Grasp the industry trend, layout of new carbon fiber materials

Under the dual-carbon strategy, a number of new energy tracks continue to drive the growth of carbon fiber demand

Under the wave of energy change, the photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and hydrogen fuel cells are also preparing for development, and these emerging industries are also driving the substantial expansion of carbon fiber demand. Photovoltaic field: Carbon fiber is suitable for single crystal furnace thermal field with its heat resistance characteristics. As a consumable, carbon fiber crucible has the advantages of low energy consumption and long life compared with graphite crucible, and it is more suitable for carbon fiber crucible in large-size silicon wafers. In 2021, the global carbon fiber demand for carbon carbon thermal field is 0.85 million tons. With reference to the installed PV capacity of 133GW in 2021, according to the forecast of the new team of United Power, by 2030, the global PV installed capacity of 435GW corresponds to the carbon carbon thermal field carbon fiber demand of about 26,000 tons.

Hydrogen energy field: carbon fiber is the ideal material for high-pressure hydrogen cylinders, China gives strong support to the hydrogen energy industry, according to the planning of the first-line city cluster (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou area) in 2025 hydrogen vehicles are expected to reach about 100,000. In 2021, the global sales volume of hydrogen vehicles is 16,300 units, and we calculate according to the White Paper on China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell Industry (2019 edition), assuming that 50,000 hydrogen vehicles will be shipped globally in 2025 and 1 million hydrogen vehicles will be shipped in 2030. If measured according to the heavy truck, the bicycle needs 10 hydrogen cylinders, and the mainstream hydrogen cylinder of 35KPa requires about 40 kg of carbon fiber. In 2021, the global pressure vessel carbon fiber market is 11,000 tons, according to our calculation, the demand for hydrogen vehicles is about 2,000 tons, and other traditional fields are 9,000 tons. We estimate that by 2030, the global shipment of 1 million hydrogen vehicles will correspond to 134,000 tons of pressure vessel carbon fiber market. It has become the first major carbon fiber application field after wind power blades. In summary, according to our calculation, benefiting from the growth of the new energy industry, the global market demand for carbon fiber will increase to 382,000 tons by 2030, compared with 2020, a 10-year increase of 2.5 times, CAGR=13.5%.

2.3. China's civil carbon fiber industry chain is initially opened, and it is expected to achieve corner overtaking in the future

From the perspective of development history, China's carbon fiber industry lags behind the United States and Japan. In terms of time line, among them, the United States is the original country, but carbon fiber from invention to application to the realization of economic value has gone through a bumpy process of 20 to 30 years; Due to the lifetime employment of employees in Japan, the short-term performance pressure of listed companies is relatively small, so even in the carbon fiber industry, the long research and development of losses to maturity has been accumulating, and finally ushered in the 1980s carbon fiber in the United States Boeing aircraft to achieve large-scale application. Look at the development of carbon fiber in China, the 1960s began to research and development, the beginning of the 21st century to achieve a breakthrough in the process, from the product application point of view is also from the lowest requirements of the sports equipment field, further to wind power blades, thermal fields, automobiles and other higher requirements of the field penetration, but the civil aviation field is still difficult to overtake, As military aviation carbon fiber materials are banned from export abroad, domestic manufacturers represented by Zhongjian Technology and Guangwei Composites are also constantly breaking through high-end military grades, and developing faster than civil aviation.

China has an industrial advantage in the new energy track. Compared with the traditional industry such as automobiles, aviation and other industries already behind the situation, our country in the field of energy transition of historical baggage light, as early as possible layout, and vigorously develop, in a certain sense can be considered to be standing in the same starting line or leading pattern with international counterparts. Especially in 2021, China clearly put forward the "double carbon" goal under the background, wind power, electric vehicles, hydrogen energy, photovoltaic and other fields in China is ushered in the development window period, China's industries are currently in the leading position of the global industrial chain, the future of China's manufacturing industry may rely on new energy industry to achieve the global industrial division of labor on the corner overtaking. At present, we believe that the domestic carbon fiber industry chain is basically complete, and we mainly consider three aspects: 1) the localization rate of equipment exceeds 90% (Jinggong technology large wire tow production line data); 2) T700 and below the large tow filament and carbon filament fully realize the domestic (performance is enough to meet industrial needs); 3) Both wet and dry spray wet spinning processes have been mastered, and the spinning speed has been continuously improved.