After a major shock to the global energy supply system, EU imports of natural gas, oil and condensate have been affected. In the long run, it will take 20 to 30 years for the EU to replace most fossil energy with non-fossil energy. In many scenarios where oil and gas are now used, it would be technically difficult to replace it with coal, and CO2 emissions would increase significantly.
The replacement of oil will be faster, but the replacement of natural gas will require the construction and expansion of existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) port terminals, which will take about three years at the earliest.
In 2021, China imported more than 70 million tons of LNG, the world's largest LNG importer, a considerable part of which is spot, and the price fluctuates with market demand. About 70% of China's oil and 40% of natural gas consumption rely on imports, the global oil and gas prices soar, is bound to have a negative impact on China's production costs of oil and gas costs accounted for relatively high industry and people's lives.
It is important to note in particular that the European Union has huge gas reservoirs. In Germany, for example, gas storage can store three months of gas consumption. In this way, the EU will be able to purchase LNG in large quantities around the world during the off-season of global gas use and store it in gas storage tanks for the peak season of natural gas use - winter heating in the Northern Hemisphere. This has pushed up the global spot price of natural gas during the off-season.
Now, the heating season in most parts of China has passed, but the factory price of domestic liquefied natural gas has remained at about 7,000 yuan/ton, which is about twice the price of the same period in previous years.
Many enterprises that use natural gas in China produce in the non-heating season, stop production in the heating season when natural gas is in short supply and the price is higher, and give natural gas to residents for heating. Now in the off-season, the price rise of liquefied natural gas is bound to greatly increase the production cost of those enterprises whose natural gas costs account for a higher proportion of production costs, and push up the sales price of products, which will adversely affect the national economy and people's lives.
For example, China's building materials industry, including cement, glass, ceramics (including sintered bricks) enterprises, in recent years in the implementation of the process of coal to gas, will use a large number of coal and coal to gas to provide heat furnaces to use natural gas to provide heat. The price of natural gas has risen sharply, and the production costs of these enterprises have increased significantly.
Therefore, China should vigorously develop the energy transformation to replace oil and natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, as a major and urgent project to carry out. It shall include, and not only include, the following tasks:
One is to improve the efficiency of the use of natural gas, such as making full use of the waste heat in the flue gas emitted after natural gas combustion to save the amount of natural gas.
The second is to immediately suspend coal to gas projects in all walks of life, and consider using other methods as far as possible.
The third is to replace natural gas with biomass and surplus solar electricity in industrial production. For example, biomass gas is used instead of natural gas as a fuel for various industrial (building materials production) kilns and natural gas power generation.
Fourth, accelerate the development of electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles to replace fuel vehicles.
The fifth is to replace natural gas boiler heating with renewable energy, cogeneration, heat pumps and industrial waste heat.
The sixth is to replace natural gas power generation with pumped storage power generation during peak hours.
Seventh, on the premise that it is technically and economically feasible, and can ensure the quality of the air, the implementation of the gas to coal project.
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wang@kongjiangauto.com