Futures What are the types of chemical futures

4. Don't lose the trend to arbitrage

The last thing we want to talk about today is definitely everyone's most concerned, everyone wants me to explain why PTA this wave is, very simple, we have to go back to the original arbitrage, that is, the term set. When we look at a variety, if we only calculate the spread of arbitrage, such as the cost of transportation, the cost of quality inspection, the cost of storage, and the cost of capital, then there will definitely be problems. Why will there be problems? Because we have not actually tested the market support, we have not considered how the position will be flat. What are we hoping for? We finally hope that the bulls will take these goods, it is better to discount the end, right? Better than this is that the long simply can not pick up I directly hit you, this time just like I said before the road to get rich quickly came again, I on the number plus a little short open, do a two-to-one, three-to-one, or I a ton of goods don't call, anyway, someone will call, that year methanol is so dead, chaos.

Chemical futures started late in China, and the products include polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride and polypropylene contracts.

The general situation analysis of the development of domestic chemical futures is as follows:

China's chemical futures market has developed rapidly in recent years, and the unilateral total turnover has remained above 200 million lots per year, which is in sharp contrast to the depressed situation of foreign chemical futures. From the perspective of China's petrochemical industry scale, industrial development stage and the cultivation of futures market, this paper compares the foreign situation, analyzes the reasons for the active chemical futures market, and puts forward suggestions for the future development.

Domestic chemical futures development overview

China's chemical futures market has been running successfully for six and a half years. From the perspective of variety system construction, PTA, LLDPE, PVC and methanol four chemical varieties have been listed successively, covering the fields of petrochemical and coal chemical industry. From the perspective of market liquidity, the trading volume of chemical futures has remained stable after rapid growth, and the annual trading volume (unilateral) has been higher than 200 million lots in recent years. In the same period, the variety system of foreign chemical futures market is relatively simple, and the trading volume is extremely low, which is relatively depressed.

Factors affecting the activity of chemical futures

The reason why China's chemical futures market is active, the huge scale of the petrochemical industry has laid the foundation for its elements, the characteristics of the industrial development stage determines that customers have a strong demand for it, and the favorable conditions such as policies and competitive atmosphere provide a strong guarantee for its cultivation.

Industrial scale lays the foundation of factors

China's petrochemical industry has a huge scale and rapid development, which has laid a solid foundation of material resources and elements for the active chemical futures market.

In recent years, the output value and profit of China's petrochemical industry have increased significantly, and occupy an important position in the national economy. In 2012, the total output value of domestic petrochemical industry reached 12.24 trillion yuan, the actual investment in fixed assets was 1.76 trillion yuan, the sales revenue was 12.03 trillion yuan, and the total import and export volume of the industry was 637.594 billion US dollars.

In terms of production and sales volume, China's crude oil and natural gas production in 2012 was about 304 million tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 3.4%; The total output of major chemicals was about 460 million tons, an increase of 8.1%. Apparent oil and gas consumption of 622 million tons (oil equivalent), up 6.5% year-on-year; The total apparent consumption of major chemicals was about 434 million tons, an increase of about 7%.

Among the listed chemical futures varieties, PTA, PVC and methanol have obvious comparative advantages in material resources. The capacity of PTA and PVC in China is much higher than that of Europe, the United States and India, and the capacity of methanol is close to half of the world's total capacity. At the same time, as a net importer of the above three chemical varieties, China's scale advantage in its consumption is more obvious. In terms of polyethylene, although China's output advantage is not obvious, the consumption has exceeded the United States since 2008, and the gap gradually widened. Therefore, the four listed chemical futures in China have obvious comparative advantages in material resources.

Industry decentralization provides the premise of marketization

Compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States, China's petrochemical industry has not yet completed the integration at this stage, showing the characteristics of a large number of enterprises, dispersed production and consumption, and developed spot trade, which has brought huge demand for futures hedging. In 2012, there were 27,208 domestic petrochemical enterprises above designated size in the whole industry (main income of more than 20 million yuan). A large number of enterprises are distributed in various chemical sub-industries, resulting in a highly decentralized petrochemical industry. In PTA production enterprises, private enterprises occupy nearly 70% of the market share. In recent years, the polyethylene industry, which used to be more concentrated, has become more dispersed with the production of coal to olefin and methanol to olefin. Downstream of both, the polyester synthesis and plastics processing industries are more fragmented. The highly decentralized petrochemical industry is conducive to the market-oriented formation of chemical prices, while increasing price volatility, reducing the possibility of price manipulation, and conducive to the development of chemical futures market.