"Gas" natural gas power generation ① : As a clean energy, the role is quite awkward

Since the 1990s, China's natural gas power generation industry has experienced nearly three decades of continuous development. But today, it is still difficult to get rid of the relatively embarrassing role: clean and low-carbon gas electricity is essentially fossil energy, the cost of power generation is not competitive with coal power, and it is not as "zero-carbon clean" as wind and solar power generation, and its living space is double squeezed by coal power and new energy. "No name, no status", although it is a joke in the industry, but it is the true portrayal of gas and electricity.

With the rapid development of the domestic energy and power industry, China's installed capacity of coal power, hydropower, wind power and solar power ranks first in the world, the installed capacity of nuclear power commercial operation ranks third in the world, and the scale under construction ranks first in the world. The installed capacity of clean energy power generation has increased to about 40%. In contrast, by the end of 2020, the installed capacity of domestic gas power generation was 98.02 million kilowatts, accounting for 4.45% of the total installed power generation, far lower than the global average of about a quarter. The share of electricity generation is only 3.26%, which is also well below the global average of 23%.

In the official statistical caliber of the industry, gas and electricity are grouped under the name of "thermal power", and there is no official "name". Compared with coal power plants, the carbon emission level of gas power plants is about 50% of that of coal power plants, but the average generating hours of gas turbines in China are only less than 70% of that of coal power plants.

In the downstream gas consumption scale of natural gas, gas and electricity are ranked after urban gas and industrial fuel. Looking horizontally and vertically, gas electricity is like a wronged "doormat" that has been dormant for a long time. Although the average annual growth rate of gas power installed capacity reached 9.69% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the real "spring" of the gas power generation industry will always arrive.

Constrained by "qi", it is difficult for gas and electricity to enter the C position

Gas price and gas source are the "bottleneck" that restricts the natural gas power generation industry in China for a long time, and the economic shortboard has suppressed the value of its low-carbon environmental protection advantages and flexible power sources. "It is not that the electric people are not good, but subject to 'gas'." A senior practitioner in the gas and electricity industry joked that either the gas source is out of breath, or the gas price is too expensive to let people go.

This has led to widespread losses in domestic natural gas power generation enterprises. Faced with high fuel costs, many governments have adopted measures such as financial subsidies and two-part electricity prices to solve the problem. However, with the expansion of the installed scale of gas electricity, the pressure of cost relief is also increasing.

"High gas prices, interruptions in gas sources and imperfect policies are the three major problems facing the development of gas and electricity." Guo Jiaofeng, a researcher at the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy at the Development Research Center of The State Council, told The paper (www.thepaper.cn) that there are three "soft spots" in the gas and electricity industry. The most fundamental problem is that the price of natural gas as a fuel is generally too high. Generally, gas-fired power plants pay between 2.5 yuan and 3 yuan per cubic meter of gas. "This leads to the gas unit to maintain capital, the price must reach 0.6 yuan/KWH, compared with hydropower, coal, nuclear power, wind power, photovoltaic power generation, gas power in the price is not competitive."

Zhu Xingshan, deputy chief economist of the Planning and Planning Department of China Petroleum Group and Secretary general of the Petroleum Economics Special Committee of the Chinese Petroleum Society, also calculated an account in an online meeting in July 2020: At the gas price level of 2.2-2.7 yuan/cubic meter, the power generation cost of gas-fired power plants in typical areas of China is about 0.56-0.58 yuan/KWH, of which fuel costs account for about 70%-75%. The cost of gas electricity is between photovoltaic power generation and biomass power generation and offshore wind power.

The high price of gas has pushed up the price of gas and electricity, and the on-grid price of gas and electricity units has been at a high level for a long time. This determines that gas power lacks the confidence to compete with other traditional power sources in the power market competition. With the "14th Five-Year Plan" wind power, photovoltaic fully into the era of parity and bidding, the competitive pressure from the power market will increase day by day: renewable energy has no carbon emissions, and the marginal cost is close to zero, and has the most advantages in the power market.