In the next five years, global renewable energy will usher in a period of rapid growth



Renewable energy will become the largest source of electricity by the beginning of 2025

The report is the IEA's first comprehensive assessment of global renewable energy trends since the conclusion of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28). According to the report, 510 GW of new renewable energy capacity will be installed globally in 2023. Under existing policy and market conditions, global installed renewable energy capacity is expected to reach 7,300 GW between 2023 and 2028. By the beginning of 2025, renewable energy will become the world's most dominant source of electricity.

The report predicts that wind and solar power will account for 95% of new renewable power generation over the next five years. By 2024, wind and solar combined will generate more electricity than hydropower; Wind and solar power will overtake nuclear power in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The share of wind and solar power generation will double by 2028, to a combined 25 percent.

Global biofuels have also ushered in a golden period of development. In 2023, biofuels are gradually promoted in the aviation sector and begin to replace more highly polluting fuels. In Brazil, for example, biofuel capacity growth in 2023 is 30% faster than the average over the past five years.

The International Energy Agency believes that governments' increasing emphasis on providing affordable, safe and low-emission energy supplies and stronger policy guarantees are the main drivers for the renewable energy industry to achieve milestone development.

More policy and financing support is needed to achieve the growth target

"While the world is on track to meet the COP28 target of tripling global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, renewables are not growing fast enough to meet that target under current policy and market conditions." Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.

The International Energy Agency report believes that the global development of renewable energy is unbalanced, especially the slow development of hydrogen energy and bioenergy. In the case of hydrogen energy, although many green hydrogen energy projects have been launched in the past decade, due to slow investment progress and high production costs, only 7% of the planned capacity is expected to actually be put into production by 2030.

The IEA also pointed out that the biofuel industry will also need to accelerate development by 2030 if the global energy sector is to achieve a net zero emissions schedule. In addition, due to tight global supply chains, rising costs and long project licensing cycles, the development of the global wind power industry is also facing many challenges, requiring more policy support from countries.

In the process of renewable energy development, different economies are also facing different problems and challenges. For developed economies, policy uncertainty, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, and cumbersome administrative approval procedures are the main challenges to the development of renewable energy. For most emerging and developing economies, the focus is on addressing the financing, governance and regulation of the renewable energy sector.

"With onshore wind and solar currently having a cost advantage over fossil fuel generation in most countries around the world, the biggest challenge to achieving this goal is how to rapidly scale up the financing and deployment of renewable energy in most emerging and developing economies." Birol said the IEA will be watching closely to see if countries live up to their promises and implement appropriate policies.

China is a leader in renewable energy

The International Energy Agency said in the report that China is the global leader in the field of renewable energy. In 2023, China's newly installed wind energy capacity increased by 66% over the previous year, and China's newly installed solar PV capacity in 2023 is equivalent to the new global solar PV capacity in 2022. China is expected to account for 60 percent of new global renewable power generation by 2028, and "China has a vital role to play in achieving the global goal of tripling renewable energy."

In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and maintained an international lead. At present, nearly 90% of the global photovoltaic industry's production capacity is in China; Among the top 10 companies in the world for photovoltaic modules, Chinese companies account for 7. While reducing costs and increasing efficiency, Chinese enterprises have also increased research and development efforts to tackle a new generation of photovoltaic cell technology.

China's exports of wind power equipment are also growing rapidly. According to relevant statistics, about 60% of wind power equipment in the global market is produced in China. Since 2015, the compound annual growth rate of China's wind power equipment export installed capacity has exceeded 50%. The UAE's first wind power project undertaken by a Chinese enterprise was officially put into operation recently, with a total installed capacity of 117.5 MW. The first centralized wind power project in Bangladesh invested by Chinese enterprises was also connected to the grid not long ago, which can provide 145 million KWH of green electricity to the local area every year. While pursuing its own green development, China has also provided support for more countries to develop renewable energy and help achieve global climate goals.

Abdulaziz Obaideli, chief operating officer of ABU Dhabi Future Energy Company, said that the company has close cooperation with a number of Chinese enterprises, and many projects are supported by Chinese technology, and China has made great contributions to the development of the global new energy industry and the fight against climate change. Ahmed Mohamed Masina, Egypt's deputy Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy, said that China's contribution in this field is of great significance to the global energy transition and climate governance.

The International Energy Agency believes that China has technological, cost advantages and long-term stable policy environment in the field of renewable energy, and has played an important role in promoting the global energy revolution, especially in reducing the cost of global solar power generation.