon emission value, even under the "second best" and feasible backup "2℃ scenario", the allowable carbon emission value is only 40% to 50% of the current carbon emission value. And lower than 2000 China's carbon emissions. At present, China's economy is still in the stage of medium-high speed and high-quality development, energy consumption is still growing, carbon emissions are likely to increase, and we need to experience "carbon peak" before 2030 in order to move towards "carbon neutrality" in 2060. Compared with developed countries, China's "carbon peak" to "carbon neutral" interval is only 30 years, and the intensity and difficulty of emission reduction is second to none in the world.

The energy industry is the first to achieve the strategic goal of "dual carbon". According to statistics, China's energy supply side carbon emissions in 2019 were about 4.6 billion tons, accounting for about 40%; The carbon emissions of energy consumption (only in the industrial sector) are about 3.3 billion tons, accounting for about 30%, and the total contribution has reached 70%, which is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions in China [3]. To build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, build a new power system with new energy as the main body, and realize the transformation and development of the energy industry "low carbon" or even "zero carbon" is an important guarantee and premise for China to achieve the "double carbon" strategic goal, and is also a major requirement and long-term research direction for the future energy industry to adapt to the high-quality development goals of our country in the new era.

Second, nuclear energy is a strategic guarantee for the overall development of energy and electricity in China

In recent years, with the steady implementation of the "two construction", China's renewable energy such as wind and solar energy have become the fastest growing energy sources. In 2020, China's wind power installed capacity of about 282 million kilowatts, solar power installed capacity of about 253 million kilowatts, an increase of about 1.2 times and 4.8 times compared with 2015; It is expected that in 2025, 2030, 2035, China's wind power installed capacity is expected to reach 400 million, 600 million, 1 billion kilowatts, solar power installed capacity is expected to reach 500 million, 900 million, 1.5 billion kilowatts [3][5].

However, the practice and research results of energy and power development in the past decades all over the world show that the low-carbon energy structure is a long, complex and tortuous process. The inherent characteristics of renewable energy such as low energy density and unstable power generation make it still face some realistic bottlenecks or problems that cannot be avoided in a short period of time under large-scale development. For example, a large number of controllable power sources need to be deeply adjusted during the new energy period to ensure consumption, and when special weather such as hot waves and cold waves require stable power supply, the output often declines, and even an extreme situation such as the short-term minimum output of wind power in the Northeast power grid on July 28, 2021, is less than one-thousandth of the installed wind power in the network.