Downstream demand boom recovery, chemical fiber industry ushered in a cyclical boom reversal

Support, the chemical fiber industry is expected to usher in a cyclical boom reversal.

Where we innovate

We analyze the large cycle of capital expenditure of chemical fiber industry and judge the current capital expenditure of chemical fiber industry

At the historical stage of the great cycle. In addition, the changes in downstream demand for chemical fiber since the epidemic in the early 20 years were explored in detail

This paper analyzes the influence of the recovery of industry prosperity on the valuation trend of chemical fiber industry

BRRR. At the end of 2019, the capital expenditure of the chemical fiber industry slowed down, the new production capacity was basically ended, and the industry supply bottomed out.

In the second quarter of 2010, the domestic epidemic gradually came under control, the foreign epidemic worsened, and a large number of overseas orders were transferred to China.

The export demand of downstream textile clothing of chemical fiber increased significantly, the operating rate of domestic downstream enterprises increased, and the inventory continued to decline;

2020Q4 so far, with the gradual recovery of overseas demand, the demand for chemical fiber industry continues to pick up, and downstream enterprises take the initiative

Replenishment, the profitability of main products has rebounded, the market attention of the chemical fiber industry has increased, and the valuation has entered the repair stage.

Cyclical business continues to rise.

We analyzed the supply and demand of each sub-industry of polyester filament, spandex and viscose staple fiber. downstream

Demand picked up, polyester filament inventory dropped to a historic low, the future of filament new capacity stable, industry concentration

Continuous improvement; Spandex inventory fell to low levels, price spreads rose to historic highs, new capacity delivery slowed, and industry concentration

Continuous improvement; Viscose staple fiber destocking trend is obvious, the price spread is expected to usher in a turning point, while small and medium-sized production capacity withdrawal push

The concentration of dynamic industries has been strengthened. The supply and demand pattern of three types of chemical fiber products will be improved, and the industry will usher in a cycle reversal.

Investment view

In view of the epidemic situation at home and abroad is expected to improve, crude oil prices to recover to the pre-epidemic level, comprehensive industry demand, storage

Deposit and price difference changes, we believe that the downstream textile and clothing industry demand will drive the whole chemical fiber industry boom rise.

The superposition of new production capacity has slowed down, small and medium-sized production capacity has withdrawn, and the industry supply and demand pattern is expected to usher in marginal improvement. Recommended

Chemical fiber industry related leaders: polyester filament recommended Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Oriental Shenghong, Tongkun Shares,

Hengyi Petrochemical and New Fengming (first coverage); Spandex recommended Huafeng chemical; Viscose staple fiber recommended Sanyou chemical