Short-term changes in the chemical industry brought about by carbon neutrality

The development process of BASF, the international chemical leader, and the experience of other global leading chemical enterprises have provided references for the development of China's chemical industry. In the context of the development of dual carbon imperative, domestic chemical enterprises should change their development ideas, from the replicative expansion model to the diversified product development model, from the upward integration of cost reduction model to the downward fine development model.

Under such a development model, we believe that chemical enterprises should seize the opportunity of industrial development, give full play to the advantages of raw materials and capital, and put technology research and development in a more important position, so that enterprises with these potential can fully adapt to the current development trend under the two-carbon policy.

Raw material enterprises to the downstream fine development

We have analyzed the raw materials for the upward integration layout of Wanhua Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical has gradually developed fine chemical products downstream along the path of raw materials and technology in recent years, and Wanhua Chemical's new materials plate has covered a number of industrial chains, which is also the development choice made by Wanhua Chemical as a leading chemical enterprise under the background of dual carbon. In addition to Wanhua Chemical, private refining and chemical enterprises with rapid development in recent years have also begun to lay out the field of new materials. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

Multi-category development under the same raw material and technology path

There are two forms of downstream development, one is the extension of the industrial chain under the same raw material, among which a number of capacities under construction by Hualu Hengsheng are mainly in this form of development mode: Relying on the coal gasification platform and the extracted petrochemical raw material benzene, Hualu Hengsheng is extending downstream along a number of industrial chains such as cyclohexanone - caprolactam -PA6, adipate - adiponitron-hexanediamine -PA66, ethylene glycol -DMCEMC/DEC. This development model is refined development along the same raw material to the downstream. Most of these enterprises have large production scale of bulk raw materials, such as refining and chemical enterprises such as Dongfang Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Petrochemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Baofeng Energy and other coal chemical enterprises, as well as phosphorus chemical, fluorine chemical industry chain related enterprises with resource advantages.

The other form of development mainly relies on its own technological advantages, and multiple industrial chains extend downstream to form a platform enterprise with the same technology and multiple industrial chains for coordinated development, among which a more typical enterprise is Wanrun: Relying on its rich accumulation of chemical synthesis technology, Wanrun Shares have a layout in many fields such as liquid crystal materials, OLED materials, zeolite environmental protection materials, medicine, semiconductor materials and lithium battery materials. This type of chemical enterprises have rich experience in chemical synthesis research and development, typical enterprises include Xinhe Cheng, Wanrun shares and so on.

Multi-variety, platform-type development in the same application scenario

In addition to the extension of the industrial chain based on technology and raw materials, the development model of providing comprehensive solutions based on the same application scenario will also become the trend direction of the future fine development of the chemical industry.

Wanhua Chemical's product layout is a representative of multi-category solutions in the same application scenario. Although the product types of Wanhua Chemical are more complex, the terminal ideas of product development are many representative industries, and the automobile industry chain is an important thinking destination for Wanhua Chemical to develop products. Wanhua Chemical products are used in automotive interior, exterior, structural components and new energy vehicle batteries and other components. The POE that is being laid out is an important material for automotive lightweight, and the layout of terpolymer materials, electrolyte and other directions is another important direction of Wanhua in the field of new energy vehicles.

3. Characteristics of enterprises with future development potential

Through reviewing the ranking changes of several important indicators of A-share chemical listed companies, we believe that chemical enterprises should have the ability to grasp the industrial trend, and on this basis, give full play to their capital advantages, research and development advantages, and the courage to invest capital, and have the development opportunity in the new situation of dual-carbon.

3.1. Grasp the industrial opportunities, development depends on choice

Because of the special attributes of the middle reaches of the chemical industry, the fields involved in the listed companies in the industry cover most manufacturing fields, and the changes in the industry trend have brought about obvious changes in the chemical industry leaders. The cyclical rotation of the development trend of the industry and the rapid development of the emerging industry, every five years to follow the change of industrial trends, chemical leaders also change with. With the rise of new energy-related industries under the carbon neutral policy in recent years, especially the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, Njie Shares, Tianci Materials and other new energy segment leaders began to occupy the top ten market capitalization list. In the five years from 2015 to 2020, the rapid development of private refining and chemical enterprises has made refining and chemical enterprises quickly enter the top ten.