The positioning and development path of natural gas power generation in the energy transition period

In the context of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, the task of China's energy transformation has been very clear, that is, the energy structure should be further adjusted and developed towards clean development. According to estimates, to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in China, the proportion of renewable energy on the energy supply side should not be less than 80%, and the electrification rate on the demand side should not be less than 80%[1]. Carbon neutrality is the ultimate goal in the long term, but the main goal in the near term should be to achieve a rapid peak or even decline in total carbon emissions through reliable and effective emission reduction means, and reduce the pressure brought about by achieving carbon neutrality in the future.

The power industry is one of the important sources of carbon emission and pollutant emission, among which thermal power is the biggest emitter. Natural gas power generation (or "gas power generation" or "gas power") in thermal power has been paid attention to by developed countries because of its cleanliness, environmental protection and flexibility. To replace coal power generation with natural gas power generation (or "coal-fired power generation" and "coal power"), gradually control coal consumption, on the one hand, can reduce pollutant emissions and improve air quality; On the other hand, it can reduce the carbon emission intensity of the power industry, so that the total carbon emission is controlled, or even significantly reduced.

Compared with the development path of the natural gas industry in developed countries, the consumption growth momentum after the natural gas market enters the mature stage is mainly from power generation. In order to achieve the target of 15% natural gas in primary energy consumption by 2030 [2], the large-scale development of natural gas power generation is the key, especially the new generation of power systems with large-scale and high proportion of renewable energy, which puts forward higher requirements for the flexibility, safety and controllability of the power system. The clean, low-carbon and flexible nature of natural gas power generation will play an active role in the construction of a power system dominated by renewable energy.

In 2019, China's apparent consumption of natural gas was 306.7 billion m3, accounting for about 8.3% of the primary energy consumption structure, much lower than the global average of 24%. Among them, power generation gas 55.39 billion m3, accounting for 18.1%, less than half of the global average of 39%; These two indicators are far from developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan [3-4].

This paper analyzes the important role of gas power generation in energy transformation and its advantages in environmental protection, cleanliness and flexibility compared with coal power generation, analyzes the current problems faced by gas power generation, and puts forward the positioning and development path of natural gas power generation in the future power and energy structure.

1. Gas-fired power generation plays an obvious role in energy transformation

From international experience, in the next decade, while China is promoting renewable energy power generation, there is still room for the proportion of natural gas power generation to rise. From the experience of decarbonization in energy development in Germany and the United States, while reducing the proportion of coal consumption in primary energy and increasing the proportion of renewable energy, natural gas consumption has still increased. In Germany, the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption was relatively high before 1995, reaching 41.32% in 1985, and then the use of coal and the proportion in primary energy consumption decreased rapidly, falling to 21.27% in 2017. After 2011, as the proportion of nuclear energy declined, the proportion of renewable energy such as wind energy, light energy and biological energy rose rapidly, and natural gas accounted for about 23.4% of Germany's primary energy consumption in 2018, more than coal. In 2019, the German government decided to phase out the use of coal by 2038. According to its latest "energy transition" plan, by 2030, the proportion of renewable energy generation in Germany needs to reach 65%, natural gas power generation accounted for about 18%, and carbon emissions need to be reduced by 55% compared with 1990. In the proportion of primary energy consumption in the United States, oil, natural gas and coal are absolutely dominant, maintaining more than 80% for a long time. In 2019, the share of renewable energy consumption in the United States reached 11.5%, surpassing coal for the first time in more than 130 years. At the same time, natural gas consumption reached a new high, accounting for about 32%, with the increase mainly coming from gas-fired power generation. Compared with Germany and the United States, coal accounted for 57.7% of China's primary energy in 2019, and natural gas accounted for only 8.3%. According to international experience, in the rapid development of renewable energy, natural gas, as an important transitional energy, will further play an important role, and electricity demand will be an important source of natural gas consumption growth.