Uncertain 2023, how should food and beverage firmly move forward?

What food and drink will we need in 2023?

COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Fed's interest rate hike, the stock market's decline... 2022, full of uncertainty, is an exceptionally difficult year for all walks of life.

If the time dimension is enlarged and viewed from a more macro perspective, 2022 is only the next insignificant downward cycle in the ongoing economic fluctuations in the development of human society.

However, the small pains in this historical flood are projected to the present, enough to make the industry dig the heart, let alone fall on everyone's head, and what a heavy mountain it will be.

Into 2023, the three-year suspension of social life has been restarted, and the "recovery" of economic and social has become the keyword of this year. Among them, consumption is not only the main driving force of economic growth, but also an important force point to promote the current economic operation to return to the right track.

However, 2022 has passed, but uncertainty continues and will gradually become the new normal.

What will happen to the consumer market in this turbulent and unknown environment?

Among them, is the food and beverage track still available?

And how to push forward, explore new life?

The food and beverage industry will unleash more consumer demand

Walter, American scholar. In his book The Unequal Society, Scheidel argues that mass mobilization for war, transformative revolutions, state failure, and deadly infectious diseases can ameliorate socioeconomic inequality, called the four Horsemen of corrective power.

On January 10, 2023, according to data released by the Central bank, RMB deposits increased by 26.26 trillion yuan in 2022, an increase of 6.59 trillion yuan year-on-year, hitting a record high. Among them, household deposits increased by 17.84 trillion yuan, a substantial increase of 7.94 trillion yuan compared with household savings deposits in 2021.

In this regard, many experts in the industry are optimistic that this excess savings, which is significantly higher than in previous years, is likely to become a "excess consumption" to stimulate domestic demand and promote economic revitalization.

But in fact, most of the current savings come from high-income groups, and the middle and low-income groups that can really achieve a big rebound in consumption not only have no excess income, but a large part of the population is even constantly consuming the excess savings before the epidemic.

As we all know, high-income groups have a strong ability to resist risks, their consumption behavior is little affected by the environment, and their marginal propensity to consume is low, and their support for the entire consumption market is limited.

As for low - and middle-income people, after 22 years of salary cuts, layoffs, epidemics and other magical encounters, 23 years is likely to spend more money on risk defense, rather than consumption.

In addition, real estate investment confidence is declining, financial products ushered in a wave of redemption, all signs show that even if the epidemic zero policy is waved away, the economic development situation is still unpredictable.

In 2023, when the economy is waiting to explode, perhaps the pandemic will not bring us the fairness described in the Unequal Society, but instead deepen the existing economic divide. In the future, we may not be greeted by the long-awaited "V" recovery, but the crueler "K" recovery.

Perhaps the overall environment may not be as optimistic as some people expect, but "food for the people", as a major existence of the food industry, with its "fundamental nature of human survival", is expected to remain strong in 2023.

In addition, although the New Year has come, the health threat of the epidemic has not really disappeared, and the high-intensity life continues, and the long-term accumulation of mental internal friction makes people need to find an emotional outlet, and consumption is a perfect carrier.

At present, people may be more cautious about high consumption, but products such as food and beverages that are approachable but can give high emotional value through the five senses are expected to form a strong rebound in the market.

In addition, at the end of 2022, with the release of policies such as the Notice on Further Optimizing the Implementation of the Novel Coronavirus Prevention and Control Measures and the overall Plan for the Implementation of the "Class B and B Tube" for the novel coronavirus infection, the epidemic prevention and control measures will be gradually optimized, the fundamentals of the food and beverage industry will be gradually bottomed, and the consumption scene will be gradually repaired, which will drive the food and beverage industry to recover. Superposition industry upstream raw material prices fall, will drive 2023 industry profit release, valuation increase.

At the same time, at the national and government level, in order to stimulate domestic demand for the food and beverage industry has also given considerable support policies. In the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) issued by The State Council, the content of food and beverage is mainly reflected in: continue to improve traditional consumption and improve the basic consumption quality such as food and clothing. We will increase the supply of high-quality basic consumer goods, and promote the same line, same standard and same quality of domestic and export products. Promote healthy diet structure, increase the supply of healthy and nutritious agricultural products and food, and promote the healthy development of the catering industry.