Shipbuilding industry has entered a new round of rapid development

At present, the global shipbuilding capacity is stable at about 120 million deadweight tons, the annual completion of about 90 million deadweight tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 75%, which is at the normal level of industrial development. Judging from this, this round of capacity correction in the world shipbuilding industry is basically coming to an end. In the future, the growth of demand for new shipbuilding and the rise in raw material prices will significantly drive the rise in the price of new ships.

We believe that the long-awaited market recovery of shipbuilding industry enterprises is in front of us, the long-term passive market position is changing, and after the great waves, the shipbuilding industry will be left with a broader stage.

Second, zero-carbon ships have changed from a future trend to a reality

With the continuous promotion of IMO's global shipping greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy, the world has set off new technology and new products such as ammonia powered ships, hydrogen powered ships, Marine carbon capture, carbon dioxide carriers, hydrogen carriers and other R&D competitions. New energy power, which was mainly applied in the field of small special ships in the past, continues to spread to conventional ships such as container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers, and car carriers, and the demand for new shipbuilding market is rapidly shifting to green ships. In the new shipbuilding orders, the proportion of dual-fuel or clean-fuel ships has reached about 30%, and the era of green ships has come.

However, due to the parallel development of different technical routes and the lobbying and voice of different international organizations for their own interests, the maritime community has not yet formed a unified opinion on the development direction of ship power.

First, any energy application can theoretically be carbon neutral.

At present, the core goal of the international community to promote climate governance is to achieve carbon neutrality, rather than eliminate fossil energy or any other kind of energy. At present, the main Marine fuels explored by the Marine industry, whether hydrogen, ammonia, LNG, LPG or methanol, can achieve carbon neutrality during energy conversion or use.

Hydrogen and ammonia can be produced by electrolysis/synthesis of renewable energy sources or by fossil energy sources; LNG itself can be a fossil fuel, but also through renewable energy synthesis, or through biomass fermentation; Methanol (CH4O) can be prepared from fossil fuels, renewable energy sources, or biomass fermentation; LPG is a mixture that is mainly formed during fossil energy extraction or refining.

These fuels are either inherently zero-carbon, even if they are fossil fuels or derived from fossil fuels, supplemented by carbon capture processes, and can still be carbon neutral. In addition, fuels such as fuel oil, LNG, and LPG from fossil energy sources can also meet regulatory requirements by paying carbon taxes or purchasing carbon credits after use.

Second, the type of fuel used by ships depends on the energy supply system formed by the whole society.

With the advancement of the global climate governance process, there will be a parallel development of three primary energy sources, including renewable energy, biomass energy and fossil energy, and have an impact on the secondary energy structure.

Electricity will still be the largest secondary energy, wind, light, water and other renewable energy generation energy storage needs, conducive to the development of hydrogen/ammonia fuel. At present, China, Japan, Europe and other countries and regions, all regard hydrogen energy as the focus of the future energy supply system.

The development of biomass energy is conducive to LNG, methanol and other fuels to expand the market space, Europe, the United States has carried out large-scale use of biomass energy. China has a huge agricultural scale and a large population, and the scale advantage of developing biomass energy, especially biogas fermentation, is more obvious.

The clean utilization of traditional fossil energy can support hydrogen, ammonia, LNG and methanol, and these four fuels may become fuel types for large-scale application in the whole society.

Finally, under the current understanding, LNG, liquid ammonia and methanol are most likely to become the main fuels for ocean-going ships.

As a Marine fuel, LNG has been applied on a large scale in real ships, and the supply chain system has been formed. Later, by installing Marine carbon capture devices, or using synthetic natural gas and biological natural gas, zero emissions can be achieved.

Liquid ammonia powered Marine main engine is currently under development, and due to the development of Marine renewable energy, liquid ammonia as a way of energy storage and transportation, the application prospects in Marine related industries are generally optimistic.

The application of methanol does not need to make major changes to the Marine internal combustion engine, if the biological methanol enters the field of transportation on a large scale (especially heavy trucks), not only can directly replace the traditional Marine fuel oil, but also can be used as a supplement fuel for LNG-powered ships and ammonia fuel ships, improving the flexibility of Marine fuel.