Viscose filament industry pattern optimization, leading enterprises are expected to be strong

1. Viscose fiber is a chemical fiber with a long history, and its principle is to let the cellulose in the plant precipitate and spin, which is mainly divided into viscose filament and viscose staple fiber. The upstream of viscose fiber is mainly the dissolved pulp produced by cotton, wood chips and bamboo chips.

Viscose filament: viscose filament, also known as "rayon", is a substitute for natural silk, with smooth and cool, breathable, anti-static, gorgeous dyeing and other characteristics, in the main textile fiber moisture content most in line with the physiological requirements of human skin, mainly used in high-end clothing and home textiles. Viscose staple fiber: Viscose staple fiber is commonly known as "artificial cotton, rayon or viscose fiber", which is similar to natural cotton and has the characteristics of "better than cotton for cotton". It has rich raw material resources, good moisture absorption, easy dyeing and comfortable wearing of fabrics. Viscose staple fiber products are widely used in the textile field, which can be pure spun human cotton yarn, and can also be blended with cotton and polyester staple fiber to make blended yarn.

In terms of output, from 2017 to 2021, the output showed a trend of first increase and then decrease; In 2019, the output of viscose filament reached 184,000 tons, the highest in the past year, an increase of 0.9%. Since 2020, the domestic viscose filament productivity has weakened, and the output has declined year after year, to the end of 2021, the production capacity is 161,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year. The main reason is that in the past two years, domestic enterprises have been limited by the epidemic stoppage and production, and under the superimposed industry adjustment and reshuffle, backward production capacity has gradually cleared. In terms of production capacity, the global viscose filament production capacity is highly concentrated, China is the world's largest main producing area, and its viscose filament production capacity accounts for about 75.0% of the world's;

At present, the company's viscose filament production capacity is about 80,000 tons/year, which is in a leading position in China. The company's viscose filament is mainly exported, and its downstream customers have spread to more than 20 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, as well as Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Pakistan, India, Italy, Germany and many other countries and regions. The company's initial design capacity of viscose staple fiber is 100,000 tons/year, after process optimization and process reengineering, the actual production capacity can reach 120,000 tons/year, although it is not among the best in the country, but effectively fill the company's viscose fiber products lack, and viscose filament is beneficial to expand the overall sales. In recent years, viscose filament production capacity and demand are relatively stable, so the price change is relatively stable, but with the upgrading of consumption and industry concentration continues to increase, in the long run, the market prospects are still good.

2. Earnings forecast

2.1 Main business split and valuation comparison

Carbon fiber business: the current development momentum of carbon fiber is good, the prospect is broad, especially the high prosperity of civil large tow carbon fiber track, the rapid growth of new energy based on wind and light has driven the demand for civil large tow carbon fiber, and the market size is relatively considerable. With the gradual maturity of the carbon fiber industry and the smooth advancement of terminal application technology in recent years, production costs have also been reduced, and large tow carbon fiber is expected to open more industrial use scenarios in the future.

Previously, the total investment of Jilin Chemical fiber 12,000 tons of carbon fiber composite project was 1.458 billion yuan, mainly through the formation of new production capacity of 12,000 tons of carbon fiber composite project, according to the company's plan to issue additional and non-public stock issuance committee meeting preparation of the letter of reply to the report shows that after the completion of the project, The operating income will be 1.539 billion yuan/year, and the total profit will be 142 million yuan/year. Superposition Jilin Kemek 600 tons/year small tow carbon fiber production capacity and Jilin Baojing 8000 tons/year 25-50K carbon fiber production capacity (form an annual output of 12,000 tons of carbon fiber production capacity by the end of 2025); In addition, Jilin Chemical Fiber Group 100% subsidiary Jilin Guoxing has a production capacity of 18,000 tons/year (expected to reach 60,000 tons of annual production capacity by 2025), the future is expected to inject the controlling shares of Guoxing carbon fiber into the listed company. Jilin Economic and Technological Development Zone, where the company is located, is a national high-tech industrialization base for carbon fiber, which has formed industrial aggregation and supporting in the upstream and downstream areas of the carbon fiber industry. At the same time, as the manufacturing cost of carbon fiber and its composite materials continues to decline, the downstream application space will expand. In the future, the company is expected to join hands with Jilin Carbon Valley to build a domestic carbon fiber "raw wire - carbon wire - composite" integrated industrial chain cluster.

Adhesive filament: In recent years, the company has seized the opportunity to expand production capacity, seized the market vacated by enterprises in the industry, making the market share gradually increase, the current company's viscose filament production capacity of about 80,000 tons/year, in a leading position in the country. In recent years, viscose filament production capacity and demand are relatively stable, so the price change is relatively stable, but with the upgrading of consumption and industry concentration continues to increase, in the long run, the market prospects are still good.