Grasp the industry trend, layout of new carbon fiber materials

China's carbon fiber market operating rate is low, high dependence on foreign countries. From the data of 2021, China's total demand for carbon fiber is about 62,400 tons, and it has achieved a high growth of 27.7% under the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic. Because more domestic carbon fiber enterprises have not achieved a breakthrough in key technologies, the production line has the problem of operation and product quality instability, the nominal production capacity of 63,400 tons, the actual supply of 29,300 tons, the overall operating rate of 46.2%, showing a situation of production capacity without output. At the same time, China's carbon fiber has also maintained a high degree of foreign dependence, in 2020, China's carbon fiber imports of 33,000 tons, accounting for about 53% of the total demand, an increase of 9.2%.

Due to the wide application in the field of national defense and military industry, carbon fiber materials have become the material basis and technology guide for the development of high and new technology, national defense cutting-edge technology and transformation of traditional industries in the world, and are one of the most important development directions in China's strategic emerging industries. In the past more than half a century, China's main development of small wire bundles of carbon fibers used in the military field, breaking the key links of key military materials, with the increase in the penetration rate of carbon fiber in the civilian field, especially the emerging industries represented by new energy widely used carbon fiber materials, civil carbon fiber has become an opportunity for China's carbon fiber industry to achieve leap-forward development.

2.2. The global new energy is advancing rapidly, opening up the market space of large tow carbon fiber

With the landing of the "double carbon" policy, the development of the domestic carbon fiber industry ushered in a golden moment. Wind power, electric vehicles, hydrogen energy, photovoltaic and other fields are all industries in which China has comparative advantages and are also key industries supported by the state. The rapid growth of carbon fiber demand in related fields and the large market capacity can not only pull the demand for carbon fiber, but also better solve the serialization, differentiation and extension of the development of carbon fiber industry.

The installed capacity of wind power and the large size of fan blades drive the demand for carbon fiber

During the global "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the compound growth rate of wind power installed capacity exceeded 25%. After experiencing the rush to install in 2020, the wind power industry still maintains a high prosperity in 2021 under the background of the national carbon neutral policy, and the central subsidy will fully decline in 2022. According to the expectation of the new team of United Power, the large-scale offshore wind power installed capacity and the demand for onshore wind power after the cost reduction will continue to support the growth of new installed capacity. In 2025, the global installed capacity of wind power will reach 94GW, and China will reach 45GW, accounting for 47% of the global new installed capacity. Carbon fiber blades are cost-effective in large scale blades. When the fan becomes larger, the all-FRP blade can no longer meet the requirements of large and lightweight blades, and the carbon fiber material with better density and rigidity has become a more ideal choice. Under the premise of stiffness and strength, carbon fiber is more than 30% lighter than FRP blades. At present, the straight diameter of the wind wheel has exceeded 120m, and the blade weight has reached 18 tons. Carbon fiber blades improve power generation efficiency and reduce blade cost while reducing weight, especially with the continuous decline of the price tag in wind power, carbon fiber blades have prominent cost-effective advantages in large-size blades.

The Vestas blade carbon beam patent has expired, and the permeability of large tow carbon fiber in wind power blades is expected to be greatly improved. Vestas, a global wind power giant, has achieved the large-scale application of carbon fiber in fan blades, and other international giants, Siemens - Gamesa, GE-LM, Nordex, etc., have adopted carbon fiber pultrach plate manufacturing and testing prototypes in new models. Domestic wind power enterprises have not yet formed the large-scale mass production of carbon fiber blades, more in the prototype verification stage, July 19, 2022 Vestas blade carbon beam patent expired, is expected to bring step growth for the domestic leaf carbon fiber market.

According to Lin Gang's "2021 Global Carbon Fiber Industry Report" data, the global demand for wind power blade carbon fiber in 2021 is 33,000 tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, and the proportion of demand has increased to 28%. In 2020, the demand for carbon fiber in the domestic wind power blade field is 22,500 tons, an increase of 10%, accounting for 36.1% of the total domestic demand. Carbon fiber for wind power blades are mainly T300 grade 24K, 48K, 50K and other products at home and abroad. Overseas are mainly Toray's Zortec (United States + Mexico + Hungary), Japan's Mitsubishi, Germany's Sigli and Formosa Plastics, Turkey Dowaksa, domestic Jilin Carbon Valley + Baojing products can basically meet the needs of downstream customers. We expect that by 2030, the global demand for carbon fiber in wind power blades will form a 100,000 ton market, three times the current wind power blade market, with a CAGR of about 13%.