Demand analysis of current situation and innovative development of hydropower
Innovative development situation
The global energy transformation is accelerating, the proportion of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation is rapidly increasing, and the planning, construction, safe operation and economic dispatch of traditional power systems are facing new challenges and problems. From 2010 to 2021, the global wind power installed capacity has maintained rapid growth, with an average growth rate of 15%; China is growing at an average rate of 25% a year; The growth rate of global photovoltaic power generation in the past 10 years has reached 31%. The power system with a high proportion of new energy is faced with major problems such as difficulty in balancing supply and demand, increased difficulty in system operation control and increased stability risk caused by the reduction of moment of inertia, a substantial increase in demand for peak load capacity and a rise in system operation costs, and it is urgent to work together from the power supply, grid and load side to promote the solution of these problems. Hydropower is an important regulating power supply, with large moment of inertia, fast response speed, flexible operation mode and other characteristics, in solving these new challenges and problems has a natural advantage.
The level of electrification continues to improve, and the requirements for safe and reliable power supply in economic and social operations continue to increase. Over the past 50 years, the level of global electrification has continued to improve, the proportion of electricity in terminal energy use has gradually increased, and the terminal electric energy substitution represented by electric vehicles has accelerated. Modern economy and society are increasingly dependent on electric power, and electric power has become the basic means of production for economic and social operation. Safe and reliable power supply is an important guarantee for modern people's production and life. Large-scale power outage not only brings huge economic losses, but also may bring serious social chaos, power security has become the core content of energy security and even national security. The external service of the new power system requires the continuous improvement of the reliability of the safe power supply, while the internal development faces the continuous increase of the risk factors that seriously threaten the power safety.
New technologies continue to emerge and be applied in the power system, and the degree of intelligence and complexity of the power system are significantly improved. Power electronic devices are widely used in all aspects of power transmission and distribution, resulting in significant changes in the load characteristics and system characteristics of power system, leading to profound changes in the operating mechanism of power system. Information communication, control and intelligent technologies are widely used in all aspects of power system production and management, and the intelligence level of power system has been significantly improved, which can adapt to large-scale online analysis and decision support analysis. Distributed generation is connected to the user side of the distribution network on a large scale, and the power flow direction of the grid has changed from unidirectional to bidirectional or even multi-directional. Various types of smart electrical equipment emerge in an endless stream, smart meters are widely used, the number of power system access terminals is growing exponentially, and information security has become an important source of risk for power systems.
The reform and development of electric power is getting better, and the policy environment such as electricity price is gradually improving. With the rapid development of China's economy and society, the power industry has experienced a huge leap from small to large, from weak to strong, from following to leading. In the system, from the government to the enterprise to run electricity, from one plant network to separate the plant network, moderate competition, from the plan gradually to the market, and walked out of a road suitable for China's national conditions of power development. China's capacity and level of power technology and equipment manufacturing and construction are among the world's best, and the indicators of universal power service and power business environment are gradually improving. China has built and operated the world's largest and most technologically advanced power system. China's electricity market has made steady progress, and the construction path of a unified electricity market from local to regional to national is clear, adhering to the Chinese line of seeking truth from facts. Policy mechanisms such as electricity price have gradually been straightened out, and an electricity price mechanism suitable for the development of pumped storage has been initially established, providing a policy environment for the realization of the economic value of the innovative development of hydropower.
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